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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 06Z ensembles don't look too bad: some warm days, some cool days, and, more importantly, some wet days too...

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

A veritable smorgasbord of potential weather-types one might say...?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Do I see a 31c??

15_300_2mtmpmax.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I've just noticed a change in the wording from Exeter for the next few days.. Now saying largely cloudy, becoming warmer, some rain or drizzle Sunday. The 6z mean looks to be pointing at largely fine conditions throughout.. High pressure looks to be mainly dominant.. And regarding Exeter there long range seems to be playing down any real Atlantic influence, apart from say the far NW.. also the talk of very warm even hot spells.. Well the GFS mean certainly backs up the largely fine scenario.. If this pattern does continue longer term it won't be just lockdown measures we will be concerned with, but hosepipe restrictions too.. Either way it looks set fair for the foreseeable... ☀️

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gens-21-1-144.png

gens-21-1-168.png

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gens-21-1-276.png

gens-21-1-324.png

gens-21-1-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I think if were completely dry until September, we may have some issues. On the other hand, I find it hard to believe that the reservoirs need topping up.

 

Anyway, ICON 12z is rolling out now. Should give us our first clue of where things are heading.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Just now, Djdazzle said:

Patience!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not heading the right way.

Keep calm young un, and bare in mind we only get to see an operational run with the icon.. No ensembles or anything, so can be quite difficult to draw any real conclusions.. Much better to wait for the ensembles and means from GFS and ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Keep calm young un, and bare in mind we only get to see an operational run with the icon.. No ensembles or anything, so can be quite difficult to draw any real conclusions.. Much better to wait for the ensembles and means from GFS and ECM

As well as the fact that it's usually quite a poor model!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Keep calm young un, and bare in mind we only get to see an operational run with the icon.. No ensembles or anything, so can be quite difficult to draw any real conclusions.. Much better to wait for the ensembles and means from GFS and ECM

Yep, apologies for my stupid comment. I have just deleted it. 

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The ICON was complete about 20 minutes ago and it has the lows undercutting the ridge at the end.

image.thumb.png.7c807f021eb63224b769b95a61529fa3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yep, apologies for my stupid comment. I have just deleted it. 

Wasn't a stupid comment my man, just a little over eagerness.. We need to view many runs, ensembles, means to name a few before we have the slightest bit of idea in we're our conditions are heading. I think I will reserve any kind of judgement till I've viewed UKMO, all the GFS ens and mean and then the mean from ECM.. I still feel things are looking upwards though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yep, apologies for my stupid comment. I have just deleted it. 

No need to apologise, we’re all learning in here. Probably why I hardly post in here as most, including yourself, are far more knowledgable than I am. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

UKMO again looks miles better than the GFS. Stronger ridge at 120 hours, and pressure higher. We need this evolution to come off! GFS is too flat in comparison.

Even better at 144. Game on!

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Fantastic ukmo and now gfs nearly completes the backtrack at 144 hours!nice warm ridge heading straight through the uk at 144 hours!!backed west by quite some distance compared to the 12z yesterday!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At Day 5, the GFS 12Z looks fine to me; not too hot for outdoor working, and none of that freezing cold wind around?:oldgood:

h500slp.png    

And, if the other models are really 'miles better', the future looks very bright indeed!:clapping::oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Out to 180 and GFS better than icon, that low pressure is having a difficult time in going anywhere, and those uppers are on the increase.. Me love it long time. 

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-1-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

At Day 5, the GFS 12Z looks fine to me; not too hot for outdoor working, and none of that freezing cold wind around?:oldgood:

h500slp.png    

And, if the other models are really 'miles better', the future looks very bright indeed!:clapping::oldlaugh:

Indeed and it goes on to build another low pressure to our south that will pump up some really warm air and bring some really useful rain.

image.thumb.png.8223119e6b8eb27295e1da9c5adea770.png

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