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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Reliable timeframe, changes in the orientation of the ever omni-present high that has stuck around and shifted position since mid March it seems, through the rest of the week it begins to sink south drawing in milder flow from off the atlantic over the top, eventually pulling in some warmer uppers from the SW, temps rising bit by bit from Thursday (tomorrow looks a cold day indeed for May), sunshine levels will vary quite a bit of cloud at first, becoming sunny by weekend for south and east, but western and northern parts could then be plagued by lots of low cloud and dank conditions thanks to a tropical maritime airstream and long SW flow, drizzle or light rain at times here.

Into next week, general theme from the models is for a continued warm up with dry settled weather - heights building in situ over the UK. By mid May, we can begin to develop our own warm pool especially when there are light winds and strong heights overhead, the sun has the same strength as in late July.

Not so sure heights will advect sufficiently east to draw in very warm continental air as shown by ECM, we have a classic trough-ridge-trough pattern, the trough to the NE could well scupper this from happening, but as said we don't necessarily need heights to do this, the heat will build if they stay in situ at this time of year.

Quite a topsy turvy May this could turn out to be - but quite normal for May, which is renowned for being the month when the atlantic is at its quietest, and we can see marked switcharounds.

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Posted (edited)

No surprises the ECM was at the top end of the ensembles, its not a massive outlier (the majority of the grouping was still pretty decent) however even with that setup there's still not really a big hot pool to tap into, with the exception of a few small pockets the 15C 850 isotherm is way down south over the southern med, the uppers are still in the process of recovering from the current cool down even that far south even at day 10. Still max temps probably would be in the upper 20's given dry ground and the fact insolation is strong and day on day heating now takes effect i.e. gross warming trend despite maybe not exceptional uppers and till cool SST.s

The May record of 32.8C has hung around for a while now without being really challenged, would only need a tweak in the synoptics and it could be under threat...... 

 

 

Edited by Alderc
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10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No surprises the ECM was at the top end of the ensembles, its not a massive outlier (the majority of the grouping was still pretty decent) however even with that setup there's still not really a big hot pool to tap into, with the exception of a few small pockets the 15C 850 isotherm is way down south over the southern med, the uppers are still in the process of recovering from the current cool down even that far south even at day 10. Still max temps probably would be in the upper 20's given dry ground and the fact insolation is strong and day on day heating now takes effect i.e. gross warming trend despite maybe not exceptional uppers and till cool SST.s

The May record of 32.8C has hung around for a while now without being really challenged, would only need a tweak in the synoptics and it could be under threat...... 

 

 

Soil moisture deficits are now really low...which would help boost temps a little higher.

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23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reliable timeframe, changes in the orientation of the ever omni-present high that has stuck around and shifted position since mid March it seems, through the rest of the week it begins to sink south drawing in milder flow from off the atlantic over the top, eventually pulling in some warmer uppers from the SW, temps rising bit by bit from Thursday (tomorrow looks a cold day indeed for May), sunshine levels will vary quite a bit of cloud at first, becoming sunny by weekend for south and east, but western and northern parts could then be plagued by lots of low cloud and dank conditions thanks to a tropical maritime airstream and long SW flow, drizzle or light rain at times here.

Into next week, general theme from the models is for a continued warm up with dry settled weather - heights building in situ over the UK. By mid May, we can begin to develop our own warm pool especially when there are light winds and strong heights overhead, the sun has the same strength as in late July.

Not so sure heights will advect sufficiently east to draw in very warm continental air as shown by ECM, we have a classic trough-ridge-trough pattern, the trough to the NE could well scupper this from happening, but as said we don't necessarily need heights to do this, the heat will build if they stay in situ at this time of year.

Quite a topsy turvy May this could turn out to be - but quite normal for May, which is renowned for being the month when the atlantic is at its quietest, and we can see marked switcharounds.

Whatever happened to imminent Atlantic zonality??

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3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Whatever happened to imminent Atlantic zonality??

Yes I was expecting a bit more oomph in the atlantic end of this week and into next week based on jetstream profile forecasts, alas it will keeping on knocking on our door.. 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes I was expecting a bit more oomph in the atlantic end of this week and into next week based on jetstream profile forecasts, alas it will keeping on knocking on our door.. 

I trust you didn't think I was being nasty - just reflecting the uncertainty.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Either GFS is on to something or its completely at odds with the GEM & ECM T192 charts, maybe its over progressiveness coming in.....

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Posted (edited)

GFS conundrum to be resolved shortly, here 18z T180 v 12z T186:

image.thumb.jpg.affa3f711ee5645e495996f743a0f3d3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fb7abb414a99fa6eacddb034a0b86fd8.jpg

Notice the trough holds out west on the 18z, I think this run will be OK, well maybe not!   Still think GFS bias in play , here.  Nothing is simple, is it? Living with a virus that will destroy practically  everyone's way of life, as much by intervention, as direct effects?  We will see....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted (edited)

Cmon GFS we need some summer weather, please  ahem modules , if not I’m off to view the Navgem .

Edited by Mark wheeler
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19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS conundrum to be resolved shortly, here 18z T180 v 12z T186:

image.thumb.jpg.affa3f711ee5645e495996f743a0f3d3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fb7abb414a99fa6eacddb034a0b86fd8.jpg

Notice the trough holds out west on the 18z, I think this run will be OK, well maybe not!   Still think GFS bias in play , here.  Nothing is simple, is it? Living with a virus that will destroy practically  everyone's way of life, as much by intervention, as direct effects?  We will see....

Mike , Didn’t someone mention the other night that they thought from the charts they saw the Atlantic ready to pounce , I think his name might have been Damian ( aptly named , Sorry Damian ) I see Matt Hugo has also tweeted that he sees a possibility of more unsettled conditions towards the end of May .

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5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Mike , Didn’t someone mention the other night that they thought from the charts they saw the Atlantic ready to pounce , I think his name might have been Damian ( aptly named , Sorry Damian ) I see Matt Hugo has also tweeted that he sees a possibility of more unsettled conditions towards the end of May .

Yes it was me, based on jetstream profile forecasts. The tilt of the high pressure all important , if it elongated more on a ne-sw axis it allows the trough to take on a more positive alignment which produces the classic sw airstream with fronts getting into northern and western parts forcing down on the high, conversely if they build on a more n-s axis or more so NW-se axis then the trough either sits in situ splitting or takes on a negative alignment, energy then forced under the heights siding a cut off low scenario to our SW. There are hints the Atlantic wants to take control even this weekend with a sw flow then westerly flow at least in the north, important to take note of subtle changes in where energy is transferred.

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21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes it was me, based on jetstream profile forecasts. The tilt of the high pressure all important , if it elongated more on a ne-sw axis it allows the trough to take on a more positive alignment which produces the classic sw airstream with fronts getting into northern and western parts forcing down on the high, conversely if they build on a more n-s axis or more so NW-se axis then the trough either sits in situ splitting or takes on a negative alignment, energy then forced under the heights siding a cut off low scenario to our SW. There are hints the Atlantic wants to take control even this weekend with a sw flow then westerly flow at least in the north, important to take note of subtle changes in where energy is transferred.

Interesting , obviously I hope you are wrong ?

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Posted (edited)

Right , It is  late so time to bring out the comedy hour run , My run , The one and the only Navgem ......

I think some would take this , anyone ?  

C1F1C8FF-C100-4519-B874-44C799BEE135.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Just to complete the set, ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.24728a13deb77e66aa2c7d8c3d473976.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0bcbd9ff6f6adda8ea5cbe037b0d644e.jpg

But I also wanted to make a wider point tonight.  We are living in unprecedented times, and I, like, I am sure, many of you, am struggling.  As someone who is probably autistic to some extent, I'm a creature of habit, that habit included going to the pub, going to the gym, meeting people at work (without that I don't meet anyone face to face apart from my neighbours in the flats carpark, 2m apart of course). I can't do those things anymore.

So I just wanted to say thank you for a rare part of my life I can still do, thank you to all you great people who post, thank you to @Paul that Netweather still works, thanks to @SylvainTV that Meteociel still works, thanks that the models themselves still work, although without crucial aircraft data of course.  And if signs from the models are anything to go by, thanks that we get that decent summer that might take our minds off this nightmare. 

You are a sight to behold,what a great post man

i too am finding it hard and i am sure millions of people are in these unprecedented times,my daughter has ADHD/autism spectrum and it is a challenging subject but i love her so much because me and my partner was trying for a baby for 8 years and we went through artificial insemination,intrauterine insemination(IUI) to get our only child and she is worth every penny,we us humans are fighters and we will beat this virus

sorry to get all emotional because i cannot wait until this has all blown over and we can see/meet our friends and family again

now back to the models and i feel a wobble coming on from the gfs/gefs(hope it's wrong)because the outlook from them doesn't look as good as previous runs but the ECM looks trumps again,yes it was a warm outlier from it's ens and i hope that it is right going forward

i am going to give you a big smile now because look at the cpc 6-14 day 500mb anomaly charts?

610day_03.thumb.gif.9ff51f9a1b2144c1975912bedb5d961b.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.077cda61c19b32741901ef4a56dc282e.gif

gfs...get a grip.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You are a sight to behold,what a great post man

i too am finding it hard and i am sure millions of people are in these unprecedented times,my daughter has ADHD/autism spectrum and it is a challenging subject but i love her so much because me and my partner was trying for a baby for 8 years and we went through artificial insemination,intrauterine insemination(IUI) to get our only child and she is worth every penny,we us humans are fighters and we will beat this virus

sorry to get all emotional because i cannot wait until this has all blown over and we can see/meet our friends and family again

now back to the models and i feel a wobble coming on from the gfs/gefs(hope it's wrong)because the outlook from them doesn't look as good as previous runs but the ECM looks trumps again,yes it was a warm outlier from it's ens and i hope that it is right going forward

i am going to give you a big smile now because look at the cpc 6-14 day 500mb anomaly charts?

610day_03.thumb.gif.9ff51f9a1b2144c1975912bedb5d961b.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.077cda61c19b32741901ef4a56dc282e.gif

gfs...get a grip.

 

 

Hi accurate would you say the cpc charts are. Should we be worried about the gfs wobble in your opinion? Thanks in advance. Don't worry about been emotional it's a very emotional time mate. 

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1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Hi accurate would you say the cpc charts are. Should we be worried about the gfs wobble in your opinion? Thanks in advance. Don't worry about been emotional it's a very emotional time mate. 

No charts/models or anomaly's are accurate at day ten,it's just a broad-brush and %'s of a likely outcome,i think an anomaly is gathered from clusters of ens then grouped into one then averaged out to give you a mean chart

no model is infallible(solid in there %) but if they keep repeating the same scenario then it's more than likely that they may be correct

i rate the cpc about 70% correct up to day ten give or take

balloon data is an issue in these uncharted times so we won't know the true outcome.

  

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Gfs horror show this morning and certainly no sign of a hot spell. Lets hope its wide of the mark. 

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14 minutes ago, MKN said:

Gfs horror show this morning and certainly no sign of a hot spell. Lets hope its wide of the mark. 

Any chance if maps to explain?.......especially for newbies.

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5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

No charts/models or anomaly's are accurate at day ten,it's just a broad-brush and %'s of a likely outcome,i think an anomaly is gathered from clusters of ens then grouped into one then averaged out to give you a mean chart

no model is infallible(solid in there %) but if they keep repeating the same scenario then it's more than likely that they may be correct

i rate the cpc about 70% correct up to day ten give or take

balloon data is an issue in these uncharted times so we won't know the true outcome.

  

Yes I've used them for around 10 years and maybe 6-7 years ago I did tests on their accuracy which showed 70-75% accuracy to day 10 and about 60-65 % for 10-14. That is accuracy at 500 mb not the surface. One then has to interpret what the bottom 500 mb will show. By far the hardest part of doing a surface forecast.

The test lasted 2 years and covered all year round.

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23 minutes ago, MKN said:

Gfs horror show this morning and certainly no sign of a hot spell. Lets hope its wide of the mark. 

GEFS mean pretty conclusive too.

2AE47D93-5293-4B75-87AD-8CE89856226D.thumb.jpeg.5520b816551efb35ea0652150890322c.jpeg

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Looks like a stand off then. GFS ensembles and op run have now completely gone away from a warm and settled outlook. UKMO and ECM still holding firm. Let battle commence!

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