Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

06Z temperature ensembles defo headed in the right direction.

    

[Frosty.]

Well I’m not going to pretend there isn’t some absolute cack on the GEFS 6z because there is but I would be lying if I didn’t say there was some summery potential too!!!...hats off to those members bringing a welcome sense of humour during these very dark times!!!!..PS.. Happy VE day

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Gowon]

29 minutes ago, LRD said:

The stats say it was dry, warm and sunny from the NW of Scotland to the SE of England. Not sure what your South East of England comment was getting at at all. Plus, you're in Croydon. You're still saying that it's cold/cool winds that have brought the fine weather. I'm sorry, the figures for April just don't back you up. Where is the evidence that this spring has been cool? I have no idea on the frequency of E'ly winds or not. And, in some ways, it's totally irrelevant as we have had, nationwide, an unusually warm and dry and very sunny April. I'm going to leave it there as it's not model stuff but, sorry, I'm totally baffled as to why you think we've had a cool spring so far

You asked where I was living, so I answered your question? 

Yes, let's leave it there, but I admit I did say cold easterly weather when I meant to say cold easterly winds.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Blessed Weather

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

06Z temperature ensembles defo headed in the right direction.

    

Strange that the op is one of the warmer runs when this horror show for the south is being shown for Friday 15th

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, D.V.R said:

You asked where I was living, so I answered your question? 

Yes, let's leave it there, but I admit I did say cold easterly weather when I meant to say cold easterly winds.

The easterly winds have not been cold I think on coasts they have felt it a lot more, you were right April was easterly dominated see my stats below mean wind direction was ESE. I live closer to estuary and well I could say the word refreshing but in the sun it has been very pleasant, it has been a remarkable spring. Very sunny, and I would say warm, if you have had problem with the weather which is as good as it gets, there’s a problem! 

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The easterly winds have not been cold I think on coasts they have felt it a lot more, you were right April was easterly dominated see my stats below mean wind direction was ESE. I live closer to estuary and well I could say the word refreshing but in the sun it has been very pleasant, it has been a remarkable spring. Very sunny, and I would say warm, if you have had problem with the weather which is as good as it gets, there’s a problem! 

Because we all have different levels of tolerance to different weather conditions, it's a problem - is it?

Btw... Like I mentioned earlier, I'm not discounting the weather has been bliss in terms of sunshine.. (I should've posted it in the moaning thread), but I was merely moaning about the nagging easterly breeze that has accompanied the sunny weather.

Anyway, thanks for posting the stats.. It reassuring to know I wasn't imagining it.

 

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Because we all have different levels of tolerance to different weather conditions, it's a problem - is it?

Btw... Like I mentioned earlier, I'm not discounting the weather has been bliss in terms of sunshine.. (I should've posted it in the moaning thread), but I was merely moaning about the nagging easterly breeze that has accompanied the sunny weather.

Anyway, thanks for posting the stats.. It reassuring to know I wasn't imagining it.

 

That’s a fair point my mum has awful circulation she’s always cold. The best of weather was associated with E/ENE/NE winds which consumed month, surely the sunshine would take edge off? I’ve been wearing shorts since lockdown, the weather relative to norm was very good. I wouldn’t complain April is still quite early in year, might suggest your expectations are too high?

I see more easterly winds in the output however often from May onwards it is when see it being an increasingly warm direction, north/northeasterly winds however can remain a cool direction well through summer.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Daniel*

[Gowon]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s a fair point my mum has awful circulation she’s always cold. The best of weather was associated with E/ENE/NE winds which consumed month, surely the sunshine would take edge off? I’ve been wearing shorts since lockdown, the weather relative to norm was very good. I wouldn’t complain April is still quite early in year, might suggest your expectations are too high?

I see more easterly winds in the output however often from May onwards it is when see it being an increasingly warm direction, north/northeasterly winds however can remain a cool direction well through summer.

Hence why I said I hated easterly winds at this time of the year as it takes the edge off the temps, especially the mornings and evenings.

There were a few days that it was warm and I was able to get my legs out too.. 

Today's weather is perfect btw.. 

[Zak M]

Day 7 doesn't look too bad!

   

[Frosty.]

The latest output, in this case the Ukmo 12h shows a decent recovery following the brief cold plunge with the uppers (850’s) starting to warm through during next week once the arctic air is cut off and the surface conditions (2m temps) gradually becoming more pleasant..this is all helped by high pressure building in to become centred over the u k with sunny spells but certainly a short, sharp shock to the system on Sunday & early next week following all the very warm weather!!!

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Allseasons-Si]

41 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Day 7 doesn't look too bad!

   

The GEFS ens are shocking though after this cool blip

London

what happened to warming up again!!!

i really hope these don't come to fruition.

 

[Methuselah]

12Z GEFS temperature ensembles aren't all that bad. Much of a muchness, for May, I'd say?

    

And, if the op is right, a rather cool muchness!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Day 7 doesn't look too bad!

   

Mmm looks ok, nothing special though. Dry in the main but the uppers are still preety chilly. However, it looks like a toppler will follow on with high pressure ridging through the UK, followed perhaps by a return to a westerly/south westerly airstream - something that hasn't happened since mid March. 

In the meantime, a major turnaround expected in next 24-48 hrs, from summer warmth to late winter chill. Next week will see a very slow climb to something more average temp wise, remaining dry, but could be quite a cloudy dull affair for many. 

[Mike Poole]

Models at T144:

The key to some proper summer weather, and I think as I have said in previous posts that I expect us to get a proper summer this year, the key now is to curtail the tendency for high heights over Greenland, a by product of the final warming in the strat.  On the 12z suite, ECM is best at closing this down, UKMO in the middle, GFS worst.  At T144. 

[Daniel*]

We aren’t going to see any proper summer weather with these upper air patterns. Mid/high lat blocking taking control the E/NE winds look to continue for foreseeable.

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

My thoughts are we shouldn't be too worried about what's showing late next week ie cooler/unsettled weather from the Atlantic. I won't be confident about what's showing until at least next Tuesdays 12z runs are finished. Plenty of time for it to change to better warmer evolution. Remember today is Bank Holiday and less data available to add to airplane data already missing. Happy V E day everyone and stay safe. 

[Zak M]

The ECM does show some cold and perhaps unsettled weather at times especially in a couple of days time. Looking ahead, there might not be any chance of some summer like weather for a while and could turn chilly at times. I will certainly be making the most of tomorrow... also, happy VE day all!  Take care.

      

[thestixx]

On 02/05/2020 at 20:10, mb018538 said:

ECM is swinging wildly from run to run, as are most of the models to be honest. Very tough to say what will happen into next weekend and beyond.

Fwiw, I've been lurking on here since '03 unofficially, '06 officially.... There's a lot of high pressure about and it's currently the dominant force, I think it's gonna be a big player for the foreseeable!.. April was a pretty special month for sun & blue skies and the models are still showing an abundance of it..Have faith!

Edited May 8, 2020 by thestixx

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ensemble mean holding strong on the idea of heights shifting to Scandi and the start of summer, T240:

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z ensemble mean holding strong on the idea of heights shifting to Scandi and the start of summer, T240:

I like the look of that Mike

the ecm was a cold outlier just like this morning.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

We aren’t going to see any proper summer weather with these upper air patterns. Mid/high lat blocking taking control the E/NE winds look to continue for foreseeable.

 

Its an omega block - cold lovers in winter would be relishing the prospect, as you say in May not a harbinger of warmth.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

We aren’t going to see any proper summer weather with these upper air patterns. Mid/high lat blocking taking control the E/NE winds look to continue for foreseeable.

 

What kind of "Proper" summer weather are you expecting on 8th May? Why not go full hog and write off the next 4 months because there isn't anything "proper" hot on the horizon or showing up in FI.

Edited May 8, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

What kind of "Proper" summer weather are you expecting on 8th May? Why not go full hog and write off the next 4 months based on one FI chart showing a standard pattern for this time of year

Oh don’t be ridiculous I was not referring to the summer itself, I was only alluding to recent posts which seem to think high summer is always around the corner we may struggle in next few weeks I suspect. The mid term has trended cooler no notable warm up looks likely next week remaining below average. MLB doesn’t look to lose its grip ECM 12z broadly was very similar to 00z and EPS keeps Europe cool throughout. Signs there may be another cool plunge affecting much of Europe, upstream looking very blocked. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Daniel*

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, I don't think turd-polishing will do the early stages of the GFS 0Z much good; the building blocks are even in pace for a second bite at the 'cherry'!:

    

But, by Day 10 (it's always Day 10!) signs of a change are afoot, as a large area of low pressure moves into the Atlantic:

    

And, then, BUNGO!

    

    

And, even better, the operational run is on the cold side of the ensembles!

    

 

[Djdazzle]

The ECM settles down nicely from the end of next week. No heatwave, but a good run and very different to the GFS, which tries its best to make the worst case scenario out of a fairy favourable situation! It gets there in the end though.