Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Gowon]

Not looking forward to this cold easterly weather early next week.. We've had a lot of that during this spring and it's s**t..

Anyway.. Very nice synoptics on the GFS later on so hopefully it's not just a fantasy - fingers crossed 

Edited May 7, 2020 by D.V.R

[stodge]

Evening all

A sudden change from spring warmth to winter chill on offer over the weekend but this often happens at this time of year as the winter and summer air masses clash and the end of the PV allows colder air to flood southward.

The T+240 charts this evening from ECM, GEM, GFS OP and Control taking us into mid month and beyond:

A few items of interest - after the cold blast, the HP remains overor just to the north before slipping away SE and this allows the European trough to move north and take control of the weather for southern districts so an unsettled spell with rain or showers likely later next week. 

From there, ECM, GEM and Control send the trough east and a more traditional pattern re-establishes with an Atlantic feed and the Azores HP ridging NE in response to the Atlantic LP moving in. GEM keeps the jet to the south with strong heights over Greenland but ECM and Control go for a more northerly jet pattern.

GFS OP is the outlier here because instead of sending the European trough east allowing heights to rise as the Azores HP ridges in it sends part of the trough energy west with a new area of heights developing over the Faeroes and extending to Norway. This keeps an E'ly flow over southern Britain but further into FI the joining of the Azores and Scandinavian HP cells creates a strong ridge over the British Isles with the trough held to the south - the problem with that for heat fans is the orientation of the HP doesn't allow for the hot African air to advect north.

[Mike Poole]

At this stage given earlier uncertainties, I am feeling quite positive looking at the ECM 12z mean at T240:

Less of an emphasis on Greenland and a signal for heights over Scandi, portends well, just need to see it in the operationals in a day or two.  But we can wait, not like there's anything to do in the meantime, is it?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

-4/5 dew points in May  

[Allseasons-Si]

@snowray that's the 00z ECM ens

12z ECM ens pressure/850's

well the ECM/gfs mean at day ten are in tandem,not often you see that

 

12z GEFS ens pressure/850's

now what i really like is the 8-14 day 500mb outlook from CPC which shows the hp cell NE of the UK instead of NW of which in turn should throw up some warmer air from the S/SE yes the upper winds are from a sw'ly quadrant but surface would be south of east

i have rotated the chart so you are not breaking your neck when viewing it

i cannot wait to get this chilly snap out of the way to enjoy some more glorious weather,if we are locked in for another 3 weeks then i don't mind some more fine weather to go with it

remember to keep your...

and stay safe.

 

[LRD]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

Not looking forward to this cold easterly weather early next week.. We've had a lot of that during this spring and it's s**t..

Anyway.. Very nice synoptics on the GFS later on so hopefully it's not just a fantasy - fingers crossed 

Eh? Not being confrontational or anything mate but where have you been living? April was nothing short of glorious. 

And the stats back it up. I don't even recall March being a bad month either. And the first week of May has also been pleasant

Record-breaking April sunshine

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

April 2020 has been a warm, dry and sunny month

 

[Mike Poole]

I said I'd keep this under review, CFS predictions for June:

Here's the last 8 runs average z500 anomaly:

So if you average all that you get heights over Scandi, and a hot summer for us, some of the runs suggest low pressure incursions from the south, so some storms possible too...liking the long range stuff at the moment! 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Gowon]

16 minutes ago, LRD said:

Eh? Not being confrontational or anything mate but where have you been living? April was nothing short of glorious. 

And the stats back it up. I don't even recall March being a bad month either. And the first week of May has also been pleasant

Record-breaking April sunshine

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

April 2020 has been a warm, dry and sunny month

 

In South East of England, mate. 

I'm not at all discounting the weather has been fine, but most of the time the fine weather bought winds from coming from the east or north east and they're quite dry gusty winds as well. It's cold /cool, it also blows up dust and other small particles in your eyes (which is quite annoying when you're working outside).

Maybe it's to do with me hating easterly winds at this time of the year that's made me feel like it's happened so many times?

The stats might say it was sunny, but I would like to see how many days have had winds coming from the east?

 

[Frosty.]

The 0z output, in this case the Ukmo 0h shows a short but sharp cold feeling shock to the system from the north following the very warm low / mid 20’s c but during next week, high pressure builds in over the u k again and the uppers (850’s) start to warm through and surface conditions become more pleasant again but a lot will depend on where the anticyclone becomes established and the orientation which will determine how warm / cool it will feel due to the wind direction, cloud amounts etc.

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

FWIW, the GFS 0Z operational run is still running pretty close to the mean and control...

    

So, the first half of next week, at least, still looks dire!

[SMU]

Hum > models trending cooler / colder in the midterm now.
UKMO still has 0c isotherm over the UK at day 6- Max 12-14c.

[Gowon]

(After this weekend of course) ECM starts off cold , warms up for a few days and ends cold.

Nearly the whole run has winds coming from the east or north east. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by D.V.R

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

(After this weekend of course) ECM starts off cold , warms up for a few days and ends cold.

Nearly the whole run has winds coming from the east or north east. 

ECM op run is a huge outlier, so don’t worry too much what it shows. The 850 mean recovers to an average of +5 by day 8-10.

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM op run is a huge outlier, so don’t worry too much what it shows. The 850 mean recovers to an average of +5 by day 8-10.

Yes, for now it's an outlier, but I'm not going to have sleepless nights over it.

[Britneyfan]

Well don’t think it’s going to be that awfully cold down here in london, 15 degrees forecast for Sunday, it looked a lot worse than that few days ago 

[snowray]

ECM ens for Birmingham show how much of an outlier the 00z run is after D8, big relief there.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by snowray

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Well don’t think it’s going to be that awfully cold down here in london, 15 degrees forecast for Sunday, it looked a lot worse than that few days ago 

To be fair even the most extreme output shown a few days ago would have still been in low double figures. It never looked likely. Maybe a chance of something wintry in Scotland, which is not that notable in early May.

[Eugene]

48 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

To be fair even the most extreme output shown a few days ago would have still been in low double figures. It never looked likely. Maybe a chance of something wintry in Scotland, which is not that notable in early May.

Central areas will be struggling to double figures by Monday, very cold for mid May with sunny periods. Next week looks lovely and fresh. 

[Methuselah]

Tuesday's looking okay...Given some sunshine and very little wind, it could feel quite pleasant, despite air-temps of only around 12C?

    

[Zak M]

Yes please! 

   

[Methuselah]

And do I see a nascent plume?

    

[Guest]

Hmmm that low pressure towers the end of next week really isn’t helping, gfs struggles to get temps above 15c until a week on Sunday. Could also turn wet with slow moving fronts across the south. 

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And do I see a nascent plume?

    

Just gotta love a nascent plume..oozing potential.....good job Ed..keep up the great posts!

Edited May 8, 2020 by JON SNOW

[lassie23]

Anyone got any snow depth charts

[LRD]

14 hours ago, D.V.R said:

In South East of England, mate. 

I'm not at all discounting the weather has been fine, but most of the time the fine weather bought winds from coming from the east or north east and they're quite dry gusty winds as well. It's cold /cool, it also blows up dust and other small particles in your eyes (which is quite annoying when you're working outside).

Maybe it's to do with me hating easterly winds at this time of the year that's made me feel like it's happened so many times?

The stats might say it was sunny, but I would like to see how many days have had winds coming from the east?

 

The stats say it was dry, warm and sunny from the NW of Scotland to the SE of England. Not sure what your South East of England comment was getting at at all. Plus, you're in Croydon. That's the SE isn't it?

You're still saying that it's cold/cool winds that have brought the fine weather. I'm sorry, the figures from the Met Office just don't back you up. Where is the evidence that this spring has been cool? I have no idea on the frequency of E'ly winds or not. And, it's totally irrelevant as we have had, nationwide, an unusually warm and dry and very sunny April. Whatever wind direction has brought that (nigh on impossible for a NE'ly to do that, though, I'd have thought yet you claim NE'ly winds have been a feature of the weather), those are the facts. I'm going to leave it there as it's not model stuff but, sorry, I'm totally baffled as to why you are describing spring as cool up to this point

I would say that E'ly's are certainly in the forecast for next week for the south

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by LRD