Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, there’s a lot to like if you like high pressure and lots of sunshine and once we get past the cooler blip from the north on sunday and early next week with slight overnight frosts we then see temperatures start to recover again with some warm potential further ahead, especially further south.

PS...there’s a lot to like through the second half of this week too with plenty of increasingly very warm weather and long sunny spells but you will also notice isolated heavy showers breaking out, Saturday probably the peak with some thunderstorms around heralding the drop in temperatures by sunday.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Zak M]

[mb018538]

Seems to be a lot of troughing happening over Iberia, and again in the longer term modelling. Anyone know what’s causing this to repeat so often, given that it’s not the usual set up in that area? The plus for the UK is that it supports high pressure in our locale of course!

[Allseasons-Si]

As Zak posted above the GFS is looking quiet warm from day 8> and at 258 a slither of +16 to poss +18 moving up from the south,a long way off but there could be thundery potential too,lets see how this projected plume continues in subsequent runs

here is the day ten(wont go no further) 2m temps,nice but i would suspect that it will be warmer than that

sorry for the quick post,i am taking advantage of doing some work in the garden while it's nice for the next few days

take care everyone and stay safe

later's.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Allseasons-si
Spell check

[Mike Poole]

Great run for summer weather lovers from the GEM 12z, high over the UK T180, and draws in some heat at T240:

The start of summer proper...

[Methuselah]

It's nae bad!     

[Zak M]

The GFS 12z is an absolute stonker, no one or two ways about it!

Feast your eyes on that!! 

         

[tomp456]

8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The GFS 12z is an absolute stonker, no one or two ways about it!

Feast your eyes on that!! 

         

That cape chart will turn out to be extremely accurate, all the cape and instability over France, none over here.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 12z op ain't alone in showing plenty of High Pressure, there are loads of the ens also showing a lot of High pressure dominated conditions.. Surely not a repeat of 2018 on the cards.... Shhhhhh. Whisper it carefully, and tell your enemies less and your friends even lesser. Oh and you no the drill... STAY SAFE... NO UNNECESSARY RISKS..

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

That cape chart will turn out to be extremely accurate, all the cape and instability over France, none over here.

Ha, and also based of highly unrealistic dew points of near 20c

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEFS ens are not to be sniffed at...

check these out for my local and London

and look at the difference from two days ago,a significant warm up coming (as it stands) after a cool blip so cover those tender plants

the GEFS mean at 180,240 and 300

"SPLENDID"

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational still showing a cooler shot from the north for Sunday / early next week but its a very feeble affair, a few wintry showers for the far north / northeast on sunday...really there couldn't be many showers with pressure so high but a few night frosts for sure and then high pressure builds in over the uk again with a gradual recovery in temperatures.

[Djdazzle]

Quite a turnaround from the models - many were showing a Greenland high a few days ago! For once, I’m glad!

Another rarity is that ECM and GFS are fairly similar at T192.

[Allseasons-Si]

Here comes the heat pump at 216 from the ECM...

 

[Methuselah]

That's some temperature-rise on them there 12Z ensembles!

    

[Allseasons-Si]

The real heat just glances to our east at day ten but it still will be lovely.

still,a long way off so there could be possible tweaks to warmer/hotter weather come the time.

 

[Zak M]

Good evening all, just a final summary post before I disappear.

Most people are liking the looks of the GFS 12z, especially on day 10, with a plume from C Europe, with the 12z showing temperatures peaking at 24c in the south, although it will be much warmer than that if it verifies. It's showing 15c+ 850hpa uppers too in the south.

      

Not too sure if it will verify but if it does then we will see our first proper heat of the season. Along with the heat and humidity also increases the risk of thunderstorms.

GEFS Ensembles:

   

And finally, the ECM 12z does show something plume-like from day 8 onwards, mainly across C Europe but this could also clip the far SE of England and high temperatures could be possible too.

         

An interesting 10 days could be coming up.

For now, enjoy the rest of this week, as there is plenty of sunshine and warmth on offer!  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

-10 850hpa covering good part of Scotland is a good bet now  and run going out a bit further now with -6 850s reaching south coast  anyone know when last time something similar happened in May?

[Don]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

The 12z op ain't alone in showing plenty of High Pressure, there are loads of the ens also showing a lot of High pressure dominated conditions.. Surely not a repeat of 2018 on the cards.... Shhhhhh.

Surely not a 2018 repeat?! . Nowt would surprise me these days

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Surely not a 2018 repeat?! . Nowt would surprise me these days

Hmmm, that’d be great. Seems like the benchmark is so much higher now for extremes. Remember the days when getting to 30C was a “wow” moment. Nowadays it’s a shock if several days don’t exceed 32C in the SE in a given year.

Liking the models tonight.

[Mike Poole]

Talk again of 2018 tonight.  I think it is a good comparison for this year, and I expect that from now (after the cold snap early next week) until well into July, our weather pattern may well match 2018 to some extent.  My thoughts are that the far north will not experience what happened in the early summer period, though, conversely the south may see earlier heat than in 2018.  

I'm keeping an eye on SSTs relative to 2018, today's comparison:

Both have the cold pool out west, but differences to our immediate SW.  To me it looks like a similar but slightly weaker driver than in 2018.  

Models at T240:

Actually looks pretty consistent to me, with ECM getting +14 uppers in as well, and that heat pump looks familiar from 2018 too.  

CFS shows no real fall in AAM from any developing La Niña in the medium term:

So, I think there is reasonable confidence, taking into account long range forecasts from the MO and CFS which I have posted about previously, in a hot spell from about mid month, possibly having some longevity.  Thunderstorm potential less predictable, but certainly a possibility....we will see...

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

Lots of talk about 2018, scares me slightly given there’s so much time for it to go wrong but in 2018 the blocking pattern didn’t really let up from Easter until the first week of August, through May and June it favoured different parts of the country but there are similarities appearing. I could foresee a slightly more angled jet maybe encouraging brief unsettled spells through the summer, but also conversely encouraging more cutoff activity and maybe a little more plumage! Overall a hot thundery summer for the south but without drought, always more unsettled further north. What’s weird I always try and stay away from those Crystal ball type posts. 
 

Still the first 80f of the year on Friday or Saturday and models hinting at some reasonable CAPE off not silly dew points some maybe some bonus TS activity to cool some of the sunburn in a few locations. 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Guest

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

The real heat just glances to our east at day ten but it still will be lovely.

still,a long way off so there could be possible tweaks to warmer/hotter weather come the time.

 

This has been a theme of recent weeks, cold weather has been corrected eastwards as the time nears, such as we are seeing now for Sunday and Monday, cold uppers sweeping down through N Sea, in the winter it was mid atlantic instead!, and warmest uppers just missing us escaping east.

Models are very similar this evening, high pressure once again nosing in through next week gradually warming up, with potential for something more substantively warmer from the south, with low pressure once again developing to our SW. This has been a long recurrent pattern of recent weeks, not sure what is causing it. Looking at 2 months of predominantly fine settled weather since mid March, I've commented many a time on how very wet periods as occurred last summer through until March have in recent decades been followed by dry or very dry conditions - complete flip situations.

Would welcome those more in the know what has caused this sudden sustained flip? Where is the atlantic? Has it caught the virus? Its been in lockdown since lockdown.. uncanny timing?? more than coincidence??

Edited May 6, 2020 by damianslaw

[Mike Poole]

Don't you just love the pub run?  Even more, now they are all closed.  T240:

Edited May 6, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

The GFS does an ECM and also shifts the heat east at day ten,can we have a bit of westward correction in future please