Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the mean is further East with that cold plunge, perhaps High Pressure closer in on the mean!! 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Looks like the 12z is a significant outlier.

Its not an outlier at all, in fact its one of last ensembles to usher in the cold through the weekend. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is NOT a cold outlier.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is NOT a cold outlier.

I think the entire model is an outlier mate...

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

I think the entire model is an outlier mate...

I wished it was

[Djdazzle]

Sorry think I was looking at the 6z ensembles.

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Nothing watered down at all. Whatever you want to label it the GFS is a massive change to cold.

The ICON / GFS have all moved today to the ECM position of yesterday with a blocking high the western side of Greenland.

No blizzards predicted but certainly the chance of some low level snow Sunday evening.

Note the windchill Sunday night as well. -11c for the highlands but sub -5c widely on May 11th.

 

Also look at the westward correction from yesterday

Still time for corrections east > Note the UKMO @144 is about 150 miles East which is enough to make it less impactful but still chilly...

As I said, sod's law... Laughing not laughing. Crying not crying...

[carinthian]

Going by the very low 850mb temps into Scotland by Sunday, I would imagine the depth of cold is heading towards exceptional for the time of year up there.

C

[Djdazzle]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Nothing watered down at all. Whatever you want to label it the GFS is a massive change to cold.

The ICON / GFS have all moved today to the ECM position of yesterday with a blocking high the western side of Greenland.

No blizzards predicted but certainly the chance of some low level snow Sunday evening.

Note the windchill Sunday night as well. -11c for the highlands but sub -5c widely on May 11th.

Also look at the westward correction from yesterday

Still time for corrections east > Note the UKMO @144 is about 150 miles East which is enough to make it less impactful but still chilly...

Agreed that it’s a cold run but as it’s so different to the 6z, still a lot of uncertainty. ECM will be interesting.

[SLEETY]

Why is the o6z gfs run  nearly always wants to push cold spells away quickly,seen it do that many times before.The 12z run is so different it’s an utter joke compared to the 06run.

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Going by the very low 850mb temps into Scotland by Sunday, I would imagine the depth of cold is heading towards exceptional for the time of year up there.

C

Cold alright, down to -11c hpa for the Highlands with lots of snow graphics there too. Not an outlier that's for sure, this is what Januaries should look like not mid may!

Lets see what the ECM has to say, somewhere in between UKMO and GFS I'm betting on.

[Zak M]

ECM still agrees

Could we get -12c uppers in May?

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zak M

[snowray]

ECM running with UKMO.

COLD!!

[Djdazzle]

At 168, ECM slams the door. Chilly, but nothing exceptional.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

At 168, ECM slams the door. Chilly, but nothing exceptional.

Yeah, was about the say the same. Thankfully the cold is soon shut off, so we may have 2 or 3 cold days tops before temperatures recover. Good. Nobody (apart from maybe 0.1%) of the population wants single figure maximums in May.

[Zak M]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

At 168, ECM slams the door. Chilly, but nothing exceptional.

Good. That weather is certainly not normal in May!

Hopefully it does lead to Spanish plumes...

[LRD]

ECM for a week from now:

Looks like it's toppling to me. A short, sharp cold spell followed by a settling down. Gardeners beware though - some cold nights likely should it verify

[Zak M]

Now that's better from the ECM!!

Temperatures look to be still a bit below average but not in single figures!

   

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zak M

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 12z is shunting that much colder air Eastwards.. High Pressure looks to be building nicely from the West to... 

The crowd are on the pitch..... 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Mattwolves

[snowray]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

ECM for a week from now:

Looks like it's toppling to me. A short, sharp cold spell followed by a settling down. Gardeners beware though - some cold nights likely should it verify

Hopefully it won't amount to much, late frosts are my main worry now, wanted to plant out some veg this week but think I'll wait a little longer for the all clear.

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Good. That weather is certainly not normal in May!

Hopefully it does lead to Spanish plumes...

Well Zak, the extreme cold and snow that swept southward, at the very end of May 1975 was defo followed a plume. A lot of plumes in fact...

Edited May 4, 2020 by General Cluster

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Hopefully it won't amount to much, late frosts are my main worry now, wanted to plant out some veg this week but think I'll wait a little longer for the all clear.

Don't worry, I planted out all my seedlings last Friday, I'll let you know how bad it gets... 

Praying to push everything further east! 

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well Matt, the extreme cold and snow that swept southward, at the very end of May 1975 was defo followed a plume. A lot of plumes in fact...

I certainly don't remember changing my name...

...unless you quoted me by accident 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zak M

[viking_smb]

6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well Matt, the extreme cold and snow that swept southward, at the very end of May 1975 was defo followed a plume. A lot of plumes in fact...

you're obsessed by plumes lol 

[NorthernRab]

48 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yeah, was about the say the same. Thankfully the cold is soon shut off, so we may have 2 or 3 cold days tops before temperatures recover. Good. Nobody (apart from maybe 0.1%) of the population wants single figure maximums in May.

Don't think I'm alone in the north in saying that I have absolutely zero interest in seeing anything white falling from the sky or anything like -7 temperatures at this time of the year. 

The garden with all the fruit/vegetable plants and flowers is doing really well after such a beautiful April. 

Hopefully the 12hz is just going off on one and reverts to the 6hz (pictured below) to conform with the ECM and we see the high collapse over the UK to bring a recovery in temperatures and more warm sunshine. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by NorthernRab