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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Och well...the GFS has come into line!

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With a slow but sustained recovery to follow. According to the 00Z ensembles::oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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It looks as if both ECM and GFS develop the same plume next weekend, although the former brings in that horrible northerly and helps keeps the plume squished down in France. 

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It always amazes me how one model eases back on a scenario, only for another to jump on board.

To be fair, it doesn't look like being anything exceptional. Cool and possibly feeling cold, but nothing too out of the ordinary for May.

We shall see, as always!

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Posted (edited)

The ECM 0z ensemble mean indicates a big drop in temperatures at the end of this week / early next week from the north, turning much colder for a time (especially further N / E) but before that it becomes very warm across the south later this week with low / mid 20’s c for a few days as much of this week looks settled and increasingly warm under high pressure with the exception of the SW tonight / tomorrow which becomes wet and windy with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. Also looking towards mid May the mean shows green shoots of recovery as the Azores high starts to ridge in.?☀️

EE0BCE2F-67EA-4D4F-9644-7292BCE8735E.thumb.gif.2f63a7ba7427d7e86246051362277245.gif0B1258B5-3CEF-4354-A0B5-5ABDA59820FB.thumb.gif.79516c6d948df1348a395564059dcf68.gif254FC689-8B12-413D-9832-40EDD3AA71CE.thumb.gif.fba791c272a9fa50b105d1cba5ac9d52.gif93EE0087-FC25-47F5-96E8-8B70302612F2.thumb.gif.766c6caace0e4e037bf5ad00f9584f7e.gif9B26595A-D12A-44CD-BBCB-2B25EDB0E9DF.thumb.gif.4c8bfe03541c79834c03d9c80f815227.gif2DE591C7-97F8-46FC-B91F-D34DAB42A856.thumb.gif.7c592efae0f4504662cc6681194219ad.gif970A863A-7D20-41AC-9F13-E60B32FFBB6F.thumb.gif.60e853f033aea209a000100112c34b5a.gifDB5E4D48-8F9C-42C3-B285-BC653B9F686A.thumb.gif.0a527d194c99fca51da3c6b64b80317f.gifA770BBE2-156B-4FF3-8173-EE1A57CFA352.thumb.gif.cc268d4800eb019b22e69e0a5ff3ef82.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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I think to be honest I can't complain about most models showing a cold plunge from next Sunday onwards. We have had a stunning first half of spring. Kept me going thru this awful disease. I'm gonna enjoy the sunshine this week knowing the fact it's not even summer yet. If it gets cold next week so be it. Il protect my small plants especially the cucumber. They hate cold. Last of all keep safe and thanks everyone on here for the input. I'm learning more and more everyday. God bless also the NHS stunning jobs your doing. 

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Gfs trying its best to flatten the Northerly as quickly as possible,with the coldest of air soon cut off,but it’s way off yet,be interesting to see which model was closest to the final outcome as we approach the weekend.

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs trying its best to flatten the Northerly as quickly as possible,with the coldest of air soon cut off,but it’s way off yet,be interesting to see which model was closest to the final outcome as we approach the weekend.

Yes, it's a rather brief affair according to the GFS 6z. And as you say, it's a long way off yet.

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Posted (edited)

Good afternoon all, it will start to become warmer later this week with a high of 25c possible in the south on Friday. However, the GFS 06z shows some big changes will be afoot this weekend with a cold plunge from the north. The 06z shows that it could be an over 10c drop in temperatures in some areas on Saturday to Sunday!! Still unsure about whether there could be snow (there probably won't be any) but if there is any then it will most likely be in the north and confined only to higher ground... so big changes on the way. So there is a chance that some snow lovers in the north get some snow (not often do I say that!) and it might be worthy especially after the mediocre winter we have just had... the cold snap only has to verify first for all of that to happen. Stay safe all.

h500slp.thumb.png.89775b4cbf532ff34229d22547b5a0c6.png   659007942_h500slp(1).thumb.png.8ecd4dcb17817037c540c28fcc13f681.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.f134e2a5b87a23081cf5435e2349f315.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.d9a06e5cc08bda1ca1ab29016bcfb1d2.png   587126472_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.06fd5fa9acaeb4ef68ce800716e82694.png   prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.2e510838e8ecf5274d2ce60263995dbc.png   1710346357_h500slp(2).thumb.png.0cb536d911b9f7da7f709fbbcdda98f7.png   giphy.thumb.gif.fead0c95a62a10c0708309c5c055cf0a.gif

Edited by Zak M
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7 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 0z showing a much watered-down northerly compared to its previous two runs.

Thank goodness for that, was terrified of blizzards! 

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35 minutes ago, ribster said:

Thank goodness for that, was terrified of blizzards! 

I can see how you might have got that impression from some of the posts the last couple of days!

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1 hour ago, ribster said:

Thank goodness for that, was terrified of blizzards! 

I'm still worried, sod's law dictates the opposite to whatever is desired, regardless of the season. Grateful that the suggestion is that it will be fleeting, but I'm hoping for very watered-down! 

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Noticed a ramp on the Beeb this morning and lunchtime as well. Probably all get shifted east by the time it gets into the reliable time frame as have all the others done this spring. At the moment is in FI so can't be taken all that seriously.

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Well it looks like winter MAY be back for one more bite :shok:

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Posted (edited)

GFS 12Z Ops is an extreme run that takes places from near 25c (could even see 26/27C in the south east on Friday) to maxes of less than 10C just 48hrs later. The northerly plunge is especially potent and then hangs around likely a nasty cold for about a week. Meanwhile SE Europe enters what would likely be a record break May heatwave with 850's approaching 30 and surface temps over 40C.

Looking at the whole 12Z run I'm not sure you can get worse output in May beyond this weekend, really is payback weather for a decent April.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted (edited)

Patience folks the 12z is probaby having a Donald Trump moment, it's about as useful as his press conferences... But look no further... It builds High Pressure in and warms us up towards the end... Arrrrrrrr... ?

gfs-0-354.png

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gfs-1-378.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Looks like the 12z is a significant outlier.

And how do you know that!!!

the gefs ens are not out yet

looking at the gefs mean at 162,that is pretty chilly.

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