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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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7 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Must not RAMP..oh what the hell, Really impressive virtual cold plunge from the Arctic for the time of year again from the ECM..it really is a dog with a bone regarding this idea..!??

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will it happen?..that’s above my pay grade!?❄️

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Countryfile weather seem to think so.One way and another it's been a strange five months 

C.S

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Mid-night last night our forecast 850mb temp was 2c. The village height is 1650m asl. Snow settled for a short time. Min air temp was 1c. At the same time -2c air temp was being recorded at 2200m on surrounding peaks. I think convective showers at this time of year can produce snow down to fairly low levels and not necessary of  Arctic origin. Looking at the longer term charts at day 10 , all gets a bit messy over Euroland. Austria could easily get into a warm sector as the UK  goes into May chill.  All interesting weather watching.

C

Interesting !

ECM gets the polar front past you - with -5c locally indicating you could see some snow!

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The pointless plunge is back, ecm has temps probably close to 25c here on the south coast on Saturday, maybe a max of just 7-9c on Sunday. A staggering drop really as those 850s drop from +9 to -6c in just 24hrs. GFS 12z ops less aggressive however a number of the ensembles also have this brutal mid-summer to mid-winter drop. 

Given how these things usually play out at this range you’d fancy a slightly modified version of it as it really is pretty extreme.  

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1 hour ago, shaky said:

Where is that band of rain gfs kept forecasting for today across a large swathe of wales midlands and east anglia!!its virtually non existent!!thats gfs being incorrect at just 24 hours!!shocking if you ask me!!yeh it might have been a light band of rain but still it was forecasted and gfs got it wrong!!

It's developing now in the east midlands.

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting !

ECM gets the polar front past you - with -5c locally indicating you could see some snow!

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Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

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1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

And Hamburg and Berlin in Italy?

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5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

I believe he just took a screenshot before it all loaded! WXcharts can often be a little slow to change its scales when going inbetween diffrerent map sizes.

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Yes I think it was out of sync lol -

Scottish Ski resorts missing out on some great snow conditions this year!

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Could be some very severe weather in Central Europe with the 20c 850pha isotherm running through Spain, southern Italy and Greece and the 0c isotherm just a few hundred miles north! 

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21 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

I just love the fact Birmingham is in Northern Spain, I better get the Sangria out then!!!

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM still going for it . 

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Excellent cross polar profile flow, those who like cold and snow in the winter dream of such charts, alas in May perhaps not what many may wish to see, but statistically far more likely to see such synoptics now than in winter sadly - due to the seasonal demise of the PV.

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Like others have said, the ECM goes for a cold blast, and it looks like the mean agrees with it tonight.. I would love this set up during the winter months and it's so bloody frustrating to see it crop up in May, when it's to far gone to be nothing but a nuisance.. Maybe just maybe these charts will come off... Come the end of the year.. Still 4 weeks from the start of summer, so I'm pretty sure we will be seeing our fair share of summery weather. Onwards and upwards... 

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10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Like others have said, the ECM goes for a cold blast, and it looks like the mean agrees with it tonight.. I would love this set up during the winter months and it's so bloody frustrating to see it crop up in May, when it's to far gone to be nothing but a nuisance.. Maybe just maybe these charts will come off... Come the end of the year.. Still 4 weeks from the start of summer, so I'm pretty sure we will be seeing our fair share of summery weather. Onwards and upwards... 

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If this comes off it is going to be really depressing for most people in lockdown- really hoping it gets watered down.

 

Also hopefully won't be too much damage to plants etc as everything is well ahead of normal in terms of growth after that exceptional April.

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Matt is spot on about the ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, it’s much more in line with the operational than the 0z was so more of a direct hit from the Arctic although as coldies know, counting down to a cold plunge could and usually does go pear shaped and could easily happen again if everything gets shunted further east..there’s actually some fine pleasant weather to enjoy under high pressure before that potential wintry sting and by day 10 there are some green shoots of recovery going forward from mid month!?

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The risk of a northerly is quite likely due to the very strong Arctic and Greenland heights that is being forecast. 

If such a set up does occur, hopefully it won't be a half hearted effort where the main thrust of instability head down the North Sea, at least make It worthwhile and have a chance of fairly rare May snowfall. 

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4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The risk of a northerly is quite likely due to the very strong Arctic and Greenland heights that is being forecast. 

If such a set up does occur, hopefully it won't be a half hearted effort where the main thrust of instability head down the North Sea, at least make It worthwhile and have a chance of fairly rare May snowfall. 

I think at the very least it looks like we're at risk of a damaging frost or two.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

If this comes off it is going to be really depressing for most people in lockdown- really hoping it gets watered down.

 

Also hopefully won't be too much damage to plants etc as everything is well ahead of normal in terms of growth after that exceptional April.

Thankfully with the clear skies of April we had a frost on a lot of nights so growth is well behind here and the first housemartins only arrived two days ago about ten days later than usual.We even had a flock of geese still here last week.

Edited by Northernlights
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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh my, eyes almost popped out of their sockets when I saw the ECM day 7 chart. That would bring the real risk of low level May snow.

Convective thundersnow?

on a more model note...

the eps/gefs mean at day ten

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like others have said the eps goes for the northerly with quiet cool temps but the gefs are having none of it so who will be right,last week the models was showing a warm/hot plume for this week coming with a thundery breakdown but that seems to be watered down now but there is still some pleasant weather to be had though.

 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

No one is ramping it up. Just commenting on how unusual it is.

I think we know what month it is now...

With all due respect Steve, im sure im not alone in not knowing what day it is,let alone what month! At least the weather is giving us else something to occupy our minds 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think at the very least it looks like we're at risk of a damaging frost or two.

Not too much of a gardener but I never understand why people worry about frost(don't think there be any severe frosts for the majority due to cloud cover and wind) at this time of year when ground temperatures are higher now and the lag affect means any frost which does form on soils surely  won't last that long? 

In anycase any northerly blast may not be all that strong but colder air from the North does look likely. 

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40 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Convective thundersnow?

on a more model note...

the eps/gefs mean at day ten

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like others have said the eps goes for the northerly with quiet cool temps but the gefs are having none of it so who will be right,last week the models was showing a warm/hot plume for this week coming with a thundery breakdown but that seems to be watered down now but there is still some pleasant weather to be had though.

 

I wouldn’t call 3 days in a row of 21-23/24c bad at all. Low twenties is miles above average for early May.

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Wouldn’t it be so typical of seeing a cold spell in May that gives us uppers lower than what we’ve seen all winter! :pardon:

It can happen and certainly did back in May 05 or 06, can’t be sure what year it was. But travelling back down from Scotland and along the A66, the wind switched quickly from a W early morning to a moderate N’erly, and that gave a good covering especially up on the Pennines, and even at some lower levels in N Yorkshire. You wouldn’t have believed it was May that’s for sure. It’s a funny old month at times. 

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