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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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GFS 12z shifts towards the Euros with a correction west of the cold upper air about 500 miles

UKMO looks like a Bhol weekend of 2 halves !

Fri / Sat ( SE especially ) could be nice

A73A1512-D1BE-466F-899E-77AEDA0D906E.thumb.jpeg.dc8a15b9379be099502dc75c306bc1cc.jpeg

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

INCOMING from the North on UKMO winter finally arriving in May ?

 

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Looks freezing, low 20s in the south.

Edited by Scorcher
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 12z shifts towards the Euros with a correction west of the cold upper air about 500 miles

UKMO looks like a Bhol weekend of 2 halves !

Fri / Sat ( SE especially ) could be nice

A73A1512-D1BE-466F-899E-77AEDA0D906E.thumb.jpeg.dc8a15b9379be099502dc75c306bc1cc.jpeg

Talk over here of a dramatic drop in temperature over Northern Britain by next Sunday. However, not sure how far south the Arctic front travels. We in the Eastern Alps have been put on snow warning alert at day 10 ( but presently on a fairly low percentage)  The Icon model has performed well over the past few weeks in the medium range 120-180 t and seems to be the model to follow at the moment. Much of Western Europe in a no mans zone with the Azores upper low persistent  in tandem with the White Sea low pressure system and  blocking in force over the North Atlantic.

C

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12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Talk over here of a dramatic drop in temperature over Northern Britain by next Sunday. However, not sure how far south the Arctic front travels. We in the Eastern Alps have been put on snow warning alert at day 10 ( but presently on a fairly low percentage)  The Icon model has performed well over the past few weeks in the medium range 120-180 t and seems to be the model to follow at the moment. Much of Western Europe in a no mans zone with the Azores upper low persistent  in tandem with the White Sea low pressure system and  blocking in force over the North Atlantic.

C

If you did get some cold air > At this tike of year + your altitude whats the 850s need to be for snow ? -2c ?

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean moves again to the UKMO / ECM

3DA5FB11-4596-4B5B-8B88-BAD330825463.thumb.jpeg.64720d8aa332519e6c364f58c5e9ec4b.jpegC7F35FD9-A1C1-470E-A575-01FAF8C18E80.thumb.jpeg.cc939268e7e2865e7c9c8eede682aca7.jpeg

Looks great. Can’t wait for some 9-10c days! Just what people want in May...?

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Posted (edited)

Interesting observations. The models somehow find a way to keep directing that impending cold air over to us, despite now collapsing the high that was supposed to migrate up to Greenland. 

It is May after all. One month that always seems to get us caught short into thinking it’s summer, only to then deliver a low blow and sometimes even threaten snow! 

Hoping by post mid month, we can feast our eyes onto some plume activity. Something similar to late May 2017 or 18 would do just nice! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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13 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Interesting observations. The models somehow find a way to keep directing that impending cold air over to us, despite now collapsing the high that was supposed to migrate up to Greenland. 

It is May after all. One month that always seems to get us caught short into thinking it’s summer, only to then deliver a low blow and sometimes even threaten snow! 

Hoping by post mid month, we can feast our eyes onto some plume activity. Something similar to late May 2017 or 18 would do just nice! 

It isn’t looking great for mid month onwards at the moment sadly. Global circulations and teleconnections look poor for settled and warm weather for the UK. Met office update also reflects this and goes for unsettled weather to dominate, which is what you’d expect. Let’s see how things pan out though. They’ve been wrong before!

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Where is that band of rain gfs kept forecasting for today across a large swathe of wales midlands and east anglia!!its virtually non existent!!thats gfs being incorrect at just 24 hours!!shocking if you ask me!!yeh it might have been a light band of rain but still it was forecasted and gfs got it wrong!!

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Must say the GEFS 12z mean looks preety good for high pressure / strong ridging so a predominantly settled outlook across most of the u k would seem the logical conclusion based on this run!?☀️

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It isn’t looking great for mid month onwards at the moment sadly. Global circulations and teleconnections look poor for settled and warm weather for the UK. Met office update also reflects this and goes for unsettled weather to dominate, which is what you’d expect. Let’s see how things pan out though. They’ve been wrong before!

Most definitely... There forecasts have been well off the pace for the last few days here, so I'm certainly not gonna hold my breath on there several week forecast being much better.. Perhaps its a lack of data.. Who knows.. But at present it looks to me like anything beyond 5 days may as well be binned. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It isn’t looking great for mid month onwards at the moment sadly. Global circulations and teleconnections look poor for settled and warm weather for the UK. Met office update also reflects this and goes for unsettled weather to dominate, which is what you’d expect. Let’s see how things pan out though. They’ve been wrong before!

You're right, it doesn't look great from next Sunday/Monday onwards and the teleconnections I believe, aren't promising (still beyond my skill set I'm afraid but I have read the views of others). However, I have seen a fair few horrible, cold, dull and wet looking charts beyond the reliable (and even in the semi-reliable) this spring and, apart from the wash-out Tuesday just gone, I've seen hardly any poor weather here in tropical Bedfordshire for about 6 or 7 weeks

That's not to say it won't turn this time round but the cold charts have substantially downgraded nearer the time this spring (as well as winter and autumn!!)

Edited by LRD
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Teleconnections - winter 18/19. All that needs to be said in terms of their ability to be wide of the mark.

Cannot believe some are ramping up cold charts. Hopefully, they will soon remember it’s May. ?

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

If you did get some cold air > At this tike of year + your altitude whats the 850s need to be for snow ? -2c ?

Mid-night last night our forecast 850mb temp was 2c. The village height is 1650m asl. Snow settled for a short time. Min air temp was 1c. At the same time -2c air temp was being recorded at 2200m on surrounding peaks. I think convective showers at this time of year can produce snow down to fairly low levels and not necessary of  Arctic origin. Looking at the longer term charts at day 10 , all gets a bit messy over Euroland. Austria could easily get into a warm sector as the UK  goes into May chill.  All interesting weather watching.

C

Edited by carinthian
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According to the 12Z ensembles, temps stay well-up for around seven days before taking a tumble; the extent of which remains uncertain...?

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted (edited)

Are you kidding me we couldn’t manage this in blooming winter, should be some big showers ,hail and dare I say it for high ground...... no I don’t 

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Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted (edited)

Check this out for a temperature drop! From 25C* in the south on Saturday to perhaps less than 10C* on Sunday?

ECM0-144.GIF?03-0  ECM0-168.GIF?03-0

(edit - for the weather forecasting police ... * means "maybe")

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted (edited)

Quite a drop in temperature being shown by ECM. Quite a long way off though, and it will more than likely be moderated. GFS showing a different scenario too.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Really sensational vertical ridge never thought 12z would outdo 00z but it has! 

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Posted (edited)

Must not RAMP..oh what the hell, Really impressive virtual cold plunge from the Arctic for the time of year again from the ECM..it really is a dog with a bone regarding this idea..!??

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will it happen?..that’s above my pay grade!?❄️

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Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted (edited)

Evening all, the GFS is still swinging wildly as most other models are so it's still uncertain about what will happen longer term. If you saw my post in this thread earlier the GFS 06z was showing a plume just scraping us. The GFS 12z still shows us drawing in some warmer weather the week after next week but it has the plume directly hitting E Europe, and as always it is uncertain what will happen as it is not in a reliable time frame. In the short term though, it will definitely start to warm up a bit next week, with the low twenties likely in the south, and the high teens likely elsewhere. It could turn unsettled after the warm spell next weekend with rain or showers possible on Friday. And, before you, ask... my barbecue will be out next week! Hope everyone on here had a good weekend, stay safe ☀️❤️

h500slp.thumb.png.240adecf4c878fd6e71eeb166b524204.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.25dd141bf73c86e1f9c3b8cddf1cdf4d.png   68484322_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.383859e6522b8276f008fba3117880a3.png   2117619881_h500slp(1).thumb.png.672a583234f1e86f829dc732dc129e94.png   ukprec.thumb.png.e5df0455a8f490d5225a3d8d280e9f2a.png

Edited by Zak M
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1 hour ago, shaky said:

Where is that band of rain gfs kept forecasting for today across a large swathe of wales midlands and east anglia!!its virtually non existent!!thats gfs being incorrect at just 24 hours!!shocking if you ask me!!yeh it might have been a light band of rain but still it was forecasted and gfs got it wrong!!

It’s been stuck further South all day! Persistent drizzle, sometimes rain in Wiltshire except for a few hours around the middle of the day.

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