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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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32 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If it was winter, yes! Only a sadist would want that to come off in May! ?

Will we need snow depth charts in May?

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will order a number 12 please .

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That would be lovely!

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Anyone clocked the rain band across France... It literally spreads right across the country... I wonder if our very own Mr Sussex is feeling a little under the weather today.. ?

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The GEFS 6z mean is preety good with pressure reasonably high in the vicinity of the u k throughout but especially next week of course..so, the extended outlook may not be too cool or indeed unsettled!?

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Although it does not look terribly warm (and potentially cloudy near the coast) the GFS keeps the breakdown away throughout the day 10 period.

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The Euro however has us done by Saturday (day 7).

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Certainly nae bad at all, that run; and, if things post-Day 10 pan-out anything like it, we could be in for oodles more sunshine (East Coast caveats notwithstanding!)?:oldgood:

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That being said, El Scorchio it is not!:oldlaugh:

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Just looking through the GEFS 12z members a few caught my eye, P6 looks great for high pressure to stick around longer term and P9 shows a plume..shameless cherry picking there!..?

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whatever happens longer term, at least next week shows high pressure taking control..enjoy.?☀️

PS..Better ECM tonight, the 12z shows high pressure fighting hard and winning longer term!

 

Will certainly hope the last two charts verify (even though they probably won't), especially after the plume that we were supposed to have this week!

Edited by Zak M
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ECM is swinging wildly from run to run, as are most of the models to be honest. Very tough to say what will happen into next weekend and beyond.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is swinging wildly from run to run, as are most of the models to be honest. Very tough to say what will happen into next weekend and beyond.

It will be of interest to see how the models do this summer.  The operational models are generally poorer in summer than in winter anyway, but now there's no aircraft data coming in, they might be noticeable poorer this summer.

It seems like the worst of a perpetual Christmas Day, but without presents, family getting together etc. No flight data, empty motorways, no shops open, no pubs open, and no snow!  And it goes on and on and on.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Great to see that the chances of the northerly seem to be diminishing with every run- the ECM makes it a very brief affair this evening and the GFS is now casting doubt on the whole thing.

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5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Great to see that the chances of the northerly seem to be diminishing with every run- the ECM makes it a very brief affair this evening and the GFS is now casting doubt on the whole thing.

Nothing changes really does it when it comes to northerlies?! ?

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12 minutes ago, Don said:

Nothing changes really does it when it comes to northerlies?! ?

I know this disappoints most during the winter, but I think most of us agree this is a good thing in spring and summer!

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11 hours ago, Faronstream said:

You know people are desperate for warmth when 15-17c is considered good, it's below average t-max temperature in may for UK

Is it!!!

WWW.CURRENTRESULTS.COM

Average May temperatures for places throughout the United Kingdom, including lists of monthly high and low temperatures in degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit.

i wouldn't be surprised that this week could hit 20c+ in the south esp Thursday.

 

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20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I know this disappoints most during the winter, but I think most of us agree this is a good thing in spring and summer!

Yes, it's rather pointless having northerlies at this time of year as it's too late to deliver snow events for most, unlike early spring!

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Don said:

Nothing changes really does it when it comes to northerlies?! ?

But is this not part of the 'game'? Spot a northerly, or better still an easterly, way out in the unreliable, and when it, predictable fails to verify, everyone can have a collective whinge about the unfairness of it all .Recent research has shown a connection between this behavior and Winter Syndrome for which, alas, there is no known cure

Edited by knocker
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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 0z mean is preety good, pressure stays relatively high throughout in the vicinity of the u k, in the longer term there is no surge of unseasonably cool unsettled weather from the NE like it’s been showing for the last few days (the op has pushed it way back into the murky depths of FI), on the face of it the mean is benign with quite a slack pressure field...the week ahead looks particularly fine under the influence of high pressure which will be a HUGE improvement on recent days!?

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted (edited)

There really is massive inconsistency beyond about 5 days currently especially from ECM, it’s almost lucky dip currently. I wonder if lack of live data being feed into the models from aircraft etc is causing a few issues? In the short term looks like the mega cold day has dropped on Tuesday at least, beyond that low twenties in the south through to Saturday! Beyond that a cooling trend looks likely but who knows. 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted (edited)

Looking at the overnight OP runs the GFS is the odd one out comparing it to ECM, UKMO and also GEM. 

Potenially some very unseasonably cold weather for May from the north towards next weekend, with high pressure over the N Atlantic and Greenland. 
 

These charts wouldn’t look out of place in winter! There’s still some very cold air to our north, if this happens then expect some damaging frosts and very low daytime maximums and possibly some May snow! 
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UKMO, ECM & GEM @ 144hrs 

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Enjoy the sun and warmth this week, I’ll get the garden finished. 
 

 


 

 

Edited by DisruptiveGust
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