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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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37 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Just looked and opp not on its own really. More than half follow it with the northerly flow. Opp run in black. Can you believe it snow risk icon by the 9th of May. Cant make it up. 

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Oh dear

i suspected this would happen and some of the ens inc the op and control have been showing this for the last few runs

BBQ it is then.

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Posted (edited)

Good morning, peeps...But the GFS 00Z isn't all that summery, temperature-wise, it has to be said, though there should be quite a lot of sunshine; and the scrag-end 'offers' some, very limited, suggestion of an eventual break in the easterlies...?:unsure2:

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T+240:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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T+384:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, worse still, the operational run is on the warm side of the ensembles!:shok:

           t850Berkshire.png    t2mBerkshire.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted (edited)

DzDaOiZ.png

Has to be said looks like the 00z op was definitely on the milder side 850s wise longer term.  Most ensemble members and mean taking a sharp drop.

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

If only it was winter . Some stonking charts this morning if it’s wasn’t May that is . 

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Yes end of ecm would be amazing for  winter,one day it might happen again....

Spring skiing in the Highlands in May  if ECM  is correct.,can have the occasional bitter May up there with plenty of snow.

Edited by SLEETY
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Yes, staggering blocking high from the ECM 00z. Meanwhile GFS dropped the baton on that for its 00z effort but we'll see if the 06z follows suit.

The Arctic high development looks largely stratosphere-driven, as a response to the final warming of the polar vortex. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the tropical forcing, which will be Nino-like for the next week or so (aids -AO and -NAO in May, similar to winter), then looks to transition to neutral or Nina-like (strongly encourages a +NAO in May). 

Broadly, I can see grounds for a notably cool period within the middle-third of the month, followed by a markedly warmer final third but with this being via westerlies (driest in SE).

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That sure is a decent ECM 0z ensemble mean once we’re through the next few days with a more settled look to our weather next week..fingers crossed!?☀️

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On 30/04/2020 at 00:24, Mark wheeler said:

Are we looking at mid 20s in this set up ? , still learning but want clarification. Thanks 

Hi Mark, just seen this sorry. The surface wind looks to be generally from the east and drawing in air that's at fairly typical temps for the time of year. Generally mid-teens to low 20s depending on how much sunshine there is, but may only be low teens on eastern coasts.

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18 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Yes, staggering blocking high from the ECM 00z. Meanwhile GFS dropped the baton on that for its 00z effort but we'll see if the 06z follows suit.

The Arctic high development looks largely stratosphere-driven, as a response to the final warming of the polar vortex. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the tropical forcing, which will be Nino-like for the next week or so (aids -AO and -NAO in May, similar to winter), then looks to transition to neutral or Nina-like (strongly encourages a +NAO in May). 

Broadly, I can see grounds for a notably cool period within the middle-third of the month, followed by a markedly warmer final third but with this being via westerlies (driest in SE).

Looks right to me. Certainly not going to be a repeat of April’s weather. Mid month looking a bit dodgy in terms of temperatures, but hopefully not a washout. It’s these kind of set ups that can mean low pressure can get stuck over The UK and rain for ages. Too far off for that kind of detail.

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Posted (edited)

I’d rather suffer a dodgy May and get it out of the way before summer starts.

The charts do look quite extreme, so I would expect the usual moderation.

Edited by Djdazzle
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30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks right to me. Certainly not going to be a repeat of April’s weather. Mid month looking a bit dodgy in terms of temperatures, but hopefully not a washout. It’s these kind of set ups that can mean low pressure can get stuck over The UK and rain for ages. Too far off for that kind of detail.

But then the end of March and 1st week of April hardly suggested what much of April turned out to be

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Good afternoon all, happy first day of May! The GFS 06z has a high developing over the British Isles on day 5, so hopefully we will see some settled and perhaps warmer weather for a time.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

But then the end of March and 1st week of April hardly suggested what much of April turned out to be

This is true - but now that the final warming has happened, we have that to contend with. All part of the fun!

 

Edited by mb018538
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The general theme going on the models suggest a settled spell next week and largely dry with sunny spells.. Perhaps similar to back in April... Beyond that the signs of a general cool down and at times unsettled.. Exeter hinting at a warming up towards the final 3rd and more settled again.. I think singularity also hinted at this in an earlier post.. So if that's the way it's gonna be... I will take it.. In the shorter term some decent weather to come one hopes. 

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image.thumb.png.931b22d2b8da4d46881357e696fbe21c.png
 

Almost unanimous ensemble agreement for some cooler weather setting in after the first week is on the mild to warm side. This tying in with an expected moved to -AO and -NAO with high pressure building over Greenland and the pole. Could be good if you like convection and spring showers. If you like the warmth and sunshine, enjoy every bit of what’s coming next week, because it may be a little while before it returns.

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Could be the first proper -AO of 2020. The AO has been strongly and record breakingly positive at times through the winter, feeding back to the record strong PV, and also the reason it was so wet with devastating floods in the UK. 

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Posted (edited)

Incredible -NAO pattern on latest ECM locked in a very chilly pattern there. More chance of verifying with death of polar vortex and it is of course May.

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Edited by Daniel*
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Evening all, just had a look at the ECM 12z... more settled and perhaps warmer weather could be on the cards for next week. However, low pressure out in the Atlantic could bring some spells of rain for parts of the SW, and then into next weekend there could be a spell of perhaps more unsettled weather.

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If you're planning to take your barbecue out soon, next week is surely the chance!

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Take care and enjoy the rest of your evening. :oldsmile:

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Posted (edited)

Brace yaself for some sunning next week, get the lawns cut, perhaps chill and have a beer of the evening... Then get ya ice scrapers ready for the following week, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of wintryness over those mountains with that set up... Alot can change though.. So let's just see how it unfolds... Do take care. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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On 29/04/2020 at 19:31, Zak M said:

By the looks of it... the ECM joins in!!

ECM1-144.gif

If that cold spell was to happen, am I right in thinking it could be very damaging to crops? I remember my parents always worried about frosts once the fruit trees had blossomed?

The recent spell of settled weather showed a breakdown to northwestern blocking but it didn't materialise, let's hope it doesn't this time either (although it's looking ominous)

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.931b22d2b8da4d46881357e696fbe21c.png
 

Almost unanimous ensemble agreement for some cooler weather setting in after the first week is on the mild to warm side. This tying in with an expected moved to -AO and -NAO with high pressure building over Greenland and the pole. Could be good if you like convection and spring showers. If you like the warmth and sunshine, enjoy every bit of what’s coming next week, because it may be a little while before it returns.

The EPS from this morning offers strong support for a similar solution, potential for noteworthy cool weather in Europe.

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Posted (edited)

FOR SOMETHING'S SAKE... we're bound to get frost now, I've just planted out all my seedlings this afternoon... ? 

Edited by Griff
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Evening all ?

Another day of April showers in lowland East London - not quite as sharp as yesterday but we're a long way from summer yet.

So, what of this evening's offerings from the models as we head further into the new month?

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The T+240 charts tonight from ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control

The first thing to say is the GFS OP looks out on its own tonight but even that has some heights over Greenland whereas both ECM and GFS Control have very strong blocking over Greenland so it becomes a question of modelling the trough. ECM has the kind of chart which, if it was at T+6 in early January, would have many salivating uncontrollably. It's a uniformly cold and bleak chart for the British Isles with a strong NE'ly flow bringing plenty of rain or showers. GFS Control has the trough rather further north over Scandinavia so the NE'ly becomes a N'ly or NNW'ly with pockets of -8 850s over Scotland which suggests snow for the mountains.

GEM plays a different game with more extensive blocking from Greenland to the north of the British Isles so the flow is more E or ESE over most parts so dry and fine conditions with decent temperatures by day but a risk of frost at night (for both ECM and GFS Control there would also be a strong likelihood of rural ground frost under any clear skies).

As for the GFS OP, the key difference is the core of heights never becomes established over Greenland but sinks SE back toward the British Isles and by T+240 there are weak heights over us keeping the weather fine and dry. Again reasonable day time values but chilly evenings.

As I've stated before, none of this is unusual for May - as Michael Ventrice points out, the collapse of the PV often allows for a negative NAO/AO regime in May. In some years, the block is over Scandinavia as we saw last week and the British Isles benefits from clear skies and warm sunshine but if the block retrogresses to the NW, the air flow shifts to the north-east or north and that just draws in the cold air from north Scandinavia or the Arctic. In addition, we see lower pressure over Europe in response and that either leaves us in the ECM situation (at the sweet spot between the pressure systems) or under the influence of the trough to the east. Either way, it's cool if not cold and unsettled but this is the Buchan cold spell which we often see in early May. It lasts 7-10 days and what often happens is the Atlantic moves back in before the summer pattern asserts. 

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