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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Am sure all models had strong signals for northern blocking a couple of weeks ago for around now, but that didn’t materialise.

True! I'm hoping for that very common collapse of modelled NW blocking towards the UK, which would lead to more nice settled weather. But this signal is as big as you could possibly expect at the timeframe, so I'm a little concerned that it might happen this time.

Clusters show this up well: height anomalies west, trough anomalies east (and south) - usually a concoction for a N or NEly draw. Cluster 3 could lead to settled weather for the UK and warm if the winds were light (cool with any breeze), but only 20% of the members go for that.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020043000_300.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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I'm not going to get too disheartened, at this early stage...given the number of times forecast spells of cold, Arctic air have failed to materialise, this past year!?

But I guess there must be a first-time for everything?:oldlaugh:

Edited by General Cluster
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Friday looks to be the best day of next week, according to the GFS 12z... temperatures reaching above 20c in the south, with sunshine for the majority of the British Isles, and torrential downpours for the western coasts... nice! :oldgood:

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.c21d0292efdaa34803d399f946a065d7.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.31a00c972f6c1c92c3026c1482640e47.png   ukprec.thumb.png.80fbae4158ce744b0574f4256fce9aac.png

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Well, if there's one thing I've learned from seventeen-years' model-watching, its never expect a cold northerly wind, that's forecast by the GFS to arrive on Day 12, to be worth the wait!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM continues to look best of the bunch, staying more settled through next week and into the weekend. Fingers crossed!

Yes mate and at 216 another ridge from the Azures looks like ridging up to the UK,240 should be a good un

ECM1-216.thumb.gif.552ab413c1638b401d49de3d4ee3b042.gif

this run seems to deflect unsettled weather away,lets hope that continues?

Edit:well that went against my judgement :oldlaugh:

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.ae55449ec971df8d84f825ba0bca32fa.gif

still a good-ish run,not overly warm but mostly settled.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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You nailed it Zak. ? Cracking ECM.. plenty of warm sunny spells at this stage looks a good call... Could be time to fire up the barbi again next week, which in this household is a big occasion ?

BIG UP ALL FRONTLINE WORKERS... LOTS OF LOVE AND RESPECT. Keep safe... 

ECM1-120.gif

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ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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The JMA at 192 ends on a fine note too,i can't see an unsettled breakdown from there?

J192-21.thumb.gif.3eb06d1314300699577fa2668598ce69.gifsource.thumb.gif.df91d3f2c9bfe972214ca5b7a3e8bfc9.gif

THANK YOU NHS.

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Edited by Allseasons-si
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Just catching up, ECM, UKMO & GEFS 12z mean to name but a few are indicating a much more settled spell next week as high pressure returns and in these very dark times under lockdown..a return of sunny days would be most welcome indeed!!☀️..fingers crossed!!?

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Evening all ?

After a typical day of April showers here in lowland East London what will May provide.

Looking out to T+240 tonight and the charts from the usual suspects:

ECM1-240.GIF?30-0gem-0-240.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12gens-0-1-240.png

ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively from the 12Z output.

ECM, not for the first time recently, looks the "odd man out" with heights much lower over Greenland and an Atlantic LP heading towards the British Isles (hinted at on the GFS Control). The tilt of the trough looks more positive too.

The other models all show strong heights to the NW which keeps the jet running well to the south. Control has a pronounced mid Atlantic ridge leaving the British Isles in a very cool NE'ly flow with LP close to the south-east coast while GEM and GFS OP have a broadly N'ly flow with a pronounced trough over Scandinavia showing on the GFS OP.

None of this unusual for early May which often has an E'ly or N'ly flow as the winter flow ebbs.

 

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

Evening all ?

After a typical day of April showers here in lowland East London what will May provide.

Looking out to T+240 tonight and the charts from the usual suspects:

ECM1-240.GIF?30-0gem-0-240.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12gens-0-1-240.png

ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively from the 12Z output.

ECM, not for the first time recently, looks the "odd man out" with heights much lower over Greenland and an Atlantic LP heading towards the British Isles (hinted at on the GFS Control). The tilt of the trough looks more positive too.

The other models all show strong heights to the NW which keeps the jet running well to the south. Control has a pronounced mid Atlantic ridge leaving the British Isles in a very cool NE'ly flow with LP close to the south-east coast while GEM and GFS OP have a broadly N'ly flow with a pronounced trough over Scandinavia showing on the GFS OP.

None of this unusual for early May which often has an E'ly or N'ly flow as the winter flow ebbs.

 

Yes we are more likely to see such charts at this time of year than at any other, easterlies and northerlies a preety common with northern blocking. 

Models are preety similiar this eve, ECM not quite the same as the others longer term making more of the azores high which forces the trough through between heights to the north and SW..a bit suspect. The trend is for a return to settled weather, but under quite a cool airstream, chilly nights, mild days but nothing special with an increasingly chilly N/NE flow a heights advect to our NW. Trough to the east, could become quite showery, pressure most likely to eventually fall to our SW, end result something cyclonic with low heights moving through, back to the here and now synoptic.

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I sure hope that these charts don't come off from day ten,they look shocking in terms of temps

EPS/GEFS mean 500mb and 850's temp anomaly's

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11.thumb.png.b5a7cd6132fc667727df287a2ff87697.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_eu_11.thumb.png.74b5d17b25ab3317691011c7a4c5098d.png

gfs-ens_z500a_eu_41.thumb.png.1e2fa998bd8960ed4650aa143bece69f.pnggfs-ens_T850a_eu_41.thumb.png.a06c66b7421054a1b0a3bb43dfd7bf52.png

cpc 6-10/8-14 days

610day_03.thumb.gif.e8d5b5c47e59c4ab95795f277ba711d9.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.38c77972915985beb29ebf01d1664c38.gif

they all show hp cell retrogressing into the Atlantic and trough over Scandi

GEFS ens show a cool down after day ten

graphe3_1000_265_28___.thumb.png.cc1c3c533623b68b294eae8a29f25a84.png

a long way off and things could/would change so lets see how it goes

18z coming out now,come on gfs give us a BBQ run.....

hey-guys-i-brought-my-grill.thumb.gif.e576e50cda6536d9b4a972d88b8a9ae2.gif

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I sure hope that these charts don't come off from day ten,they look shocking in terms of temps

EPS/GEFS mean 500mb and 850's temp anomaly's

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11.thumb.png.b5a7cd6132fc667727df287a2ff87697.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_eu_11.thumb.png.74b5d17b25ab3317691011c7a4c5098d.png

gfs-ens_z500a_eu_41.thumb.png.1e2fa998bd8960ed4650aa143bece69f.pnggfs-ens_T850a_eu_41.thumb.png.a06c66b7421054a1b0a3bb43dfd7bf52.png

cpc 6-10/8-14 days

610day_03.thumb.gif.e8d5b5c47e59c4ab95795f277ba711d9.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.38c77972915985beb29ebf01d1664c38.gif

they all show hp cell retrogressing into the Atlantic and trough over Scandi

GEFS ens show a cool down after day ten

graphe3_1000_265_28___.thumb.png.cc1c3c533623b68b294eae8a29f25a84.png

a long way off and things could/would change so lets see how it goes

18z coming out now,come on gfs give us a BBQ run.....

hey-guys-i-brought-my-grill.thumb.gif.e576e50cda6536d9b4a972d88b8a9ae2.gif

 

 

Have a feeling judging by T138 on GFS 18z that this could turn out to be a warm one!

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9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Have a feeling judging by T138 on GFS 18z that this could turn out to be a warm one!

Yes looks slightly better than the 12z but from 162 it looks like a northerly is about to pounce.

watch around Iceland.

gfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.d6c47a46b9e176b9a182da45778dcb6a.png

huge blocking unfolding up into Greenland,we would be drooling at a chart like this in winter,this always happens at this time of the year.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Speaking of stonkers, say hello to the GFS 18z NCMRWF 0z!

It's an absolute stonker, considering that it was yesterdays run! And of course, it will 100% verify! :oldlaugh:

ncmrwf-0-132.thumb.png.57bf9554d77431978dd7e3ea023b5aed.png   ncmrwf-0-138.thumb.png.2edf76b4e3716e1672470c28c03d6655.png

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13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Have a feeling judging by T138 on GFS 18z that this could turn out to be a warm one!

And then a thundery breakdown! :oldlaugh:

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I'm certainly not gonna lose any sleep over this 18z run.. Ntly??? Pull the other one... Thats about as likely as a 1 legged bloke at an [email protected] kicking contest. I've not viewed the 18s for some time til now, and you know what... I'm glad... Its the same far fetched story as ever, the garden path is the only place it will ever lead us. I look forward to those heights being gone come the 0z runs.. Don't have nightmares... ?☀️

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-240.png

1p24t6.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm certainly not gonna lose any sleep over this 18z run.. Ntly??? Pull the other one... Thats about as likely as a 1 legged bloke at an [email protected] kicking contest. I've not viewed the 18s for some time til now, and you know what... I'm glad... Its the same far fetched story as ever, the garden path is the only place it will ever lead us. I look forward to those heights being gone come the 0z runs.. Don't have nightmares... ?☀️

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-240.png

1p24t6.jpg

I just hope the lack of...

giphy.thumb.gif.860c29bf4e50e2dcc75d01107ecd0fe5.gif

...proves too be correct?

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1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Will have a look at the 18z ens before I comment. Wish me luck lol night all. 

Just looked and opp not on its own really. More than half follow it with the northerly flow. Opp run in black. Can you believe it snow risk icon by the 9th of May. Cant make it up. 

graphe3_1000_276_21___.png

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