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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Can't be wrong at that range surely?

You'd hope so, but the lack of flight data.... 

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Great continuity from the ECM 0z to the 12z with high pressure becoming the dominant feature next week and gradually turning warmer too as the anticyclone adjusts into a more favourable position / orientation...fingers crossed it’s right!☀️??

B6D09439-11D1-4E20-A564-DFF036E6EFCE.thumb.png.a051cf38c501a50dad199e2112d4b53b.png08FA0024-5E76-4C2D-8A14-C8650AEB57F6.thumb.png.c5461f363443137ffd5ab44fe45f3996.pngF75EB2FE-CE4D-4581-BD71-216717E8797F.thumb.png.ac931d32c18897835fb22b8c6107b68a.png7863AEEE-1504-4A97-AFFB-E196AA9A0428.thumb.png.3941b4cb7f90bfebd1348f1f85ba2078.pngEA82C11F-9931-447B-8134-B59895241DD0.thumb.png.a9a097c73d8f00616d57e5a318f3ce97.pngEE8DF80B-7BFE-4827-839F-76AC767E2771.thumb.png.1a26e84893e8f71aa426f713a70cd989.pngB9E4DF36-5EBD-4BA2-8899-E2AA2F4C031C.thumb.png.0f4bdf04953eddf32540c9192356592e.png

 

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some more great post's in here again today guys,everyone would think it was winter:whistling:

@Singularity the gfs being the party pooper?

GEFS mean at 144 hrs v's the ECM mean,now i hope that the ECM is correct here

gensnh-21-1-144.thumb.png.4c6b8db5206eff811367e1493bf4abcf.pngEDH1-144.thumb.gif.bab281fd2a0d641611be3855fd42f824.gif

i quiet like the GEM too after 120 and also shows the plume pushing up from the south then to possibly break down later on with showers or thunderstorms

anim_kqh8.thumb.gif.38d98829fc393ec0a3117783a2e8bb14.gifanim_oxu1.thumb.gif.80a0711340812435cf245abc3097931c.gifanim_ucj1.thumb.gif.9e157b7f1bff479590d2435d32aa96c7.gif

the latest from cpc looks good from 6-10 days then the hp cell retrogresses west into the Atlantic

610day_03.thumb.gif.906617692653fcaeb5939c97153765db.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.97eb66af856460c19ee87041c2268f13.gif

so plenty(as always)to keep tabs on.

 

 

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GFS 18z showing the beginning of a thundery breakdown from the warm temperatures at 165

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.81f9abfd9bad6445eee2d93b0d97ab91.png   ukprec.thumb.png.56174f6f519d1c8fe8c53f1223083b39.png   ukstormrisk.thumb.png.1c77789a61bc316f8a8700df96d0aeff.png   ukcapeli.thumb.png.dd718ddcb2951c6db6eba4b73323aa62.png

Hopefully we start to see storms like this soon at night ?

375516289_giphy(1).thumb.gif.5db42c20efc5ba14801d44a05c678af7.gif

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32 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The Icon holding steady at 120

18z 120 v's 12z 126

icon-0-120.thumb.png.4577f1cad795cc0ebcc09e61a9959447.pngicon-0-126.thumb.png.56bc0edd47ee8d03bb4f57cb5a7d294d.png

Shirley it's right at this range?

download.thumb.jpg.fb932deae259883d7bd0c29627ee9dec.jpg

 

 

Hopefully it's not Phil of shi. 

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2 hours ago, Singularity said:

It's time to play that classic game, spot the odd one out:

ECM1-144.GIF UW144-21.GIF gfs-0-144.png 
gem-0-144.png J144-21.GIF icon-0-144.png

Admittedly, you could call it two different odd ones out if you factor in the location of the peak SLP and not just how strong the ridge is ?.

ECM goes on to produce conditions reminiscent of what we saw a lot of earlier this month.

Interesting that height rises to the NW keep on appearing here and there but never stick around - possibly the N. Atlantic SST pattern, with big warm anomalies east of Newfoundland and cool anomalies northeast of there, is working in favour of lower pressure there, as it appeared to do May-Jul 2018.

Are we looking at mid 20s in this set up ? , still learning but want clarification. Thanks 

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So looking increasingly like high pressure will indeed pay a visit next week, with low pressure relegated to a thundery pest from the west. Various takes on whether the plume will make it - most runs not that keen, but the UKMO could give a couple of warm/hot days with this:

UW144-7.GIF?30-07

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According to the GFS 00Z, our beloved plume is starting to look like a bit of a pipe-dream:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But the really scary stuff is reserved for the post-Day 10 period...a type of weather I truly detest, and which I hope is yet another manifestation of the GFS's infamous cold bias...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Even Voltaire's Dr Pangloss would have trouble making weather like that look good!:oldlaugh:

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The ECM 0z det / op shows high pressure paying a visit to the u k next week bringing a very pleasant spell for most which would be a big improvement on what we have this week!☀️

DBF1CA46-DD98-42C4-8F9A-740335018028.thumb.gif.f33d0cd687c566400fc1eb068523b598.gifE31840F2-86DC-4B15-8172-FDAF3AE18DED.thumb.gif.b7d563c54dc77fad63e28f4394bd13e3.gifE9FBED7B-EFC9-4219-BD12-0CE7879BAF5C.thumb.gif.c8c0d91a864c2ccd523a33168539c65d.gifA192B09A-95A8-4302-BF4B-F027B54889CE.thumb.gif.aa2aefe00c335d231a65df773f719f38.gifBA15B32A-EC24-4FA0-B89D-0633322C042D.thumb.gif.329968e57acc9b8f4954dea212640767.gif4B8BB3AE-8100-45E0-9726-0690DE90DBF1.thumb.gif.3b73610e970dadc4467e20b6ab04fc9b.gif

 

 

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image.thumb.png.178ca88c00e306c1317454384ca3b3e5.png

This wouldn’t be a good set up at D10! 
 

Some nice warmer weather possible for a time next week looking more likely though. Enjoy it if it arrives!

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32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.178ca88c00e306c1317454384ca3b3e5.png

This wouldn’t be a good set up at D10! 
 

Some nice warmer weather possible for a time next week looking more likely though. Enjoy it if it arrives!

It's at day 10 though...the models are still not clear on day 5, let alone day 10.

Edited by Scorcher
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45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.178ca88c00e306c1317454384ca3b3e5.png

This wouldn’t be a good set up at D10! 
 

Some nice warmer weather possible for a time next week looking more likely though. Enjoy it if it arrives!

Had a flick through the ECM ensembles at D15 and the signal for high pressure to the NW is huge - I might normally think ECM is going off on one but the GEFS has plenty of similar members. Unusual to get such strong signals at this long range. It doesn't completely rule out warmer weather but it would make it a lot harder.

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Had a flick through the ECM ensembles at D15 and the signal for high pressure to the NW is huge - I might normally think ECM is going off on one but the GEFS has plenty of similar members. Unusual to get such strong signals at this long range. It doesn't completely rule out warmer weather but it would make it a lot harder.

My thoughts too MWB. Not unusual at this time of year either. Once northern blocks start taking hold with a -AO pattern, it’s not usually a good UK set up. Can’t really complain too much after how amazing April has been though!

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Am sure all models had strong signals for northern blocking a couple of weeks ago for around now, but that didn’t materialise.

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I guess the 06Z isn't all that bad; at least up to Day 9:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

After that, however, it's down the toilet (for at least six days!) we go!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Please, Mr God, let it be the GFS's cold bias...I'll be good!:oldlaugh:

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Afternoon All ! Anyone wanting some early heat may be a bit dissapointed. Both Ecm and Gfs show pressure building across the nation, next week but as the air is sourced from the north it won't be that warm with some pontentially cold nights with some frost. Looks like some lovely sunny days for most perhaps the gfs is overdoing the showers and lower pressure to the south west  of Britain. ....

ecmt850.120.png

h850t850eu-1.png

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Subtle differences in the short to medium range.

The Euro has a largely settled, dry and probably sunny spell for the UK from Monday-Friday and is supported by the UKMO for the Mon-Wednesday period.

The GFS although keeping fronts away from anywhere but the south looks dry, chilly and probably cloudy with lower pressure values and a more direct flow off the North Sea.

Beauty of a day 15 chart though.

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Edited by summer blizzard
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