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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Th prospect of a plume for the first weekend of May reminds me of 1998  when it was just about as warm a start of May as I recall, But better remembered by me for the birth of my daughter!   If it does come off, it certainly wouldn't bear any relation to the previous month which I recall being very wet and occasionally cold!

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And of course, along with most Spanish plumes, is the risk of thunderstorms :oldlaugh:

1756559387_ukprec(1).thumb.png.7a3bad0b097b3f989fd453254625c0ca.png   ukstormrisk.thumb.png.e9c30f617241683bf7e2019df8995331.png   1223615025_ukprec(2).thumb.png.fc5600a82314d185bdf8b129b52daee3.png   1444467753_ukstormrisk(1).thumb.png.57eecb605eb9184e776017e08d1542b5.png

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EC clusters - close to the plume but I'm guessing the warmest air is forecast to miss atm - plenty of time to change though, cluster 1 would give potential for a "hit" with that cut-off low, cluster 4 probably a brush with the SE corner.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020042700_204.

Further along into May - 60% of runs (clusters 2 and 3) bring a ridge reasonably close to the UK, which may benefit SW areas in particular, whilst 40% (cluster 1) maintains a trough over the UK. In short - no real indication of the way forward for May. Probably need to see how this plume over Europe develops first. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020042700_300.

 

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The mean not quite so keen as the ECM op for a plume, all things considered it should be warming up come the weekend... In the short term Tuesday is looking a potentially wet day with the rain now showing its hand over France... And it as out name firmly written on it... So all in all an eventful several days ahead... Stay safe. 

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-192.gif

graphe0_00_285_106___.png

2020-04-27-12-37-12.png

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53 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And of course, along with most Spanish plumes, is the risk of thunderstorms :oldlaugh:

1756559387_ukprec(1).thumb.png.7a3bad0b097b3f989fd453254625c0ca.png   ukstormrisk.thumb.png.e9c30f617241683bf7e2019df8995331.png   1223615025_ukprec(2).thumb.png.fc5600a82314d185bdf8b129b52daee3.png   1444467753_ukstormrisk(1).thumb.png.57eecb605eb9184e776017e08d1542b5.png

Looks very tasty, just needs bringing forward 6 hours to allow for a more favourable time of day (well, night ? ) ?

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h850t850eu.png

This potential vigorous low peripheral to a fairly potent plume for the time of year... has my attention.

hgt300.png hgt300.png

Hard to see when side-by-side, but GFS has been trending slower with the north-east motion of the trough. It's coming closer to cutting-off, though I'm not sure it'll ever quite get that far.

It's now close to what the 00z ECM depicted. 

This scenario brings the risk of some severe thunderstorms, depending on how well the low-level flow brings in very warm and moist air beneath the cooler, drier air being driven eastward by the low.

So, something worth keeping an eye on. Could lead to some huge rainfall totals in places, especially if it then becomes trapped for a while by the Azores High extending northeast and across to its north, as some model runs have been suggesting.

Once it clears, comes our shot at a return to fine, dry weather as that's when the lagged response of the AAM rise should start to make itself known (never mind how poorly recent GFS runs have been illustrating that!).

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55 minutes ago, Singularity said:

h850t850eu.png

This potential vigorous low peripheral to a fairly potent plume for the time of year... has my attention.

hgt300.png hgt300.png

Hard to see when side-by-side, but GFS has been trending slower with the north-east motion of the trough. It's coming closer to cutting-off, though I'm not sure it'll ever quite get that far.

It's now close to what the 00z ECM depicted. 

This scenario brings the risk of some severe thunderstorms, depending on how well the low-level flow brings in very warm and moist air beneath the cooler, drier air being driven eastward by the low.

So, something worth keeping an eye on. Could lead to some huge rainfall totals in places, especially if it then becomes trapped for a while by the Azores High extending northeast and across to its north, as some model runs have been suggesting.

Once it clears, comes our shot at a return to fine, dry weather as that's when the lagged response of the AAM rise should start to make itself known (never mind how poorly recent GFS runs have been illustrating that!).

I hope so! Longer term into May the ECM and GFS both have Ely trades dominating the scene, which isn’t usually good news for the UK.

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Evening all. Still some pretty high temperatures to come next weekend from what could be our first Spanish plume of the year, with temperatures into the low-twenties possible in the south. The GFS 12z ends the plume with a thundery breakdown. It will be uncertain what happens after the plume, but right now, the latest GFS run is showing some days of rain and some days of sunshine, with temperatures around average for the time of year.

2049441180_ukstormrisk(2).thumb.png.646b309cee9b43a5c924ead42f5d72fc.png   816590037_ukstormrisk(3).thumb.png.e4bb193ebb75338b37dc514c6c345865.png   1895356446_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.19c72ce92263b8e7164c3ed10335006c.png   950340060_h500slp(5).thumb.png.12fed3c620d51015e831db59b2da4520.png   2089091297_h500slp(6).thumb.png.40ef6d2b88c8d5a24eb494d50d31348a.png   384368601_h500slp(7).thumb.png.de247769e30978f87c7f275f96166770.png

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Icon model was first to pick up the prospect of continental tropical heat drift next week close to the British Isles. Ecm model seems to be supporting that on this evenings latest run. Ripe for heat low formations . As usual time and more runs will tell but interesting charts all he same.

 C

ECMOPEU12_192_2.png

Edited by carinthian
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It's nice to see a heat-peak (and maybe even some storms!) at or around Star Wars Day; but, by the time we get to the 8th, all is lost amongst the scatter: :oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

May the Fourth be with you?:oldlaugh:

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Just now, mb018538 said:

ECM looks very optimistic. Almost certainly a very warm outlier (though hoping deep down its correct!)

Just saw it myself. It's a cracker.

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks very optimistic. Almost certainly a very warm outlier (though hoping deep down its correct!)

Nah it’ll be a cold outlier! ?

in all seriousness, it may be towards the warm end of the ensembles, but the whole evolution is on a knife-edge, so wouldn’t take much for it to come off.

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I hope so! Longer term into May the ECM and GFS both have Ely trades dominating the scene, which isn’t usually good news for the UK.

Yeah, those trades aren't going to help matters - but thankfully, it's not as simple as A + B = C when it comes to the downstream impacts, thanks to the presence of the Atlantic Ocean and its various mannerisms.

 

Back to the near-term modelling and we sure have an interesting conundrum manifesting in the mid-range.

ECM1-120.GIF icon-0-120.png gem-0-120.png

ECM 12z is more progressive in moving the leading trough (the one arriving as I type this) away east Sat-Sun, which coupled with even slower movement of the low out west, allows a ridge to build between the two features. ICON also does this, though not quite as much so. The same is true of GEM - but note the little low it has south of Greenland. Important going forward.

ECM1-144.GIF icon-0-144.png gem-0-144.png
UW144-21.GIF gfs-0-144.png J144-21.GIF

Sorry for the bombardment but I wanted to hammer home the distinct divide in solutions present at +144 hours. This is actually caused by that little low south of Greenland (JMA had it too), rather than the slowing of the low west of Iberia or the quicker eastward motion of the low that affects us this Wed-Fri. 


It's interesting that GFS falls into the less progressive camp alongside UKMO and ICON, yet develops much more of a low than ICON, with greater NE movement.

ECM is in a league of its own - whether its a more successful one,remains to be seen.

ICON also enters its own league between +144 and +168. It does this by fully cutting-off the low west of Iberia - something I've been contemplating the possibility of having seen the slowing-down trend of the parent trough in the GFS modelling today.

icon-0-168.png

Alas, with GEM and JMA on such different paths, we can't sensibly expect that slowing trend to continue in GFS, or ECM to hold its ground, or ICON for that matter. Only hope, if you like it summer-like in early May!

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Hi everyone,hope you are all well

@DiagonalRedLine,thanks for the nice post/reply^

the ECM as some have said above is a beauty isn't it and will be interesting to see where it sits in the ens soon

a closer look:-

at 72 hours has a little nasty low in the SW

ECU1-72.thumb.gif.c192442e276875baefae428681777442.gif

then from 144 hrs>

ECU1-144.thumb.gif.a0c39057645c31377459b19f57a32d0a.gifECU1-168.thumb.gif.a4a0ef3cbf151ed6e3b1a7ce23fa0c1e.gifECU1-192.thumb.gif.e925c6acad08a3434c960b0a20bc9daf.gifECU1-216.thumb.gif.7ffeb72e950c61e5610a39b4dc4c17ba.gifECU1-240.thumb.gif.e9816cf1c9b09b3884f0bcc3fb688105.giftenor.gif.2f3a8785a3bddfe07a367c44b03ef9c3.gif

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Quite a shift in the overall pattern of recent weeks taking place, and a volatile set up makes medium range forecasting very uncertain, fine margins between cool and unsettled or something warm and unsettled by the weekend. In the short term, some significant rainfall for much of England and Wales to end what was looking like being a very dry April, alas the next 3 days will put pay to that. Also much cooler, tomorrow looking particularly cool in central england, wouldn't be surprised if many spots struggle to make 8 degrees, which under rain and leaden skies will come as a shock.

As said the end of the week looks messy, the trough will be close but pulled back further west allowing a surge of warmer uppers from the south, more so in the SE, a thundery interlude could well be the end result with convective downpours popping up all over the place.

Looking further beyond, signs we may see a ridge building through mid atlantic to the north behind the trough, but with low pressure/ltrough formation to our SW, we could be looking at a trough dominated scenario, cool in the north, something warmer in the south. 

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