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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Raw ECM values now suggest to me 25C may be reached tomorrow and Friday, and maximums above 20C in the south east until the middle of next week if rain stays away - a far better picture than forecast a couple of days ago.

Clusters not working today but looking at ECM ensemble graphs, looking fairly average start to May with some rain around, perhaps settling down a bit more towards the end of the first week. I'm taking it with a pinch of salt though as the models haven't really settled on anything beyond D5 recently. Lack of data?

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Raw ECM values now suggest to me 25C may be reached tomorrow and Friday, and maximums above 20C in the south east until the middle of next week if rain stays away - a far better picture than forecast a couple of days ago.

Clusters not working today but looking at ECM ensemble graphs, looking fairly average start to May with some rain around, perhaps settling down a bit more towards the end of the first week. I'm taking it with a pinch of salt though as the models haven't really settled on anything beyond D5 recently. Lack of data?

May I just clarify what you mean by raw data as against other data. Thanks

 

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Looking at the GEFS 6z there’s plenty more high pressure and glorious sunshine to enjoy during the next few days, the mean then shows what would be wintry charts if it was winter but then there are some encouraging signs that early May..MAY see another warm up!?☀️
 

8B0AE53B-1314-437C-8229-65CDD8B40205.thumb.png.9a282b50907134e9c35a7bfc152f8d42.pngE09DC301-AA8D-4905-AE4E-84715EEC97EE.thumb.png.474431324a51b9fb8984d491b20e9183.png30499BB7-ECC7-44F7-97D0-2A6877BB9B74.thumb.png.992c3d776c4ba00cfd2085eb620e2770.png4BDADC41-78A5-40CE-9AE4-8655000C2B94.thumb.png.8dc5eaf02081ee8aeeb0572eb3cf31b5.png90B78146-A4AB-4B6B-9963-C746984B8182.thumb.png.677bff9cebf24f1ca001903bb354194a.png47C2CC2E-80B1-427C-920D-9607C9C3771F.thumb.png.767838f55802e83ac3a906984659f3f5.png7B306291-0E97-47BB-AA82-9E4C1E7BADEF.thumb.png.a6dcf6fd8ebfadefced17d7a82811e8b.pngB92FD1ED-3952-4D5F-A6F7-7759AC8E0898.thumb.png.ea6f1c8550d414c53241fb194d6fd241.png94A10CA3-5B7B-484E-8700-772E31D5AA80.thumb.gif.99de67af605946e370140fc44d58f630.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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56 minutes ago, knocker said:

May I just clarify what you mean by raw data as against other data. Thanks

 

Hi Knocker - hope you are doing well - I'm using the same descriptions as I have in in previous summers - in settled spells, where ECM shows a maximum temperature on its temperature charts, the actual maximum usually ends up being between 2C and 4C higher, an adjustment which has worked very well for a couple of summers now (unless the modelling changes of course, but within D2 and D3 it is likely to verify). So by raw, I mean what the ECM actually shows. I think I saw others using "raw data" as a term to describe numbers on a model output, and I must have just taken it on board ? 

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Hi Knocker - hope you are doing well - I'm using the same descriptions as I have in in previous summers - in settled spells, where ECM shows a maximum temperature on its temperature charts, the actual maximum usually ends up being between 2C and 4C higher, an adjustment which has worked very well for a couple of summers now (unless the modelling changes of course, but within D2 and D3 it is likely to verify). So by raw, I mean what the ECM actually shows. I think I saw others using "raw data" as a term to describe numbers on a model output, and I must have just taken it on board ? 

Thanks MWB, I'm fine at the moment. I assumed that is what you meant but just making sure As a matter of interest this how we are looking today

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7578400.thumb.png.d766036b0419baa5f9adc763e28f63cc.png14.thumb.gif.3347987a921418ea2be6bf114722393d.gif

Edited by knocker
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Looking at the Gfs 12z operational next week doesn’t look too bad at all, sure there’s a few showers dotted around (some heavy and  perhaps thundery) but with plenty of fine sunny spells and temperature wise, predominantly mid teens c range across southern u k / rather cooler further north but with some milder pockets at times, heights to the NE, even by the end of next week mean any Atlantic fronts bringing persistent rain struggle to make much eastward progress against the block and actually fizzles / gets pushed further west.

35AD306B-2492-4868-8CC2-4C4F3CE711DB.thumb.png.64e45288c336a2d89dddd258a9e63d1b.png6591B061-F218-401E-905C-BA4E936D0CBF.thumb.png.11d503b6d842331bf8f9e28da5fa22f0.png0120871C-E0DB-48CD-AFFA-520EE890E46A.thumb.png.e14f992bcdfed5ab1bc4b17bac7ef897.png18D13139-A0B5-48BF-9261-08929BF11EC4.thumb.png.b6083d4cd0041af8c1abae985e8f1333.pngE93D16D5-D267-46D2-B34A-E6C5B57336B9.thumb.png.75daff365d3754fd3639b391de0cfa3f.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Hoping that the unsettled blip next week will be just that. Doesn’t look too bad overall, and certainly better than the horrid northern blocking which was showing a few days ago.

ECM 12z shows HP ridging back towards the end of next week.

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3 hours ago, knocker said:

Thanks MWB, I'm fine at the moment. I assumed that is what you meant but just making sure As a matter of interest this how we are looking today

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7578400.thumb.png.d766036b0419baa5f9adc763e28f63cc.png14.thumb.gif.3347987a921418ea2be6bf114722393d.gif

Thanks for that - I'll check against the Met Office details later - I'm constantly checking this correlation, and more than happy to "update" my forecasting strategy if I detect a lasting change! (Maybe the drop in emissions across Europe is affecting temperatures?) Using a combination of ECM, ARPEGE and AROME, I'd forecast 24C or 25C tomorrow, I'll be checking later ?

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I doubt if the lack of emissions would suppress temperatures as I’m sure it would take a while for that to affect CO2. It may, however, increase the chances of higher temperature with the air being clearer.

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Not often I say this, especially not at this time of year, but I'll be happy to see an unsettled spell, we need some rain and might as well have it now. Its been over 5 weeks since we had any appreciable rainfall.

Models are showing a slow change come the weekend, pressure falling away, slack low pressure airstream bringing chance of showers or bursts of rain, and a cooler northerly airflow for the north at least. Into next week, jetstream finally waking up and making a beeline for the UK, so we end the month and start May on a much more unsettled note, with temps back down to average.

Not looking beyond this timeframe, as I've noted how many times longer range model trends seem to be have gone bust in recent weeks, as shorter term changes have derailed them.. patterns seems to have had a habit of sticking around for quite sometime. 

Not looked at the jetstream profile forecasts in weeks, today's show a resurgent more zonal aligned jet from 30 April onwards up until 7th May at least.

Edited by damianslaw
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Looking longer term, the GEFS 0z indicates high pressure could be building in again between early / mid May. We are clearly heading into a more unsettled period beyond the next few days but it MAY not last too long!?☀️

7CA6C210-83F0-493A-94FD-5087DDDF0168.thumb.png.c3c9d777d88a8c323d04df6ab19f2b53.png49898391-C81D-4416-9F52-1D7671F510D9.thumb.png.6663619bb33cb31c643611f54f6baa09.pngADDBE23F-FD5E-4CC4-AFB4-4EEC9702BE67.thumb.png.306bd7eeb7e0e7b6296c5cb8e838f3f7.png5981F041-0062-4E84-AD96-601DCDE49F12.thumb.png.05fdc61aff993f1c8867d5f50f084eed.pngCFC7B27E-7F84-4800-B7DC-9AF42C7B5350.thumb.png.93c1aa8157403a22b108998a3a5f88d7.pngDC7AF331-E1B7-46DA-9DCB-165CC9E119F1.thumb.png.88dfc0dbe6f71c1aa75e9342ebcc281f.png 

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Day 9, on the ever-trusty GFS 00Z, and is the Continental warm-up about to deliver the goods; could we be destined for some warm, humid and possibly thundery weather, as we proceed into May...?⛈️

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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So - we might still see enough of a push from the west to turn things 'properly' unsettled for at least a few days starting Thu next week. ECM's the only one of the 00z det. runs still moving the low by Newfoundland quickly enough to phase with the one south of Iceland and prevent it heading east to pay the UK a visit.


A huge OTT award to the GEM 00z by the way. Takes a small subtropical disturbance and escalates it to the extreme following engagement with cold polar maritime air. Just imagine if this actually transpired! ?

gem-0-198.png?00

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19 minutes ago, Singularity said:

So - we might still see enough of a push from the west to turn things 'properly' unsettled for at least a few days starting Thu next week. ECM's the only one of the 00z det. runs still moving the low by Newfoundland quickly enough to phase with the one south of Iceland and prevent it heading east to pay the UK a visit.


A huge OTT award to the GEM 00z by the way. Takes a small subtropical disturbance and escalates it to the extreme following engagement with cold polar maritime air. Just imagine if this actually transpired! ?

gem-0-198.png?00

I think gfs might trend back westwards in future runs!!seems to be a slight outlier with how low the pressure gets at the end of the month!!and most certainly dont want that gem run to become reality!!

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:


A huge OTT award to the GEM 00z by the way. Takes a small subtropical disturbance and escalates it to the extreme following engagement with cold polar maritime air. Just imagine if this actually transpired! ?

gem-0-198.png?00

I would have to say I would interpret this a little differently. There is indeed a trough that exits the eastern seaboard which attempts to phase with main trough

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But fails and from this point the main trough deepens quickly near the left ext of the jet

gem-all-natl_wide-z500_anom-8291200.thumb.png.f6848e475e2b942bc4b01fbc8636bd97.pnggem-all-natl_wide-z300_speed-8291200.thumb.png.198d4ebbac4f9ecdb573b4a634278e62.pnggem-all-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8291200.thumb.png.e9b86554565fff546de77adcc75f6c82.png

But hey ho that's model discussion

 

Edited by knocker
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Aaahhh!!!!

yes Karl,i will have P12 with the +18 uppers thanks?️☀️?️?

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a long way out at 312 but we can only hope after a dip in the ens around the end of the month,May could start on a fine note as was most of April

loving this weather of late and i hope it continues

stay safe all and have a good day

laters.

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18 hours ago, knocker said:

Thanks MWB, I'm fine at the moment. I assumed that is what you meant but just making sure As a matter of interest this how we are looking today

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7578400.thumb.png.d766036b0419baa5f9adc763e28f63cc.png14.thumb.gif.3347987a921418ea2be6bf114722393d.gif

Confirmed max for yesterday 22.6C at Hurn ... a 1.6C increase on ECM modelled temperatures for the same day - a bit of a lower increase than usual but still a bit of a lift on the predicted value.

Possibilities of something much more unsettled by the first weekend of May, according to the EC clusters this morning (particularly cluster 2). However, my sense is that longer-term forecasting is even more fraught with trouble than usual. Outside chance of a very warm draw arising from cluster 1 though even this one is unlikely to be dry:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020042300_240.

 

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Hi MWB

Confirmed max for yesterday 22.6C at Hurn ... a 1.6C increase on ECM modelled temperatures for the same day - a bit of a lower increase than usual but still a bit of a lift on the predicted value

 

+/- 2C is, I believe, considered correct for a forecast by UK Met!

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