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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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The good news this fine morning is that we have another Gfs run dominated by high pressure / ridging from start to finish. The 0z indicates temps being variable due to the position / orientation of the high(s) but in any sunshine it would feel pleasant enough..great to see another run with NO Atlantic dross!☀️?

ps..still a showery spell for the south tomoz and weekend but looking at the bigger picture it’s nae bad at all!?

Edited by JON SNOW
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After this weekends crazy weather, the GFS 12z has signs of more settled weather developing again across the majority of the UK, with temperatures perhaps 1-2c above average in the south.

1672947699_h500slp(4).thumb.png.7615d8cb2c10e54d7c52cb8cf6560c91.png   435242734_h500slp(5).thumb.png.f79a519fdb6c9a84c2914e9e5eb23333.png

And then the week after next week there are signs of something a little more chilly.

516999314_h500slp(6).thumb.png.d49f95683787b826c8ca8837374b6dfc.png   559186530_h500slp(7).thumb.png.e6a972434896b7e74fd41a712f17e625.png

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15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

After this weekends crazy weather, the GFS 12z has signs of more settled weather developing again across the majority of the UK, with temperatures perhaps 1-2c above average in the south.

1672947699_h500slp(4).thumb.png.7615d8cb2c10e54d7c52cb8cf6560c91.png   435242734_h500slp(5).thumb.png.f79a519fdb6c9a84c2914e9e5eb23333.png

And then the week after next week there are signs of something a little more chilly.

516999314_h500slp(6).thumb.png.d49f95683787b826c8ca8837374b6dfc.png   559186530_h500slp(7).thumb.png.e6a972434896b7e74fd41a712f17e625.png

Let's just stick to the first two charts and ignore the other two ???

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27 minutes ago, Zak M said:

After this weekends crazy weather, the GFS 12z has signs of more settled weather developing again across the majority of the UK, with temperatures perhaps 1-2c above average in the south.

 

What is going to be ‘crazy’ about it? One day with a thundery shower risk and one day of cloud. 

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Well, as hoped, today was an absolute stonker! And Monday doesn't look like being too shabby either:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A great wee spell, for one's vitamin D absorption, methinks...:clapping::oldgood::yahoo:

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Looking at the Gfs 12z operational there’s certainly an increasing thunderstorm risk for the south during the next few days but most of the u k looks fine.

4D84C9DD-28DD-4FA3-898F-D2D1CCC6B801.thumb.png.497955bb8d43e8247bec575312c78f0b.png220B68DD-E7B8-4758-91F9-7B1EA648D4F9.thumb.png.5910bc905a0e1082b229cef96de98722.png

 

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2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational there’s certainly an increasing thunderstorm risk for the south during the next few days but most of the u k looks fine.

4D84C9DD-28DD-4FA3-898F-D2D1CCC6B801.thumb.png.497955bb8d43e8247bec575312c78f0b.png220B68DD-E7B8-4758-91F9-7B1EA648D4F9.thumb.png.5910bc905a0e1082b229cef96de98722.png

 

???

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Evening all ?

The T+240 view tonight from the main models:

gem-0-240.png?12ECM1-240.GIF?16-0gfs-0-240.png?12gens-0-1-240.png

Respectively - GEM, ECM, GFS Op, GFS Control

You pays your money - well, you know the rest.

As always, huge differences depending on where heights are located - strong heights to the NW and the threat of that colder incursion from Scandinavia remains but nothing so stark from ECM which keeps the core of heights over or just to the NE and GFS OP which aligns the heights nearer to the British Isles so it's an E'ly but nothing very dramatic although the European trough is close.

JMA continues to keep very strong heights over Greenland and to the north so it's a robust E'ly - it looks like another of those "if it were only January" runs.

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2 hours ago, Zak M said:

After this weekends crazy weather, the GFS 12z has signs of more settled weather developing again across the majority of the UK, with temperatures perhaps 1-2c above average in the south.

1672947699_h500slp(4).thumb.png.7615d8cb2c10e54d7c52cb8cf6560c91.png   435242734_h500slp(5).thumb.png.f79a519fdb6c9a84c2914e9e5eb23333.png

And then the week after next week there are signs of something a little more chilly.

516999314_h500slp(6).thumb.png.d49f95683787b826c8ca8837374b6dfc.png   559186530_h500slp(7).thumb.png.e6a972434896b7e74fd41a712f17e625.png

"this weekends crazy weather" ? Am i missing something? Doesn't seem particularly crazy anywhere. A few thunderstorms in the far south mebs?

 

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21 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Lockdownitis it happening to all of us lol.

One thing you can't lockdown is the weather! - just as well.. mind the atlantic has seemingly gone into lockdown at exact same time we all did, and must have listened to today's three week extension.. uncanny timing.

Edited by damianslaw
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Really good run from the GFS 18Z tonight if you want the settled weather to continue.

Are the models finally beginning to back away from the idea of retrogression of the high? Certainly seems that way to me.

Looks like high pressure could be with us for a while longer and another warm up from Tuesday looks likely.

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

One thing you can't lockdown is the weather! - just as well.. mind the atlantic has seemingly gone into lockdown at exact same time we all did, and must have listened to today's three week extension.. uncanny timing.

But reinforces my perception that April, May & June often bring the best of the weather overall, based on the last 10 years plus...

 

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9 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Really good run from the GFS 18Z tonight if you want the settled weather to continue.

Are the models finally beginning to back away from the idea of retrogression of the high? Certainly seems that way to me.

Looks like high pressure could be with us for a while longer and another warm up from Tuesday looks likely.

Yes, the idea of retrogression is not as prominent as it was a day or so ago. After the showery blip, it looks settled with temperatures slightly above average, although eastern coasts will be cooler.

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43 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, the idea of retrogression is not as prominent as it was a day or so ago. After the showery blip, it looks settled with temperatures slightly above average, although eastern coasts will be cooler.

The mega northern blocking that was predicted looks like not happening for now. At day 10 there isn’t a great deal of high pressure over the pole - NOAA anomalies showing this too. AO and NAO staying around neutral or slightly positive. The only trend I can maybe see is slightly cooler and a bit more unsettled by the end of April - both GFS and ECM ensembles are heading this way. Until then dry and temperatures doing pretty well on the whole.

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well this seems a decent height anomaly and an actual contour ridge, not too far  from the pole?

610day.03.gif

If I can get it to load the one several days ago showed a similar pattern.

 

1st two comments to mid jan.doc 2.81 MB · 3 downloads

I mentioned the longer term - if you go to the 8-14 day anomalies, that ridge is weakening. The day 10 NH profile below shows no high level blocking at all as the heights to the NW recede between day 6-10.

image.thumb.png.1a13125340743f43364971bdd1d24c6b.png

 

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