Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mb018538]

I thought the ECM looked a bit iffy towards 192-240 this morning. Probably because it’s an outlier:

Outlook still looks pretty decent on the whole.

[shaky]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I thought the ECM looked a bit iffy towards 192-240 this morning. Probably because it’s an outlier:

Outlook still looks pretty decent on the whole.

On the topic of outliers!!ukmo looks a big outlier at just 72 hours when you compare it to ecm and gfs!!!takes the little shortwave through wales and into southern england where as the ecm and gfs take it way west near south west ireland and then slides away further south!!

[johnholmes]

I got this reply from the Met Office re the effect of the loss of aircraft movements, the link profided has already been seen on here. A few years ago I might have got a direct reply from the senior man. but they like me, are now sitting at home!

Dear John,

Thank you for your email.

With reduced air travel, there is a knock on effect of reduce observations being involved in our modelling. However, aviation data is only one of many elements which are used in our modelling.

An interesting article you can also include is https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

If you have any further queries or need additional information, please contact our Weather Desk on +44 (0)1392 88 5680 where one of our advisors will be happy to help.  The number is open 24 hours a day, every day of the year and it will help us if you can quote the reference number given above.

Kind regards,

James

Weather Desk Advisor

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters don't have much time for the op's idea for D8-D10 (it dubiously puts it in a settled cluster though!)

Even out to D12/D13, the settled members are well in the majority. Cluster 1 may have been cold 6 weeks ago, but likely to be warm by the end of April with a continental flow, even very warm.

[mb018538]

45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters don't have much time for the op's idea for D8-D10 (it dubiously puts it in a settled cluster though!)

Even out to D12/D13, the settled members are well in the majority. Cluster 1 may have been cold 6 weeks ago, but likely to be warm by the end of April with a continental flow, even very warm.

Looks good. With AAM very high and MJO going through 7/8/1 it certainly favours blocking in our neck of the woods, and certainly doesn’t point to unsettled taking over at the moment. Payback for the terrible floods of the winter.

[Singularity]

GFS now toying around with splitting the polar vortex sometime in the range D11-D16. Final warming approaches - but will it be dramatic or tame?
 

Appears to be a quick and strong troposphere response in the 06z and 12z runs, but it could be related to the active MJO through P8 instead.

[shaky]

Ukmo corrects itself towards ecm and gfs in regards to that shortwave!takes it south and west of ireland and then further south!dunno what went wrong with it this morning to be fair!!had one of those silly moments!!

[summer blizzard]

Tonight’s Euro less settled days 7-10.

[Frosty.]

That’s a preety good ECM 0z operational if you are hoping for further unseasonable warmth!

 

[mb018538]

ECM this morning looks even warmer than what we’re currently experiencing! GFS has lost the plot (see ensembles, miles out of line). Looks like staying warm on the whole. A little bit of light rain around, but staying dry the majority of the time.

[johnholmes]

I'm unable to access-EC-GFS 500 mb charts on the usual site I post in here, the page simply shows blank. Can anyone point me to another site where they are being output.

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

That’s a preety good ECM 0z operational if you are hoping for further unseasonable warmth!

 

hopefully that is the theme for now and summer,but we got to have some storms popping in and out as well 

[mountain shadow]

What's the odds that this lovely weather continues for the two months of lock down and then as soon as we can go back outside, the heavens open?

[Methuselah]

Early next week's looking good, according to the GFS 06Z!

    

[Andy Bown]

36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What's the odds that this lovely weather continues for the two months of lock down and then as soon as we can go back outside, the heavens open?

I said that a few weeks ago when we looked set for this stunning spell! Would be absolutely Sod’s law, particularly as the settled spell began at the same time as lockdown too.

[Methuselah]

The GFS 06Z stays mostly settled all the way to the 26th:

    

We could already do with some rain, around here!

[mb018538]

40 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I said that a few weeks ago when we looked set for this stunning spell! Would be absolutely Sod’s law, particularly as the settled spell began at the same time as lockdown too.

It’s really narking me. Booked a good chunk of annual leave over Easter and could have done so much in this amazing weather. Never mind, health has to come first!

6z is very messy. Highs and lows roaming around all over the place. I’ll stick with the ECM thanks.

Edited April 10, 2020 by mb018538

[Don]

1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

I said that a few weeks ago when we looked set for this stunning spell! Would be absolutely Sod’s law, particularly as the settled spell began at the same time as lockdown too.

Yes, that would be just typical to have a warm, dry spring and early summer during lockdown, only for it to breakdown, leading to a prolonged unsettled spell once lockdown has been lifted!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A cracking ECM mean I have to say, it keeps it generally dry and warm out to day 10,and perhaps beyond... Less data perhaps bringing a bit of confusement.... Nahhh not me, I'm never confused..

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

I said that a few weeks ago when we looked set for this stunning spell! Would be absolutely Sod’s law, particularly as the settled spell began at the same time as lockdown too.

Or you could look at it the other way- if you have a garden and you're not working/working from home, it's a prime opportunity to spend more time outside.

A lot of people are able to enjoy this sunshine this week when they would normally be stuck inside in an office.

[knocker]

3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I'm unable to access-EC-GFS 500 mb charts on the usual site I post in here, the page simply shows blank. Can anyone point me to another site where they are being output.

I thought the Tropical Titbits site had them but on checking apparently not

If it's of any use today's from WB whilst the search goes on

[Andy Bown]

32 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Or you could look at it the other way- if you have a garden and you're not working/working from home, it's a prime opportunity to spend more time outside.

A lot of people are able to enjoy this sunshine this week when they would normally be stuck inside in an office.

I totally agree. We are spending ages in the garden. But we would have done 5 or 6 days out so far plus my outdoor work which has had to cease would have thrived.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Hope all are keeping well.

Both the GFS 06Z OP and Control get to an E'ly in FI and indeed hot for the first time the OP is quite keen on the E'ly setting in rather sooner. As the next HP cell weakens east, the trough to the south fills the gap by the end of next week with quite a thundery evolution I would think before the HP returns to the north and NE and the E'ly sets up.

Control gets there by a slightly different route and would end rather colder but as you'd expect at this time of year the journey past mid month has both its warmer and colder alternatives. Coldies can salivate over P18 while P11 looks on the warm side of decent in a fortnight.

ECM certainly wasn't interested in any kind of E'ly this morning but GEM had developed a warm but unstable SE'ly by T+240 in its 00Z OP.

Also worth noting the final warming which Singularity referenced the other day and now shows up strongly in 06Z FI. It's this which often provokes the rapid tropospheric response which produces a sharp colder outlook in early May (the Buchan cold spell which is often a potent N'ly supported by strong heights over Greenland).

I still think we will see, quite apart from the coming Sunday/Monday, another sharp colder interlude though whether that's later this month or early May remains to be seen.

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

I thought the Tropical Titbits site had them but on checking apparently not

If it's of any use today's from WB whilst the search goes on

I can use those until perhaps the usual returns so thank you for them

[Methuselah]

GFS is nae bad, at Day 10!