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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Just saw the latest GFS run... holy moley!!! 😮

It’s a big outlier. ECM is better tonight - hiccup over Easter, but it quickly turns settled and warmer through the week. 

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On 24/03/2020 at 17:04, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean now down at -10c for EA.

Interestingly the operational has the -10c isotherm over the SE for 72 hours with plenty of streamers!

14A2706F-D1E5-4ADC-AFFB-FE77F82D8CB1.thumb.jpeg.6f5a57dd3246c1aeae1a111f94b288d2.jpeg

Are we really still chasing cold and snow into April with little or no chance of it happening? Come on peeps give it up! I love cold and snow but let’s just let it go until autumn cos it ain’t gonna happen lol 

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35 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Are we really still chasing cold and snow into April with little or no chance of it happening? Come on peeps give it up! I love cold and snow but let’s just let it go until autumn cos it ain’t gonna happen lol 

Lol check the date that he posted that! Way back  to the 24th March so no I’d say pretty much all are searching for something warm now. Well I no I am and most of this week is looking pretty nice I’d say

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35 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Are we really still chasing cold and snow into April with little or no chance of it happening? Come on peeps give it up! I love cold and snow but let’s just let it go until autumn cos it ain’t gonna happen lol 

Look at the date of your quoted post.  Steve posted that on 24th March for 30th March model run..  we are now 6th April.  Please check date of posts before quoting them 

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Well, I for one am nae looking for cold or snow 🤫...Here's the GFS 00Z's take, for Thursday!

h500slp.png  So, no complaints from yours truly!:yahoo::clapping:

And I'm off for a vitamin D top-up!:oldgood:

Edited by General Cluster
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Still lots of problems with the evolution post Easter. Some more slightly unsettled runs appearing, but with global patterns as they are it doesn’t appear that full blown unsettled weather will be returning. You can still get favourable patterns that don’t quite work out after all. Pretty galling to see the MJO forecast to go through 7/8/1 too. Sod’s law.

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Good afternoon, peoplies...today was a stonker, indeed: 85F in the polytunnel; 63F outside, and wall-to-wall sunshine!👨🏾‍🌾

And here's Thursday's GFS 12Z offering...Yet another snorter? Very likely YES!:clapping::yahoo::drinks:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.pngimage.png.3916e6045ccf916c4de87f4213601c34.png

 

 

Edited by General Cluster
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Certainly wouldn't mind this! 🙂

h500slp (28).png

h500slp (29).png

h500slp (30).png😝

Edited by Zak M
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Afternoon all 🙂

An early glance at the 12Z output suggests we are looking at synoptic evolutions that we often see at this time of year as the winter PV weakens. 

HP is able to build north as pressure drops over Iberia and the Med basin - something we often see in late spring/early summer.

GFS keeps the HP close to the British Isles despite an attempt at retrogression in far FI

The question will be how the European trough develops from mid month as to whether it influences the weather in the far south but with HP centred over to just to the north, it will be fine for many away from southern and eastern parts and as we often see in such a set up it can become quite warm in the far NW - often, late April/early May is the best weather of the year in the NW Highlands and Hebrides.

GFS 12Z Control shows what can happen if we do get retrogression, the trough drops into Scandinavia and we get a potent N'ly - again, not unusual for a final burst of cold at this time and this is a recognised Buchan cold spell and it's a classic set up with -4 to -8 850s coming down from the north and north east. Would that be enough for snow for the mountains ? I think so.

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I don't think this is what even the most fervent of coldies would want to see arriving in the last 3rd of April... 

gfsnh-0-318.png gfs-1-342.png

How different it would have been if it'd been showing 2 or 3 months ago. 

Edited by Ravelin
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GFS has become obsessed with building a big Greenland high by day 10 leading to a lengthy chilly spell... but ECM’s having none of it and if anything looks set up for yet more warm weather going forward from day 10.

Seemingly two very different interpretations of how the patterns will respond to the MJO crossing the 7-8 phases this week. Perhaps down to how much resilience is given to the tropospheric component to the polar vortex.

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22 minutes ago, Singularity said:

GFS has become obsessed with building a big Greenland high by day 10 leading to a lengthy chilly spell... but ECM’s having none of it and if anything looks set up for yet more warm weather going forward from day 10.

Seemingly two very different interpretations of how the patterns will respond to the MJO crossing the 7-8 phases this week. Perhaps down to how much resilience is given to the tropospheric component to the polar vortex.

GFS is a cold outlier this morning, and the ECM at day 10 is a warm outlier. The reality is usually somewhere between the two. Hopefully not the GFS route. No Greenland highs in mid April thank you, save that for November to March.

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22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is a cold outlier this morning, and the ECM at day 10 is a warm outlier. The reality is usually somewhere between the two. Hopefully not the GFS route. No Greenland highs in mid April thank you, save that for November to March.

And, anyway, the trusty GFS has major problems when predicting cold spells. A good thing in summer, not so good in winter...?:oldlaugh:

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

And, anyway, the trusty GFS has major problems when predicting cold spells. A good thing in summer, not so good in winter...?:oldlaugh:

Well then, peeps...COVID-19 permitting, it'll be another stonking day on the farm, tomorrow...Ooh aargh!:yahoo:👨🏾‍🌾

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Just hope that yesterday's sunburn-induced minor discomfiture has eased by then!:oldlaugh:

PS: Bugger: I've just quoted myself!:oops:

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Bizarre ECM.. so basically we have some fine weather over the next few days, and warm. Towards the weekend there will be some showers around, and generally cooler by Sunday. But still a fair amount of dry conditions around, and dare I say it.. Usable. Early next week we see cooler conditions in place but a fair amount of dry conditions too.. Now just look at that cold air mass to the NE, it getting close.... But fear not, as 24hrs later it does its usually detour to the middle East 😂 And by day 10 we have a very warm plume of air approaching the South.. OK that's enough confusement from me... Enjoy your days, and stay safe. 

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All models showing high pressure moving back in after the Easter hiccup. Warming up for a while during the week before it potentially turns colder from the north. That’s a long way off at the moment however. See what ecm says.

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