Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I minght give the model watching a rest after today. Getting a bit fatigued with it lol

[Guest]

I said it last week but we could really do with some tropical activity to plough into the Atlantic and add some energy and move the high pressure to west about a bit!

[Zak M]

Looks like an outlier to me.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks like an outlier to me.

Interesting, its not really from the uppers perspective until towards the end, even then its not out on its own. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Guest

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Interesting, its not really from the uppers perspective until towards the end, even then its not out on its own. 

The uppers are irrelevant really - pressure is much more important! Low pressure like the GFS op will be rank whatever the uppers are.

[Uncle_Barty]

39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It sure is, via the Icelandic weather site!

Http://brunnur.vedur.is

kort > ec-ens > then choose appropriate date. Those charts are in the scenarios links at the bottom of each page. Available at around 1135am in the morning for the 00z.

Thank you kind sir.

Far more useful than the mean chart  which is next to useless.

Tried to put it through Google Translate in the hope of making it easier to understand properly, though I think I have the gist of it.

[Zak M]

Speaking of the 12z GFS ens, p9 looks like an absolute beauty

   

[Frosty.]

Well, looking at the GEFS 12z mean nobody can tell me there isn’t improvement next week because compared to the vile Friday & coming weekend there clearly is!!..and further ahead to the middle of the month and beyond there is potential for very warm or even hot conditions despite the fact that Exeter say most of June will struggle to reach average!!..so, it will be interesting to see what actually does happen but I’m hopeful that the second half will become more summery again!

 

Edited June 3, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

12Z op not really an outlier; temperature-wise it's nae all that far from the mean...Och well, more runs needed!

    

    

Looks like Mr Data's June enigma will survive for another year?

[Downburst]

12z ECM offering more ridging by Sunday than previously. A bit flabby mind you. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

144hrs on ECM.. not bad.. 

Liking 168...we are working overtime on the laptop tonight to bring you the latest folks..

Edited June 3, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

Good ECM at T144:

Particularly further north. Just adding the others for comparison:

I think UKMO pick at this timeframe, it is less troughy.  GEM develops well later and so should ECM.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Good ECM at T144:

Particularly further north. 

Doesn’t look too bad at day 5. Upper trough still there, but filling in situ with slp around 1020mb you wouldn’t expect too much rain by that stage.

[swfc]

Phew,after the sunniest April may on record I'm staggered by the negativity for the first half of June!! Yet again it seems folk expect a totally dry sumner etc .temperate climate does equate to at least some unsettled weather even in early summer?

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Doesn’t look too bad at day 5. Upper trough still there, but filling in situ with slp around 1020mb you wouldn’t expect too much rain by that stage.

Yes, T168 and you wouldn't know what the fuss was about:

Edited June 3, 2020 by Mike Poole
Wrong chart!

[Zak M]

This chart is good for northern areas!

12z ECM @192

[mb018538]

Rather bizarre ending and very different ECM to this mornings version. These op runs are about as much use as ashtray on a motorbike at the moment! The search for answers continues....

[Mike Poole]

JMA a very solid run out to T192:

Much improving picture overall tonight, and even the runs with the trough to the south could provide thunderstorm activity,on the whole it looks a better picture for settled weather further northwest.  

Probably downgrade on the 0z.  There's a reason I don't usually comment on them! other than being asleep!  I would love some proof of this, but in both summer and winter, the 0z seem less prone to blocking than the 12z, and I don't know why, they both verify about the same extent.  Maybe it's because I'm miserable in the mornings, and I view them differently?!  But I'm not sure that explains it at all.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

From this to this in 48 hours on the ECM. Looks an unusual evolution. That’s my lot tonight, see you all for the 00z take on things.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

From this to this in 48 hours on the ECM. Looks an unusual evolution. That’s my lot tonight, see you all for the 00z take on things.

Yes, I confess I didn't look at the last chart, that looks like complete nonsense...NH view might help here:

Actually, still think it looks odd.

[johnholmes]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

From this to this in 48 hours on the ECM. Looks an unusual evolution. That’s my lot tonight, see you all for the 00z take on things.

But there is 48 hours between. You did not show the one between, showing that gives a better idea of why the model shows its version. Who knows at 8-10 days out but to me its overall sequence is acceptable from a meteorological view. Just my idea.

Also the end result is not that different to GFS. Take a look at the jet stream at 168-192 then follow it from there to 240. It is the jet causing the model to show what it suggests may happen. So the two long term synoptic models show a similar  result. It will be interesting to see the 12 Z run tomorrow to see if either model persists with a similar pattern.

Fun trying to work out why models rollow certain ideas at times.

Edited June 3, 2020 by johnholmes

[Country Boy]

Forum Team...it's time to move on..the forum is  Heading In  To April.

We are now into June,  is it time to change...thanks

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Rather bizarre ending and very different ECM to this mornings version. These op runs are about as much use as ashtray on a motorbike at the moment! The search for answers continues....

Looks very similar to Gfs - large trough near U.K. sandwiched either side by blocking highs so it’s not really bizarre. 

[Djdazzle]

The ECM is a better run overall though. Maybe early improvements will lead to better things on future runs?

As for the nearer term, the trough also seems to be clearing a bit quicker now.

[Polar Maritime]

Please hold off posting, A new thread coming up for the start of Summer.