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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

image.thumb.gif.eb5f3aef20f884930ab7ee44b05f84eb.gif

UKMO 144 not bad at all - upper trough lifting out with a ridge extending from the west.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

That is one deep low ~970mb being modelled which develops on Friday in North Sea sort of floats about not till Sunday morning it is truly off scene, albeit much weaker, very unpleasant windy and showery conditions into weekend will feel very cool.


4309B6F7-FD07-46F6-A35A-E4F64172A7DA.thumb.gif.8fa09a67fe11c04f04e7f577c58fe275.gif927A52DE-1FB8-44E1-B180-8CA040D4BDA7.thumb.gif.82951234cb2a8056d2990fdda8376eb7.gif

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

GFS broadly similar at 144 - it looks like that Icelandic low is going to slide down across the UK at day 6/7....UKMO would perhaps be the same.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Seems like after a weak attempt of high pressure ridging back in around T144 we've got and another low shooting down from the north looking at GFS out to T180. Will it squeezed to the south west sufficiently to advect warmth from the east, will that then again after a day or two open the day for another northerly? GFS 12Z has the second low, deeper and north east, not good!

Edited by Guest
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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted (edited)

GFS is absolutely diabolical - low gets stuck over us - this month may be going downhill very quick.

Although tbf UKMO does look better but we shall see - I would be using the EPS as the best guide at the moment

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

Awful looking model output 6z and 12z. Think its safe to call the first quarter of summer a complete write off and June as a whole is going to be the first wetter than average month since Feb. 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Wow - GFS really is June last year. Surely it can’t be that bad again. I’m betting on an outlier for sure. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Awful looking model output 6z and 12z. Think its safe to call the first quarter of summer a complete write off and June as a whole is going to be the first wetter than average month since Feb. 

Are you being serious here... The first quarter... Or are you looking for a reaction? The UKMO looks a very good run, and continues in a similar vain to the 0z run. You do realize a quarter equates to 4 weeks don't you!! Is there a crystal ball involved here. 

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Awful looking model output 6z and 12z. Think its safe to call the first quarter of summer a complete write off and June as a whole is going to be the first wetter than average month since Feb. 

If the output carries on this way June will be the first month of the year with a below average CET. 

The GFS beyond T180hrs goes from bad to worse with the UK stuck under the trough which is pinned in by blocking heights both east and west - this is scenario I'm most worried about!

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

That low on the gfs 12z is middle of next week. It's still in the medium to long term for me. FI IS WAY SHORTER THAN PEOPLE REALISE. last week gfs was showing sunny and warm for here today but had light rain all day. And 11oC.so.im taking it with a pinch of salt. Let's all chill a little. June is over comments its not pre-school. 

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted
Just now, Alderc said:

If the output carries on this way June will be the first month of the year with a below average CET. 

The GFS beyond T180hrs goes from bad to worse with the UK stuck under the trough which is pinned in by blocking heights both east and west - this is scenario I'm most worried about!

Agreed and its not the gfs blowing up the Atlantic - it actually is a realistic progression. Maybe its an outlier we will have to see - I definitely wouldn't bet on the high with lp under in Europe set up to bring us heat - odds on it won't work

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Are you being serious here... The first quarter... Or are you looking for a reaction? The UKMO looks a very good run, and continues in a similar vain to the 0z run. You do realize a quarter equates to 4 weeks don't you!! Is there a crystal ball involved here. 

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

But its not a good run, the Icelandic low quickly dives down back over the UK. 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
Just now, Alderc said:

But its not a good run, the Icelandic low quickly dives down back over the UK. 

Gfs over plays everything even warm weather. If it still shows at weekend then il talk about it. 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Not worth getting too worried about at the moment. GFS is the 4th best model these days remember (behind ecm, ukmo and gem). If those 3 jump ship I’ll take notice.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

D6B27F3C-55F7-4574-AFBD-0A0319078000.thumb.png.41298103b334003c22ae23140e4d77ef.png59583760-8115-4BCD-83CC-F96A74C4A7F0.thumb.gif.c51d65389768c2a3e724c999d3cdeaad.gif

UKMO vs GEM 120 - trough gone on ukmo, still there on gem. FI is 5 days away at present.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

D6B27F3C-55F7-4574-AFBD-0A0319078000.thumb.png.41298103b334003c22ae23140e4d77ef.png59583760-8115-4BCD-83CC-F96A74C4A7F0.thumb.gif.c51d65389768c2a3e724c999d3cdeaad.gif

UKMO vs GEM 120 - trough gone on ukmo, still there on gem. FI is 5 days away at present.

UKMO odd one out though with no Icelandic low that seems the catalyst for more unfortunate events.

actually ignore what I said got them muddled..

Edited by Daniel*
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

gfs-0-144.png UW144-21.GIF?03-18

Interesting that UKMO keeps that low by Svalbard and has the Atlantic jet aligned more zonally, compared to GFS. The low near the UK would most likely head east, not southeast, for Wednesday.

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Uncle_Barty Enthusiast

Uncle_Barty

Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
Posted
6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

4C33905E-E445-4806-A452-9A93F415C172.thumb.png.7676e3b4fbc3bb836f8bffc833c44876.png

Looks like the sinking low is the preferred option. Could drag in some warmer air around the low as some runs are now showing. Depends how far it can sink away from the UK as to what we’d get here.

Where does one get that chart? is it generally available?

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
9 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Where does one get that chart? is it generally available?

It sure is, via the Icelandic weather site!

Http://brunnur.vedur.is

kort > ec-ens > then choose appropriate date. Those charts are in the scenarios links at the bottom of each page. Available at around 1135am in the morning for the 00z.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The GEM is looking very decent, and rather excellent for our good Scottish friends... Come on GEM keep up the standard. 

gem-0-144.png

gem-0-162.png

gem-0-168.png

gem-0-174.png

CrispEnchantingCapybara-small.gif

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well, hasn't today's GFS 12Z op thrown us a curve ball? But, after the last few runs, there was really only one way it could go!:oldlaugh:

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
6 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

The GEM is looking very decent, and rather excellent for our good Scottish friends... Come on GEM keep up the standard. 

gem-0-144.png

gem-0-162.png

gem-0-168.png

gem-0-174.png

CrispEnchantingCapybara-small.gif

Pick of the bunch again tonight Matt. Trend setter or rogue outlier? 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pick of the bunch again tonight Matt. Trend setter or rogue outlier? 

Its a petty we can't see out to day 10 with the UKMO mate, will be more assured if we get a decent ECM run also. ☀️

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 12z mean seems better than the op in the medium term.

The mean is better 11-14th because its being dragged up by 3 or 4 of the ensembles which still go for a very warm easterly. Conversely there are several ensembles that believe it or not are worse than the Ops run, 

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