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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Retrogression is a two-side coin: a wee bit, and we're open to a nasty northerly; a big bit, and the backdoor to European warmth opens?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Those charts illustrate the fears of Alderc and the Bluearmy post last night. HP situated N Atlantic and Russia with a weak trough in our locale.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Funny world this model watching: yesterday, I was willing that HP in the Atlantic to nudge back in. Now I’m thinking if it retrogressed further, we may be in for some continental heat. Very high risk though!

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46 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I quite like the parched look! Up to a point, of course.

Same I love it, add visuals to the hot spells. 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
2 hours ago, Alderc said:

The output again deteriorates, some utterly dreadful weather coming on Saturday as we revert to mid March, low teens 40-60kmh gusts, no thanks. 

Single digits in my area. But the funny bit is how I am made out to look like a silly one after posting a chart last week showing temps in single digits because it was in FI... And what did people say?  "Ive more chance becoming prime minister than this chart verifying" they said.   "This chart wont verify its in lala land"  they said.....

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, 38.7°C said:

Single digits in my area. But the funny bit is how I am made out to look like a silly one after posting a chart last week showing temps in single digits because it was in FI... And what did people say?  "Ive more chance becoming prime minister than this chart verifying" they said.   "This chart wont verify its in lala land"  they said.....

You got lucky. Simple! Try doing it in winter when snow is predicted!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Djdazzle said:

You got lucky. Simple! Try doing it in winter when snow is predicted!

Not that it's verified yet? But, hey, it is Manchester!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I’d be very surprised it there were single digit maxes anywhere apart from Scotland. I presume these are GFS temps, in which case say no more!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

I will take this from the 12z ECM @144

Could HP start to build back in? We will see...

ECM1-144.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

It’s gonna be a wild Saturday. ECM below. 

064C3FC5-1087-463C-9745-960A303947A0.png

D2797BD2-565C-4883-9A34-79B5F2075277.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Late to the party but at 192 and 216...

588661142_ECM1-192(1).thumb.gif.0c76328073757b4d499e44af00d235ce.gifECM1-216.thumb.gif.52bf131e1a5ed534d6a4306711363607.gif

high pressure building everywhere but with that pesky trough over the UK,could be some heavy showers/thunderstorms about.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not that it's verified yet? But, hey, it is Manchester!:oldlaugh:

The same Manchester that has had 7 days in a row above 24C?? 

No way we will be in single figures here even in the worst case scenario.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
38 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Single digits in my area. But the funny bit is how I am made out to look like a silly one after posting a chart last week showing temps in single digits because it was in FI... And what did people say?  "Ive more chance becoming prime minister than this chart verifying" they said.   "This chart wont verify its in lala land"  they said.....

It hasn't happened yet?? It may well be a miserable day on Saturday but even the GFS is predicting Manchester to get into double figures.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM isn’t that bad - but there is an upper level trough stuck over part of the UK for over a week. Too far out at this range to say what that would entail - showers or longer spells of rain. Which I don’t know. This chart below probably didn’t look like it’d lead to 75mm of rain falling in 48 hours in Lincolnshire last year at face value!

image.thumb.gif.750e96c709f61663c2487e821f2d9f77.gif

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Beautiful:clap:

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.9dc2697dc9420fb00c8aa9e21332924e.gifECM0-240.thumb.gif.7bacd8b9ecdd348e03ca4521e0484e04.gif

warming up by day ten with an ongoing risk of some cracking storms,not overly hot but it will feel humid where the sun breaks out...

it's day ten though

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

@Allseasons-si It is always day ten for storms nowadays! 

Let’s be honest...it’s not great is it? 

@Scorcher I would get the Winter hat and gloves out for the weekend on current output. (12 to 14C max down there) 

Latest ECM:

anim_mgw2.gif
anim_qdc7.gif

So below average to start and then average towards the end - West will be best.

If the ECM run went on a further few frames...that would most likely set us up for a return to Summer warmth by mid month. 

Latest Met Office monthly outlook is a proper stinker for any hot weather - cheers for that @Summer Sun 

Call me old fashioned but we are now in Meteorological Summer...and I want loads of sunshine, warmth and convective weather in between! Cool, cloudy, windy and bog standard rainfall can sod off until September!  

Have a good night everyone! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

On and on, the story goes

Where the pressure systems stop

Nobody knows...

Well, the models do at least hazard a guess each day - the last day of the current fine spell draws to its conclusion so how and where (and above all when) will new stability occur?

Tonight's 12Z output at T+240:

ECM1-216.GIF?02-0gem-0-240.png?12gfs-0-234.png?12gens-0-1-240.png

That's the usual suspects - ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control

The immediate view is they are all very different suggesting the only clear thing is a lack of clarity. ECM is the most positive for the British Isles overall with much of the north and west under the influence of a ridge but the south and east remain close to the European trough and that's fairly pronounced on both GFS OP and Control though the former isn't bad for the Hebrides. GEM looks on its own tonight with the Azores HP in completely the wrong place and orientation ad a deepening LP to the NW set to enhance unsettled conditions for most with wind and rain spreading from the NW.

Further into GI, GFS OP keeps a very slack pattern in place which isn;t unusual in summer. A broad but shallow trough to the east and south against weak heights trying to build in from the SW. Not, as it has to be said, exciting warm with the heat to the SE generally at bay.

Control's evolution is rather different but hints at something more summery. After drenching the British Isles, the Iberian LP withdraws slowly west and allows a weak ridge to develop to our east which suggests a possible plume around midsummer or just after. All a very long way off but a possible escape route back to heat for those who want that.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I’d pay no real attention to the met office long range month ahead forecasts to be honest....go back through the appropriate thread and look at the updates from mid to late May. All of them go for a warm and settled June. They now say the opposite - cool, unsettled. No real use to anyone, and re-enforcing the chaotic nature of weather forecasting! What a nightmare.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Marco Petanga tweeting about HP moving back in next week,  moreso for the north.

That Mr Frost is going to nick all the best weather again haha!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mb018538 said:

I’d pay no real attention to the met office long range month ahead forecasts to be honest....go back through the appropriate thread and look at the updates from mid to late May. All of them go for a warm and settled June. They now say the opposite - cool, unsettled. No real use to anyone, and re-enforcing the chaotic nature of weather forecasting! What a nightmare.

I just posted about a tweet by meto forecaster ...

Hints of HP moving back in next werk,perhaps.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I’d pay no real attention to the met office long range month ahead forecasts to be honest....go back through the appropriate thread and look at the updates from mid to late May. All of them go for a warm and settled June. They now say the opposite - cool, unsettled. No real use to anyone, and re-enforcing the chaotic nature of weather forecasting! What a nightmare.

I think the issue there is that it doesn't take into account the 12z runs, which are much more positive than the previous few suites.   Not saying which are right, but more recent runs should carry more weight, and the 12z runs are a significant step towards a high pressure dominated regime by mid month.

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