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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Here comes the June monsoon, ️only a matter of time before we see a return of the westerlies ??‍♂️ ....

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Posted (edited)

I think this unsettled spell is losing its legs... Infact it's an improving situation on the mean.. Much better.. ??

Edit.. Tim Bland that operational chart is not backed up by the mean.. I see know signs of Wstlys anytime soon. 

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Edited by MATT☀️
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Think so too Matt, but ECM mean is far from hot and dry..and neither cut and dried either ..I think the op runs and ensembles might eventually show the right way forward by the weekend, for now there is too much scatter at early times on all model suites....

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think so too Matt, but ECM mean is far from hot and dry..and neither cut and dried either ..I think the op runs and ensembles might eventually show the right way forward by the weekend, for now there is too much scatter at early times on all model suites....

Its not Hot by any means Mike, but it looks to me like a step in the right direction, I wouldn't be surprised to be seeing things looking much more cosha come the weeks end. It's also nice to be seeing Heights being kept away from the Greenland area, I'm definitely feeling a lot of dry and warm conditions this time around mate... Not sure about excessive heat, but very warm at times for sure. ?

Edited by MATT☀️
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46 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

At least we didn’t see any silly ‘oh look it’s the June Monsoon’ comments about the ecm 240 chart. Hate that phrase with a passion. It’s not even a monsoon.

You spoke too soon ???

27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here comes the June monsoon, ️only a matter of time before we see a return of the westerlies ??‍♂️ ....

09E000B0-BAB4-45C4-993D-389CDF31762C.gif

 

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ECM completes the full house of absolute tosh from the 12z’s. Lots optimism here about what might happen in 8-15days but in reality every single model shows either a trough over the U.K. or worryingly the Atlantic starting to sneak over the top of the Azores high potentially opening the door to a run of lows from the north west. 

Again I think the means on the model output is not representative of likely solutions and often is combination of poor solutions averaging out to give something slightly more palatable.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM completes the full house of absolute tosh from the 12z’s. Lots optimism here about what might happen in 8-15days but in reality every single model shows either a trough over the U.K. or worryingly the Atlantic starting to sneak over the top of the Azores high potentially opening the door to a run of lows from the north west. 

Again I think the means on the model output is not representative of likely solutions and often is combination of poor solutions averaging out to give something slightly more palatable.

Lots of pessimism here too....is it ok to lay a bet, by 15 June the scorching weather will be back, I'll give you 2:1 against, my bet is a pint in your nearest Wetherspoons, the Moon in the Square I think?  You owe me a half if you lose.  

Edit:Maybe not the best time for that, but surely the current output isn't an apocalypse?   It's a blip, maybe a slightly elongated one, but a blip nonetheless. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Evening all as promised this morning will an update on the ens members after every run when come out. This is my thoughts on the 12z gfs ens. This morning more than of members were showing a warm up after about 6 days from midweek. Which brings to about the 10th of May. On today 12z we still have 2 warm days shown. Today and tomorrow. Then a cool down of about 6/7 days. The op is not among the warmer members so would call it an outlier but nearly all the rest of the members go for a warm. Temps hitting mid twenties by 3 days from the end of the run. Remember this is for Yorkshire so hotter in the south. So I'm still confident of something warmer later next week. Let's see what 18z say later. Chart below. Thanks

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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Here comes the June monsoon, ️only a matter of time before we see a return of the westerlies ??‍♂️ ....

09E000B0-BAB4-45C4-993D-389CDF31762C.gif

This may not be popular, but the ECM op route might be the best way to get back to summer faster. Better heights over Europe may mean Atlantic lows zip past us to the north rather than dive through us, which is the problem we'd have on the mean chart. Of course there's a slim chart of pulling in a warm easterly on the back of a low over Europe, but that is far from the safest way to return to summer. 

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1 hour ago, Alderc said:

ECM completes the full house of absolute tosh from the 12z’s. Lots optimism here about what might happen in 8-15days but in reality every single model shows either a trough over the U.K. or worryingly the Atlantic starting to sneak over the top of the Azores high potentially opening the door to a run of lows from the north west. 

Again I think the means on the model output is not representative of likely solutions and often is combination of poor solutions averaging out to give something slightly more palatable.

If you insist on basing everything on a few operational runs, then there’s no hope! The runs are not great, I agree. But there are longer term positive signals.

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1 hour ago, MATT☀️ said:

 

 

 

Sorry for copying the above.

Models today not painting a brilliant picture in the short-medium term, distinctly cool is the most notable feature, with cold uppers invading the UK from a long way north (arctic), will come as a bit of shock compared to recent days. Early June can deliver chilly weather still especially under northerly airstreams, the arctic hasn't properly warmed up yet.

The other major feature is the return of precipitation, a hit and miss affair for some, could be quite showery and weak in places more so the SE, other spots may see some decent totals before the week is out.

The northerly has been sharpened and its longevity prolonged - low pressure developing to the NE, becoming slow moving and this has the effect of sending azores heights westwards, trough then digging deep into central europe which locks it in place, and crucially allows low heights to move in from the NW making a beeline for the UK - a cool unsettled pattern.

As others have said there is an escape route back to something resembling summer, this could happen if low heights to the NW deepen signficantly enough to pull the jet into a more favourable W-E alignment, this would scrub out the low heights to our SE and allow the azores high to build back in to southern parts at least. Conversely shallower features won't allow this, as shown by GFS and the negatively titled aligned trough would remain in situ for a bit longer.

 

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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

If you insist on basing everything on a few operational runs, then there’s no hope! The runs are not great, I agree. But there are longer term positive signals.

I think its fair to say that from this week summer will be on hold just as it begins.  Its likely that it will probably be at least eight days to two weeks before we start seeing conditions improving as we all know troughing like this can hang around for days/weeks. 
Whether the HP cell in the Atlantic will continue to retrogress further West opening the door to further unsettled weather or if it can shift back East remains unseen.  

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Morning time for the 18z ensembles discussion. Re-cape from the 12z run. As I said earlier. A cool down for 6/7 days were showing after yesterdays and todays(Mondays) very warm sunny weather. After the cooler spell late this week all ens apart from the main gfs run we're showing a warm up later next week. OK onto the 18z ens break down(still good news) the op as come on board slightly. Bringing warmer temps after the cool down later this week which is copied by about 3/4 of the other members. So the forecast from me is a very warm/day tomorrow followed by 6 or 7 ish cooler days. Then (trend) of a warm up again after. Remember the warm up is shown in the long term FI. The 6z/12z/18z have all now today shown some kind of warm up now after the cooler spell. Last point regarding the ECM don't worry too much as most of the time it's last 6/7/8/9/10 change very frequently to me. I would expect it to at least show signs of the warm within the next few days. That's only if the ens are reading the signs correctly. Next update tomorrow morning after the 6z.0z too early for me ha ha. Night all 18z ens chart below. 

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Some of the charts on GFS this morning would be an absolute snow fest if it was Winter.

A trough sat to our S/SE and a keen eastery ...

 

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The eps and the clusters have signalled this less settled period now about to start very well ........and the pretty consistent message from them is don't expect it to be a blip ........ the period beyond mid month is not set in stone but the Azores ridge appears to now be happy ebbing and flowing to our west rather than across us and with high heights over nw Russia, the trough seems set on nw Europe 
 

I hope mike is right but I would be taking his 2/1 .......

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27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps and the clusters have signalled this less settled period now about to start very well ........and the pretty consistent message from them is don't expect it to be a blip ........ the period beyond mid month is not set in stone but the Azores ridge appears to now be happy ebbing and flowing to our west rather than across us and with high heights over nw Russia, the trough seems set on nw Europe 
 

I hope mike is right but I would be taking his 2/1 .......

Right on cue EC building heights pretty much the last place summer lovers would want them, ie Greenland.

Thinking of the positives  , less packed beaches is a stand out..

?

 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Well if this is what mid June looks like, I won’t mind the cooler more unsettled spell on the way..scorching anticyclonic second half of June it is then!!!!????

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Just read Mike Poole’s comment further up page..The Gfs 0z op agrees with him!?

Edited by JON SNOW
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I’m a bit amazed by how much the low develops yet then retrograde slightly southwest in the next 5 days (very unusual)... but regardless of this, if you step back and look at the broad picture around the UK, you can then see high pressure extending eastward more and more in the 5-10 day range.

Seems we may have to wait for the low to clear southward instead of eastward but the inertia is there toward a return to dry and warmer weather during week 3 of June. No reason visible to stop expecting that - AAM rise still forecast. Hopefully the classic tropical cycle will pull through for us - a lot rides on that AAM recovery upward.

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Some models in week two toying with the two amplified ridges bridging over the top of the weakening U.K. trough. It wouldn’t be a bad solution with a likely spell of very warm weather, rain most likely in the south.

Trouble is that the evolution isn’t one you see often and subsequently there are doubts that this would pan out in the way shown on the ECM.

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Jeez....models look bad today. Low pressure really sticking around by the looks of things, so plenty of rain on the way.

GFS ppn charts are never the most accurate, but gives a general direction of travel - could be a months rain in the next 10 days in places:

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