Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Griff]

21 minutes ago, shaky said:

Lets see what icon 18z shows at 120 hours!!

Looks a lot like ukmo 12z

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looks a lot like ukmo 12z

Fantastic 18z icon!!!nothing other than a direct hit!!!keep me.up to date with the 18z gfs buddy!!hopefully a move towards ukmo and icon at the very least!!

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looks a lot like ukmo 12z

Yes well spotted, you beat me to it! Maybe ICON and UKMO have extra data that the others are missing, will gfs now have to play catch up?

[Don]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes well spotted, you beat me to it! Maybe ICON and UKMO have extra data that the others are missing, will gfs now have to play catch up?

It's good that the UKMO is on board, rather than the other way around with the GFS showing a potential northerly and the UKMO saying no!!

[snowray]

18z still going for that Spanish plume, could hit 20c in places there.

 

[Zak M]

Classic GFS 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Classic GFS 

There does seem to be a trend developing for a decent Easter this year.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Don said:

There does seem to be a trend developing for a decent Easter this year.

That'll be no use though for people of that weather persuasion this year.

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That'll be no use though for people of that weather persuasion this year.

I think you'll find quite a few of us have gardens we can sit outside in. Far more useful than wet snow surely. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Radiating Dendrite

[Griff]

Make of it what you will 

[Griff]

Ukmo above certainly appears more towards the GFS and the Icon somewhat so

[Griff]

14 hours ago, Griff said:

Today has been a cold shock to the system compared to the glorious sunshine all week. I get the feeling we're in for some middle ground cold damp gloomy weather, neither satisfying proper cold or early warmth seekers

Still this

[mb018538]

Today just proves yet again what a waste cold uppers are this late in the year. -10 uppers still giving 7c maxima and nothing of note. Bring on the warmth shown on the gfs please.

[Methuselah]

Morning peeps...

Well, it looks as if (touch wood!) and according to the ever-reliable GFS 00Z, that next Saturday could well see the southerly limit of the cold air:

    

Before everything then gets pushed back, northwards:

    

Ushering-in a period of sustained improvement:

    

    

Best stop there, methinks!

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

Make of it what you will 

A higgledy piggledy plum duff flump? 

[SLEETY]

Not a surprise that the models showing the coldest solutions are looking like not being correct now,regarding the next cold plunge from the North.

Typical how the less cold scenarios nearly always win out in the end 

[shaky]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

Ukmo above certainly appears more towards the GFS and the Icon somewhat so

Whats icon 06z showing?i mentioned it 48 hours ago once you get a west based nao trend its very hard to correct it back east and i had a feeling the gfs and ecm was most probably gona be right which is why i wrote this northerly off a couple of days ago!!its all down to that little area of lower heights that branches off the main vortex to our north east!!it pushes west towards southern greenland and conjoins with the low coming out of the states which then brings the west based nao into play!!if that had not happened then we would be looking looking at an almighty cold spell and northerly for the start of april!!

[snowray]

Here we go again!

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here we go again!

Such a tease 

[snowray]

Lets see what the gfs makes of it now?

 

[Griff]

46 minutes ago, snowray said:

Lets see what the gfs makes of it now?

 

GFS isn't wavering. No change. 

Crikey it might even count down to 0, and get something right for once. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Griff

[SLEETY]

This is ridiculous, icon going for it again  and colder air getting in earlier than the midnight run and gfs still not interested, as some sort of low form out of greenland to spoil it, something about northerly outbreaks that not any model can get to grips with until about 48 hours out, useless, including ukmo now that has decided to jump ship after being solid for it happening. 

Perhaps all output should be capped at t120 hours!! 

[Methuselah]

Then again, considering the time-of-year, and the probable reduction in both aircraft and balloon data, it's maybe not so 'ridiculous' after all?

Though, that having been said, next weekend still looks like being a turning point?

    

Still looking good at T+297!

    

Edited March 29, 2020 by General Cluster

[BlueHedgehog074]

Models showing a further few chilly and generally dry days to come, particularly over Western UK, with a circular area of High Pressure holding out to the West of the UK in the Atlantic:

 

Few further wintry showers likely to continue towards some Southern and Eastern areas before High Pressure towards mid-week slips a little towards the West-South-West of the UK thanks to Low Pressure over Iceland starts swinging down from the North. This quite possibly introducing cold air - this time from the North-West, especially over Northern UK.

After that, it’s where things get a bit more uncertain. A UK wide Northerly could develop. It may still be just about far enough away not to fully rule out yet. Though perhaps a more likely scenario is to see some High Pressure building over to the South and East of the UK over mainland Europe. This could bring up some warmer air from the South-West or South with a possibility of the Azores Low Pressure and the Low Pressure over North-Eastern UK linking up with each other just to the West of the UK. Although if this link up (if it occurs) happens further East then more areas of the UK could become more influenced by a possible colder Northerly shot next week and be on the West flank of the Low Pressure. Maybe the snow clouds would then gain a stronger force over any rain clouds (An old weather comic from years ago, he hee...)

 

But some warmer weather would be totally fine, if not.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Then again, considering the time-of-year, and the probable reduction in both aircraft and balloon data, it's maybe not so 'ridiculous' after all?

 

 

    

Is that jsts you having a laugh or have any of the main centres made comment about balloon data? Obviously the amount of aircraft reports is going to be hugely reduced.