Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

Very rare for me to post GFS deep FI charts, but here is one to show what is possible:

[Zak M]

This is quite a nice chart from the 06z GFS

   

Well into FI though.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Afternoon all. I still think the northerly is being overplayed and don't think it's a done deal from weekend etc. But if gfs keeps showing this in FI. We could get a very hot continental flow by the 13th onward. As predicted by most long range models/media etc thou not to be named. It may be cooler from mid week onwards. But I don't expect to last very long at all. Enjoy the few days sun with a few chilled ones. No more for me as was bit Friday and arm swelled up so on big antibiotics. Have one for me. Peace and happiness all. Keep safe. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This is quite a nice chart from the 06z GFS

   

Well into FI though.

Hope the trend shows momentum 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

6z ens showing warm up from the 10th onwards. Chart in ascending order thing. More than half in agreement. 

CHart shows 2 very warm days followed by 6 average days. Then the warm up begins. This chart is for South Yorkshire so temps South of that will be higher regards

Edited June 1, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed text

[Man With Beard]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This is quite a nice chart from the 06z GFS

   

Well into FI though.

There's a fair few GFS ensembles going for this (fewer ECM ones), but I'd still consider this to be a "fluke" heatwave if it happened, like finding a needle in a haystack.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

4 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

6z ens showing warm up from the 10th onwards. Chart in ascending order thing. More than half in agreement. 

CHart shows 2 very warm days followed by 6 average days. Then the warm up begins. This chart is for South Yorkshire so temps South of that will be higher regards

Will do a daily update from these on each run from now until day dot. See if we can spot the trend. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

There's a fair few GFS ensembles going for this (fewer ECM ones), but I'd still consider this to be a "fluke" heatwave if it happened, like finding a needle in a haystack.

Agree, although stranger things have happened!

[mb018538]

At least the temperature trend is back towards normal after what looks a cool first third of the month on the whole.

[mb018538]

Longer range ECM doesn’t look too great - all feature a trough close to the UK, probably with the Azores high stuck out west.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, Saturday seems to be the nadir with the most unsettled looking chart and thereafter we see a gradual improvement as per the operational with a filling trough in-situ and pressure slowly rising, indeed the mean @ day 10 looks even better than the op...Baby Steps back to something more settled and warmer further ahead?..fingers crossed!

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Allseasons-Si]

Thanks for that informative post as always Tamara and it's good  to see you posting again(more regularly)

you have a level head and i would suspect everyone else should have one after reading your post's,you have no bias to cold or hot weather and speak the truth

you are valued and appreciated so keep posting

anyway,back to the models:-

a cracking gefs ens suit from the 06z and a step up from yesterday afternoon's

  yesterday's 12z v's this morning's 06z

the gradual incline in temps is more pronounced after the cool blip around the 6th/7th this is where i will be looking to see this gain traction in future runs

here is the table of upper air temps(850's) and as you can see there is quiet a few getting above that +10c mark

animated gefs mean from 192 to 384

could we get a continental waft of warm air with a trough to our S/SW,it's plausible

have a great day everyone and be vigilant

stay safe

C U for now. 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks for that informative post as always Tamara and it's good  to see you posting again(more regularly)

you have a level head and i would suspect everyone else should have one after reading your post,you have no bias to cold or hot weather and speak the truth

you are valued and appreciated so keep posting

anyway,back to the models:-

a cracking gefs ens suit from the 06z and a step up from yesterday afternoon's

  yesterday's 12z v's this morning's 06z

the gradual incline in temps is more pronounced after the cool blip around the 6th/7th this is where i will be looking to see this gain traction in future runs

here is the table of upper air temps and as you can see there is quiet a few getting above that +10c mark

animated gefs mean.

could we get a continental waft of warm air with a trough to our S/SW,it's plausible

have a great day everyone and be vigilant

stay safe

C U for now. 

Gr8 stuff folks.. Perhaps signs of an improvement going on the mean Karl above posted, and top stuff from you as always si.. I think I will wait till the end of the week before getting to involved with how quickly we can get back to settled conditions... And yes Gr8 post from Tams.. She is also a fab person to chat with outside of the weather... Just don't all get private messaging her for advice, she like most as a busy life.. Stay well folks

Edited June 1, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Methuselah]

Good to see that the GFS 06Z is still on track: cooler by Friday, then slowly warming up.

    

    

    

    

    

And the ensembles suggest that, despite there being no continuance of the wall-to-wall sunshine, there is a better chance of us, here in tumbleweed country, seeing some rain.

    

    

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by General Cluster
heat stroke!

[Allseasons-Si]

Firstly the ICON out of the blocks and towards the end of the run a secondary low joins forces with the one over the UK,i would suspect plenty of heavy showers around within the slack flow from the west/SW.

cannot seem to post the animated version(upload failed)

 

[Zak M]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Firstly the ICON out of the blocks and towards the end of the run a secondary low joins forces with the one over the UK,i would suspect plenty of heavy showers around within the slack flow from the west/SW.

cannot seem to post the animated version(upload failed)

 

Right click on the GIF and press save image

Edited June 1, 2020 by Zak M

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Right click on the GIF and press save image

I did and tried to upload a few times,.com.

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I did and tried to upload a few times,.com.

It's not working?

I have just tried it and it still works, perhaps change the file type to .gif if you can.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Good to see that the GFS 12Z is still on track: cooler by Friday, then slowly warming up.

 

 

Don't you mean the 06z Pete 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don't you mean the 06z Pete 

No, he has a crystal ball . . .

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don't you mean the 06z Pete 

Thanks Si...It's been a long day in the sun!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

It's not working?

I have just tried it and it still works, perhaps change the file type to .gif if you can.

Testing...

Nope still not working,i am getting -200 error

i have tried at different fps's too.

[Zak M]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Testing...

Nope still not working,i am getting -200 error

i have tried at different fps's too.

Ohhh sorry I didn't make it clear, I meant right clicking the GIF that I quoted you with

[Allseasons-Si]

Test 2

Yay!!!,i cleared my cache etc,now it works

sorry for this mods,i just wanted to find out what the problem was.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Guest]

Lets hope we don't go down the icon route. The Jet pattern at T180hrs is awful for the UK.