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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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There’s nothing implausible about ECM 12z hopes for something significantly better will likely be seen in a little while. There’s no huge difference with GFS at day 5, you would expect ECM to do better with small synoptic features typically its GFS which overdoes lows, so I think it is interesting the opposite is true here.

A92BC499-8950-470C-A164-E1ADEC798983.thumb.png.ca617e86d750179a98a1093833036582.png59D3AFA0-A271-4DE3-8951-687F87559BAD.thumb.png.62f31288547cf6b60201a552ab34931a.png

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

Posted Images

Here is the problem - throughout D6 to D10, a number of runs refuse to bring the colder air all the way through the UK

graphe0_00_0_0_-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

This doesn't tell the whole story - another ECM ensemble chart for tonight shows that even if you knock out the top 10% of runs (the outliers), you still have runs left with uppers of 7C for London by next Saturday/Sunday. 

Whatever you see past Tuesday is not a done deal. However, if you want guaranteed sun/warmth, Tuesday is presently as far as you can be sure. 

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ICON 18z has flipped to more unsettled next week. Let’s see if the GFS holds out as it was showing the most settled outcome for most of next week.

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Posted (edited)

Gfs 18z holding firm up to 144 hours!!dry and warm for the majority till friday at the very least!!ecm an outlier between days 7 to 9!!northerly all but gone on gfs 18z?

Edited by sheikhy
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Regardless of what the models show, I think (or hope) that high pressure will dominate again from the west and will bring temperatures above average after this 3-4 day period of unsettled and cooler weather. Even a lot of long range forecasts, if not some, are going for a very dry second half of June with high temperatures and blue skies so hopefully it does materialise and give us exactly that!

Speaking of blue skies, I saw this in the blue sky this afternoon (not the best location to view it I know!):

716052910_IMG_20811.thumb.JPG.5bd70aed703d02e83b42da6382fe4edc.JPG

But you can just make it out.

Spring has been exceptional this year. Fingers crossed for a more exceptional June and July with more heat and thunderstorms! ?⛈️☀️

Take care all - stay safe. ?

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Posted (edited)

Hello guys and good evening?

I think the models are all over the place from 120,will this trough drop down from the north over the UK?will it get shunted further east?,i hope so 

latest from cpc shows the hp cell drifting slightly more to our east in the extended but we need these dragging heels to get unhindered from the crack in the pavement as we are still the wrong side of the high with winds still from a relatively cool source

610day_03.thumb.gif.f6abf8039b7dcde00ee4bd52b88cc4c0.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.65e9f412d425dcc424c6c76aa8cf776a.gif

hopefully in a few days that things will change for the better to warmer weather again

it has been a good couple of months weather wise and with this lock-down it has been a very good excuse for some good model talk in here and i feel like one of the big family members and i am glad to take part in here

i started back at work last Tuesday and it was very strange after so long and i felt the sense of discipline towards other work members and visa versa 

we are slowly getting there but we have had a big hit in terms of this virus and i was very scared at one point and there was fear in us all

please still keep safe and don't be complacent,the killer is still out there

sorry for the slight off track but it has been an emotional roller coaster 

on to the 18z,now lets see if we can get this Azures high further west/northwest

C U in a bit.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Regardless of what the models show, I think (or hope) that high pressure will dominate again from the west and will bring temperatures above average after this 3-4 day period of unsettled and cooler weather. Even a lot of long range forecasts, if not some, are going for a very dry second half of June with high temperatures and blue skies so hopefully it does materialise and give us exactly that!

Speaking of blue skies, I saw this in the blue sky this afternoon (not the best location to view it I know!):

716052910_IMG_20811.thumb.JPG.5bd70aed703d02e83b42da6382fe4edc.JPG

But you can just make it out.

Spring has been exceptional this year. Fingers crossed for a more exceptional June and July with more heat and thunderstorms! ?⛈️☀️

Take care all - stay safe. ?

Hey Zak, what you're looking at that there was created right above my house here in st neots!! No idea what it was for but it was amazing! 

Screenshot_20200530-234828_WhatsApp.jpg

Edited by James1979
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Posted (edited)

Can we get a cut off low in Iberia?,that would send warmer or even hotter temps up from the south.

670226687_gfs-0-330(1).thumb.png.c06bc6c3fee1b1a56de1a4fc6a3d3222.pnggfs-1-330.thumb.png.1358a96f2c1b1b8493929352ef350184.png

it's all looking good on the pub  sober run guys?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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We have a good strong hp cell in our vicinity from 192>,the strongest on the entire globe,i just hope that it places it's self favorable that we can benefit from it...

 NH view

anim_qqw3.thumb.gif.63bad42fbc580b53e33ade39e8041cfa.gif

lets hope it stumbles upon some retrogression on it's way in deep fl:oldlaugh: 

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As expected, the GFS pub run is starting to build HP and some warmth after the cold plunge. Perfect!

@James1979 It was quite the sight! My mum took a better photo than me before it dissipated but for some reason I can't seem to edit it into the post.

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ICON brings down a swathe of -4 uppers across a large part of the UK

image.thumb.png.bbf219fcbceb4b71d296f1c6e6af095e.png

Seems to follow the ECM of yesterday somewhat in its latter stages

image.thumb.png.230234f80197537718d8e7d83c151450.png

 

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Posted (edited)

UKMO at 144...

that's some trough

image.thumb.png.3beef32f08bb0b756e9b92148b754619.png

GFS at 144 is slightly more benign but more precarious looking than the 18z

image.thumb.png.8c22f63f03b4d99aaa6b081018a388c9.png

Edited by CreweCold
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO at 144...

that's some trough

image.thumb.png.3beef32f08bb0b756e9b92148b754619.png

GFS at 144 is slightly more benign but more precarious looking than the 18z

image.thumb.png.8c22f63f03b4d99aaa6b081018a388c9.png

Best put the Champagne on ice for now...

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Although it looks like gradually becoming cooler and more changeable / unsettled beyond the next few days, the longer term signal from the GEFS 0z is for a return to more summery conditions..certainly an increasing chance anyway!..so..June starts great and perhaps towards mid month and beyond we will see more high pressure and possibly even some plume / continental potential!?

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00z runs are pretty dreadful to be fair.

ECM is  like a dog with a bone with this unwelcome northerly...

Don't want to see troughing becoming 'stuck' in our locale.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

00z runs are pretty dreadful to be fair.

ECM is  like a dog with a bone with this unwelcome northerly...

Don't want to see troughing becoming 'stuck' in our locale.

 

 

Exactly just bought a bigger pool aswell. ? Hopefully we see the models showing something more akin to the 18z gfs by the time we get to this evening. The 00z ECM looks far away from anything like we've been getting for a fair while. 

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Ukmo continues the cool outlook from yesterday 12z as does ecm!!gfs not as good as yesterday but still slightly better!!as cool as it gets i will say this again there is hardly any rain in the forecast!!

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Good morning folks.:hi:

Once again the GFS 00Z op has us all under cooler air, come Friday:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, after that, uncertainty rules the roost::unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, anywho, judging by some of the above comments, I must be seeing a custom GFS!?

And, by the looks of things, a customised set of GEFS ensembles too!:oldgrin:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

So, to sum up: one day below 15C and the chance of seeing some rain...I've seen worse!:oldlaugh:

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19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo continues the cool outlook from yesterday 12z as does ecm!!gfs not as good as yesterday but still slightly better!!as cool as it gets i will say this again there is hardly any rain in the forecast!!

Yes still very little rain on offer apart from the end of the ECM. What is it with the ECM these days? It always used to be the GFS overblowing the lows in FI

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GFS and GEM not too bad.

ICON and ECM awful.

UKMO not great, but we don’t know where it will go next.

But still a high chance that the northerly will be further east. Maybe the overnight runs have overdone it?

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