Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Man With Beard]

Before we look north for our weather at the end of next week, the ECM (once again) seeks to turn things hot in the south; next week on Tuesday/Wednesday it has raw temperatures of 26C/27C in places - though it must be noted that the ECM has regularly downgraded the heat between D5 and D1 in recent weeks - it doesn't always work like this though, and I also saw on this morning's ensembles that some members get the temperatures up to around 30C before the end of the week.

Anyway, bottom line, probably still warm or very warm until the middle of next week.

Thereafter, the ECM really goes for it with the cold, with potential for daytime maximums in the low teens by next weekend. That would feel cold after what we've just experienced!

However, though a cooler interlude looks unavoidable, question marks must remain about the behaviour of the trough for the end of next week - the smart money would still be on it shifting further east and maybe even further north, going by what commonly happens when the ECM tries to predict a northerly. I still wouldn't be surprised if western areas in particular stayed fairly dry and not too cold throughout the period.

Will be interesting to see if the extended ensembles try to bring the Azores ridge back towards the UK between D11-D15, there was definitely a trend for that in this morning's ensembles.

 

[Bradowl]

53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone else remember when it did snow in June?  

I was 4.

I was 12, it was only sleet down here but I recall some cricket getting abandoned because of Snow, I think it might have been at Buxton. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

I was 12, it was only sleet down here but I recall some cricket getting abandoned because of Snow, I think it might have been at Buxton. 

Yes, it was, snow stopped play!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

I was 12, it was only sleet down here but I recall some cricket getting abandoned because of Snow, I think it might have been at Buxton. 

Derbyshire v Lancashire at Buxton were amongst several cricket matches abandoned... 10 years later in the same month.. Sleet was recorded at Birmingham Airport... Sorry for off topic mods... Just thought I'd clear that up. 

[Weather26]

Seems the ECM Wants to turn the clock back to 1975 next weekend! 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Weather26 said:

Seems the ECM Wants to turn the clock back to 1975 next weekend! 

I’m in! A repeat of summer 75 and 76 would be lovely.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m in! A repeat of summer 75 and 76 would be lovely.

Yes, beginning of July:

And a week later weather porn:

I know this is the past, but who knows what time we are living in at the moment, every day seems the same, but could be in any recent era, it is all weird, and for my money might as well be 1975!

[Mr Frost]

On 25/05/2020 at 08:09, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Talk of 30C should be flushed down the toilet for May - well and truly gone now. (It was never on though to start with)

 

 

Glorious day here with a temperature of 21C and sunshine - wee picture through my window of the sunset behind the Cowal Peninsula earlier. (High level clouds...some type of cirrus?)

I am now in full blown Summer mode! Just catching up with the models and seen the latest ECM run...

 

That would be a shock to the system for many of us after this current/next few days of stunning weather. 

Variety is the spice of life though so if it verifies...so be it. 

All the best everyone and have a fantastic weekend!

Cheers! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking pretty good out to day 5 on the Icon 18z..Unfortunately the run ends at that.. For the life of me I don't know why.. Cracking Weekend and early next week to look forward to though. It stinks of barbies round here this evening.. Looks like more to come this weekend. 

Anyhow that's me done... Off for a well deserved brew now..

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T138 for comparison ECM T144:

And it strikes me, it isn't what the high does next, it is what that low on ECM does next, the one near Shetland, it just isn't there on GFS.   

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

The 18z ensembles look interesting to me. To start the gfs operational is an defo outlier. A few go down the cool run but not as bad has op run. And a few go up in 850s to about +12/13. I still think it could go either way later next week. My confidence in the forecast is up to Monday . F. I is anything after in my view. PS the means lowest 850hp in the full run is +4 not - 4 like the op. Night all. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T138 for comparison ECM T144:

And it strikes me, it isn't what the high does next, it is what that low on ECM does next, the one near Shetland, it just isn't there on GFS.   

Yes very true. I think a lot is needed to be resolved before anything unsettled is certain. Some good model watching ahead. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed text

[Methuselah]

It's sort of 'as you were' according to today's GFS 00Z; much cooler, everywhere, come this time next week:

    

    

    

    

So, a slow warm-up looks the likely evolution following that...and the 00Z op is definitely on the cold side of the ensemble!

    

     

Still praying for rain!

 

[Frosty.]

I’m  for this chart to verify...absolutely stunning!!!!

Edited May 29, 2020 by JON SNOW

[claret047]

10 hours ago, Bradowl said:

I was 12, it was only sleet down here but I recall some cricket getting abandoned because of Snow, I think it might have been at Buxton. 

And at Colchester too. Friends of ours that week went on holiday to Wales for a fortnight. It was very cold & they wore their coats and jumpers. We all know what happened the following days and for the rest of the summer.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

39 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

I’m  for this chart to verify...absolutely stunning!!!!

cherry picked chart but interesting for Mr_Data's 13th June enigma

[The4Seasons]

41 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

I’m  for this chart to verify...absolutely stunning!!!!

Oh that would be awesome . Keep up the good posts mate. I always enjoy seeing what could happen. Some might be dream model charts but hey it is always a possibility . UK weather is full of surprises. 

[carinthian]

latest ICON run keeps the colder Northerly flow at bay and indicates a rather warm cyclonic continental flow with possible thundery rain into the south or southwest with only the Northern Half of Scotland in the colder air mass by this time next week.  However, seems on its own with this out-put.

C

[johnholmes]

Friday 29 may update on 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec-gfs both similar, marked troughs w and e’ern seaboard n America and ridging to give n of w flow for uk with marked trough over uk and n sea. Not a good upper air profile if anyone wants warmth!

Noaa similar so this looks like our main kind of upper air chart in the 7-10 day time frame? Sadly noaa also keeps this sort of pattern in its 8-14 day chart

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited May 29, 2020 by johnholmes
spelling

[mb018538]

Looking like an omega block in the wrong place for us....

[jules216]

After wet and miserable winter you have got a nice compensation of warm and settled spring in UK and IE. I am still waiting for our compensation after mild and relatively snowless winter here in Slovakia. I can not describe to you how bad this spring has turned out to be. One of few positives was sunny April,but it was under very windy NE regime which persisted until now and temperature departures have progressively fallen more and more into negative anomalies. Upshot will be even colder May than last year. Last year by magic heat arrived on 1st of June and summer ended very warm. This year no magic will happen and June will start where spring ended. Unreal, I don't remember seeing such a prolonged cold spell in a long long time.

[Paceyboy]

Surprised by the lack of comments this morning regarding the unsettled period coming up and the seemingly widespread acceptance of a cold spell (by June standards).

For me there is quite a bit of uncertainty creeping in for Weds/Thurs onwards. Some runs whether operational or ensembles across the model suite are pointing to a continuation of warmer airmass but unsettled. Quite a noteworthy alternative to a cold unsettled northerely.

Whatever happens we appear to be heading for at least a few days of showers or longer spells of rain. It may be much colder than of late or quite muggy, pick your poison!

[Leo97t]

Looks like this will be a paint by numbers repeat of last year with a warm first couple days before a cool unsettled spell and I expect the second half to be very warm and settled.

I hope this upcoming unsettled spell won't be as bad as last year -10th June was truly abysmal on a scale I hope to never see again in summer. 

I expect the ECM is overdoing and the high will shift eastwards but I don't expect it to topple quickly 

[Metwatch]

I guess firstly once the low from the south edges closer thundery outbreaks becomes more likely by Wednesday and Thursday with warm air in place it's plausible. Then possibly northerly plunge, very rare to see this cold for june not sure why it's forecasted. Gfs goes for two rounds of it as well. However rainfall still looking like in the form of showers for now

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, jules216 said:

After wet and miserable winter you have got a nice compensation of warm and settled spring in UK and IE. I am still waiting for our compensation after mild and relatively snowless winter here in Slovakia. I can not describe to you how bad this spring has turned out to be. One of few positives was sunny April,but it was under very windy NE regime which persisted until now and temperature departures have progressively fallen more and more into negative anomalies. Upshot will be even colder May than last year. Last year by magic heat arrived on 1st of June and summer ended very warm. This year no magic will happen and June will start where spring ended. Unreal, I don't remember seeing such a prolonged cold spell in a long long time.

Same in the Eastern Alps , @jules216 Horrid cold and cloudy conditions day after day. Looking on at envy the British Isles weather !

C