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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I’m pretty certain we will not see 30c temps next week, 850hPa temps should not be looked alone, the infamous example of that was last June where a low level marine NE’ly caused a big inversion, it could have been record breaking hot, with Camborne sounding 24c at 850hPa. But it did not translate to surface. It is unfathomable we could see such hot temps with easterly winds going over North Sea with SSTs of 8-10°C, also mainland Europe is cool right now the “heat” needs chance to build and establish beforehand. I think it is misconception people see bright reds at 500mb, and assume it is hot you need to look a little deeper. Only recently we had 12C 850hpa and light southerly flow and the best we achieved was 28C. I don’t see any evidence we will surpass what we saw earlier this week. 
 

B4AF42DD-B2F1-4CD2-B039-83E2E659BE7F.thumb.gif.d9a6c4047c6c2ea3d72362f64b0ba678.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.gif.d6ccc3933aa47827f5228a0ff1165f28.gif

Very warm ECM on Friday. Best of the bunch - mid to high twenties likely in the south/wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ECM is Muy cálida this evening

at 144.

ECM1-144.thumb.gif.f7617db1dae5bd743bf2cd6004db4017.gifECM0-144.thumb.gif.98959e2874d22bd021258269c3d6abef.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

What a great ecm run. Hits the sweet spot right through!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

T216 and we are into the high pressure riding over confined heat pump low territory I have been talking about tonight:

image.thumb.jpg.e072792c7b2a9d0d15e11d61feb704c3.jpg

If this happens, and I say if because it is 9 days away, like with the GEM, it will lock in a hot month or so, I think.

Edit: T240:

image.thumb.jpg.23e9dd93e4fa9f349ddb102508b84a9f.jpg

Don't underestimate the importance of that low at the bottom left...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

What an ECM , Next  ridge incoming ? Thoughts ?

1F31F574-D992-4D21-9CE9-7975881671ED.gif

C17876FC-F666-4E81-AEED-C35D979FC142.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Little bit troughy down the east at day 9/10 on the ECM, but not worried about that for now. Looks great out to day 6/7, which is good enough. The rest will fall into place as it gets better resolved in the coming days. Still a fair bit of scatter at day 7, which needs ironing out.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ECM is certainly cooler days 9/10 but who cares as there is plenty to cheer about before hand .

ECM0-216.thumb.gif.d57f6dd7bf08cbfe2712ea4bc8faa9c1.gifECM0-240.thumb.gif.eddcdc91cc7bbdf636cb54b44f3e33f6.gif

things can change and will and hopefully the warmth extends

good output again today.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Looks like it would build a Greenland high/Atlantic rather than build over the cut off at day, 10

You are not looking at the bigger picture, ECM T240 NH:

image.thumb.jpg.b27b8864c405ca8948e7c23c506969c2.jpg

The high is being forced as well, not sure who will win, but the models are currently suggesting the high will, leaving the cut off low to cause heat mayhem if in the right place...who knows, but interesting model watching over the next few days I think!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The general warm and settled theme for the week is unanimously agreed on now, but the ECM differs slightly by keeping less north sea influence, just like it did this morning, and consequently the end of the week looks "hot" rather than "warm", with temperatures in the high 20Cs (couldn't rule out a 30C). Other models keep things low or mid 20s throughout. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The general warm and settled theme for the week is unanimously agreed on now, but the ECM differs slightly by keeping less north sea influence, just like it did this morning, and consequently the end of the week looks "hot" rather than "warm", with temperatures in the high 20Cs (couldn't rule out a 30C). Other models keep things low or mid 20s throughout. 

As ever with our tiny plot of land surrounded by the oceans - wind direction crucial. Much more southerly influence on the ECM rather than cooler air spilling back over the high on other runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

According to the Country file forecast temperatures will peak around the 27c mark for the week ahead which for the end of May is very pleasant indeed.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Seems it's more or less a no brainier May will end dry and warm as it's been for most of the month. The question is how warm? Time will tell. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
58 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

 

I tell you what we are gonna be close to a dust bowl if this keeps up. 

 

I fear you may be correct - sadly, under current economic conditions, we really don't need an agricultural collapse.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 hour ago, MATT☀️ said:

Here we come with the reinforcements.. What the hell happened to the Atlantic.. It seem to have vanished to the Bermuda triangle. Cracking ECM

I tell you what we are gonna be close to a dust bowl if this keeps up. 

ECM1-240.gif

tenor-8.gif

I hope it does one...well until next year so we can have a beast from the east through winter too

latest from cpc days 6-10/8-14 all looks settled to me but and i say but we have to watch cooler air riding over the top of the hp cell,we need this hp cell further east to benefit more warmth,beggars can't be chooses and all

610day_03.thumb.gif.73f29c9d5948022a7a441ad85250eff4.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.042db3f7cc11e74dd13e8e8bacf3485b.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I hope it does one...well until next year so we can have a beast from the east through winter too

latest from cpc days 6-10/8-14 all looks settled to me but and i say but we have to watch cooler air riding over the top of the hp cell,we need this hp cell further east to benefit more warmth,beggars can't be chooses and all

610day_03.thumb.gif.73f29c9d5948022a7a441ad85250eff4.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.042db3f7cc11e74dd13e8e8bacf3485b.gif

 

Can't see there's much to complain about if you want settled warm weather in those outputs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Can't see there's much to complain about if you want settled warm weather in those outputs. 

Did i say that there is anything to complain about?

I did say it looks settled,i was just noting the fact that the high is in a slightly unfavorable position and while it is(forecast)to our west we will draw in cooler air from a northerly quadrant

this isn't a dead curt,just stating what it shows and i just hope that the hp cell will migrate further east to benefit more of a southerly feed.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

T216 and we are into the high pressure riding over confined heat pump low territory I have been talking about tonight:

image.thumb.jpg.e072792c7b2a9d0d15e11d61feb704c3.jpg

If this happens, and I say if because it is 9 days away, like with the GEM, it will lock in a hot month or so, I think.

Edit: T240:

image.thumb.jpg.23e9dd93e4fa9f349ddb102508b84a9f.jpg

Don't underestimate the importance of that low at the bottom left...

Yes, a low height anomaly to the West of Iberia was a persistent feature during June 2018 and the ECM had it this morning too, let's hope it remains.

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