Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Zoom run T240, we don't really need to see this, to be honest:

I can't see anything close to this happening, of course it is well into FI, anyway.  Form horse is hot dry settled weather into summer, punctuated by unsettled, possibly thundery blips,  for me anyway, we will see....

It almost seems that a 2018 repeat is on the way?!  Long shot I know, but the mid to later part of this spring is reminding me of 2018.  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Don said:

It almost seems that a 2018 repeat is on the way?!  Long shot I know, but the mid to later part of this spring is reminding me of 2018.  

Glad someone else thinks so, Don!  I think June will be very hot and dry, and stretch into July a bit, latter half of summer I think AAM will fall in line with La Niña and things  might tank then, but for the moment enjoy the heat....

[Don]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Glad someone else thinks so, Don!  I think June will be very hot and dry, and stretch into July a bit, latter half of summer I think AAM will fall in line with La Niña and things  might tank then, but for the moment enjoy the heat....

As long as it's not too humid (like summer 2018 wasn't) then that's ok by me!  

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

55 minutes ago, Don said:

27/28c easily from that chart!

Yes can always add a few degrees on. 

[shaky]

Much better mean and control!!dry and sunny all the way till the end!!

[Don]

1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Yes can always add a few degrees on. 

Correct!

[Frosty.]

A generally very pleasing Gfs 0z op / GEFS 0z mean, we get an Azores / Scandi high link up I mentioned yesterday and it’s particularly nice to see nationwide warmth and fine weather predominating rather than just the south!!...I think members in Scotland will be delighted with what the Gfs op shows during the week ahead, as it develops!

 

[Man With Beard]

Slight shift in the models this morning - high pressure just a touch further east by midweek shuts out more of the north sea influence 

and, consequently, here comes the heat by the weekend 

30C will be under threat if this verifies. 

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Slight shift in the models this morning - high pressure just a touch further east by midweek shuts out more of the north sea influence 

and, consequently, here comes the heat by the weekend 

30C will be under threat if this verifies. 

Some good looking charts for sure - but they all handle the trough differently still. ECM sends it down to Portugal this morning and keeps the UK settled!

[Methuselah]

Nice link-up for the start of June?

    

    

    

GEFS 00Z ensembles are also much-improved:

    

    

Looks like the woodshed is free of any hidden lurkers?

 

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nice link-up for the start of June?

    

    

    

GEFS 00Z ensembles are also much-improved:

    

    

Looks like the woodshed is free of any hidden lurkers?

 

You can really see the problems coming up at day 6/7 on the ensembles now - around a 20mb pressure spread as they struggle to process the low and where it goes.

Edited May 24, 2020 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

Wonderful EC , next week looking mainly dry and warm..

Even in the soggy NW the grass is getting that brown and yellow appearance associated with protracted dry spells.

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You can really see the problems coming up at day 6/7 on the ensembles now - around a 20mb pressure spread as they struggle to process the low and where it goes.

Going to be fine lines between a cool unsettled few days from Sunday onwards, that's if the trough drops over the UK, or a continuation of the heat if the trough stays west, like on the ECM this morning. 

Just noticed last night's clusters (D8) have moved considerably towards the trough missing the UK, or losing its identity altogether. 

 

[knocker]

37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Going to be fine lines between a cool unsettled few days from Sunday onwards, that's if the trough drops over the UK, or a continuation of the heat if the trough stays west, like on the ECM this morning. 

Just noticed last night's clusters (D8) have moved considerably towards the trough missing the UK, or losing its identity altogether. 

 

Given that these are the two det runs I'm afraid it's not completely obvious to me why they are relevant this morning

 

Edited May 24, 2020 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

27 minutes ago, knocker said:

Given that these are the two det runs I'm afraid it's not completely obvious to me why they are relevant this morning

 

I believe the colored anomalies represent the cluster means, and therefore by looking at the clusters you are getting a representation of all 51 ensemble members, a useful tool to be employed along with the operational runs. 

[Griff]

Hunting for rain has become akin to hunting for snow at winter time, always an eye to day 10... I've stopped looking beyond midweek! 

(Just to keep everyone happy, my preference is for night-time showers and sunny days) 

 

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I believe the colored anomalies represent the cluster means, and therefore by looking at the clusters you are getting a representation of all 51 ensemble members, a useful tool to be employed along with the operational runs. 

I completely agree that the clusters, interpreted correctly, are a very useful tool to be used in conjunction with the det runs That wasn't the point i was attempting to make. I was merely puzzled as to why yesterday's midday run was relevant this morning when the latest will be available shortly  I really should desist popping in here

Edited May 24, 2020 by knocker

[carinthian]

On 17/05/2020 at 09:14, carinthian said:

Latest Icon run produces a robust build in high pressure back again over the British Isles for next Sunday ( below ) I will keep this chart and compare this time next week in real time just out of interest. This run also indicated less impact of the Atlantic intrusion compared to the other models and has the low pressure systems deflecting towards Iceland.

C

There we are a week on from the above projected chart from ICON compared to the actual below.  On the face of it not a bad result with the main pressure features in the right places. However, in all fairness I think most models did not pick up the development of the Atlantic deepening storm until mid-week ( spawned from that one over the East coast of America) 7 days ago as there was still some doubt in the forecasts to its formation.  Looking at the UK observations was quite a dramatic change from summer heat to almost wild Autumnal conditions, especially Scotland and Northern England as the week progressed. I think a super week for the models in picking up this storm and great weather watching for fans who like a bit of variability. Looks like ridging shown on the ICON for today will be about 24-36 hours behind of prediction. Hope you Northerners get a rest bite from that wind this week and feels some warmth from the sun. Looking good.

 C

Edited May 24, 2020 by carinthian

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, knocker said:

I completely agree that the clusters, interpreted correctly, are a very useful tool to be used in conjunction with the det runs That wasn't the point i was attempting to make. I was merely puzzled as to why yesterday's midday run was relevant this morning when the latest will be available shortly  I really should desist popping in here

They're the latest set of clusters we can see from the ECM, and as I'm sure you'd agree, just looking at one set of ensembles is not as good as looking as looking at two, so I'm interested to see how they will change / not change when the new set were released later. Also, I had been sleeping between 11.30 and 7.30,so it really was the first chance for me, and I guess others, to see them

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Great output this from all models. Just a slight unknown with the trough track at the weekend. To be fair it's probably not gonna be much. I'm just glad that wind has died down. Been shocking up here in Barnsley. Friday/Saturday not cold but that wind was strong and a pain in the a##e. Morning all. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Anyone get the feeling we are going to see ANOTHER EQBO failure

The charts on the following website make me think so

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)

ACD-EXT.GSFC.NASA.GOV

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Plots of the QBO

The first chart I have picked out shows the wind speeds and direction at various levels of the atmosphere

This chart very briefly around a week or so ago said we were in the easterly phase then last week after just 1 week of EQBO decided we were in the west descending phase and in the last 2 days says we have gone back westerly again. Although we have performed better than in 2016 in the fact we achieved an EQBO it has based on this site so far been the shortest on record possibly

The second chart shows what has happened over quite a number of years

As can be seen in all years prior to 2016 things progressed very much as normal between EQBO and WQBO and back again.

1 - The first circled area clearly shows the EQBO failure in 2016, widely blamed on the Super Nino that took place around this time and how the WQBO expanded once again and strengthened throughout 2016

2 - A strange easterly jet developed in the lower regions of the atmosphere around the time of the EQBO failure. This appears to cut off the EQBO from descending and causes it to fail

3 - The most recent area shows a 2016 repeat but to less of a degree. It seems the EQBO is struggling a lot to make any progress below around 20hpa although it has performed better than in 2016 but can clearly be seen to be weakening in recent times

4 - Like in 2016 another one of those anomalous easterly jets has formed in the lower atmosphere again, this time a much faster one than the 2016 one. Although the effects are not really visible on this chart they are on the zoomed in one coming up

The final chart is a more in depth look at the last 3 years of the QBO

Here it is easy to compare this EQBO attempts vs the last one

5 - The 2017/2018 WQBO to EQBO transition progressed without any trouble and after 2016's failure things look to be back to normal

6a - There is a very brief change to a WQBO during this EQBO at 10hpa level.

6b - There is another of these changes to a WQBO at around 10hpa but this one looks like it is descending down below 10hpa already and this is after out week long EQBO. Is it more like the brief episode in 2018 or is this the death of the EQBO before it has really got going

7 - The anomalous easterly jet is clearly visible here on this chart and has really taken over the lower part of the atmosphere and it has clearly pushed the lingering WQBO upwards again and this combined with the WQBO appearing at 10hpa appears to be killing off the EQBO

This looks like a watered down version of the 2016 failure and this time a Super Nino cannot be blamed so was it really the Super Nino that caused it or something else as it looks like another failure is about to happen.

[Djdazzle]

@SqueakheartLW what does this mean for our prospects going forward?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good runs this morning.. Pardon the pun.. UKMO looks nice out to the end of the new working week its also becoming very warm too.. Uncertainty by next weekend, its not a cut and dried situation, and it may only be brief, something we seem to be getting used to so far this Spring. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by MATT☀️

[SqueakheartLW]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

@SqueakheartLW what does this mean for our prospects going forward?

The biggest effect will most likely play out in Winter 2020/2021.

Winter 2016/2017 was a blocked winter and if the EQBO had played out as it should have done it could have been a cold winter. As it happened it could have been the continuing WQBO that put paid to it as we were close at times to pulling in sustained cold spells but the blocking always set up in the wrong place and put us in the mild area instead

This year we appear to be forming a tripole in the N Atlantic right now and with the prospect of a La Nina too which also looks to be forming right now combined with low solar activity then things looked to be shaping up quite well for a cold UK winter as the EQBO should have been at its strongest by the time we got to the end of this year but with the latest developments it looks like that factor could play against us getting a cold winter. Combine that with the warming N Pacific again then a more standard or mild winter now looks more likely again.

As for summer 2020 the rapidly forming La Nina is a bigger concern if you want a dry summer as previous summers where we have quickly transitioned into La Nina the weather has taken a dive into a washout, 1998 and 2007 are good examples of this.

[Allseasons-Si]

I don't usually post in the morning but where did that come from,we lose the trough to our NW and it's high pressure all the way...well to t162

06z 162 v's 00z 168.