Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Exceptionally windy out there today, feels like the depths of winter in late May. All very odd feeling.

Reminds me of many a May from the 2000s and 2010s, although this time, a quick resumption of high pressure behind it. A low like this is perhaps more akin to August/September than now. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, MATT said:

I think 216 is OK si, still no real sign of any Atlantic persuasion..

Loving this MATT and under slack conditions all the way out to then should feel really pleasant in deed

@Mike Poole,you made me chuckle and i haven't had a drink for a week now thanks to the antibiotics,tonight though,i will be letting my hair down 

[Zak M]

ECM 240 looks very good

Edited May 22, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

Voila!

T240:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I tell you what guys the day 10 ending of the 12z is certainly better than the 0z ending... Drinks all around... Mike can pay...

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten

@Atlantic.you are the weakest link,goodbye.

 

 

[Methuselah]

Well, from where I'm sitting (a book, a bottle of vodka, Netweather and Creedence Clearwater playing on the stereo) all the current runs look like stonkers!

And, no guys (and I am one of the Ancients!) I've never seen a better spring than this one!

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, MATT said:

I tell you what guys the day 10 ending of the 12z is certainly better than the 0z ending... Drinks all around... Mike can pay...

It sure is Matt. But just the fact that those 2 charts as so different tells you everything. Anything past day 5 is problematic at the moment with that upper trough in play.

[Northernlights]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, from where I'm sitting (a book, a bottle of vodka, Netweather and Creedence Clearwater playing on the stereo) all the current runs look like stonkers!

And, no guys (and I am one of the Ancients!) I've never seen a better spring than this one!

Yes another Ancient  totally agrees having gone from the wettest ground conditions in early March to dusty soils currently.Huge dust storms to the west of Nairn this evening from newly planted fields of tatties and carrots in the very strong wind. Otherwise we  have had one of the best springs for establishing spring barley and red and white clovers in the grass fields have started growing vigourously long before their usual time.

[Mark wheeler]

32 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day ten

@Atlantic.you are the weakest link,goodbye.

 

 

Well Thomasz will be hunting for rain by then , But I’m sure he will be happy .

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Yes another Ancient  totally agrees having gone from the wettest ground conditions in early March to dusty soils currently.Huge dust storms to the west of Nairn this evening from newly planted fields of tatties and carrots in the very strong wind. Otherwise we  have had one of the best springs for establishing spring barley and red and white clovers in the grass fields have started growing vigourously long before their usual time.

I was thinking, just the other day, that all the trees are in full-leaf...That's hardly surprising in itself, these days, I know...But, way back in the early 1970s, I'd check the ashes, on my way to school (sad, I know!) and they always came into leaf on or around the late May bank holiday; this year, however, they've already been green for weeks!

And aye, the dust-storms along the A96 can be really weird...I doubt many of my fellow Sassenachs will know just what it means to be marooned due to sand drifts, here in the UK?

FWIW, I've spent the last few days weeding the Agretti...And, no, he doesn't play for Arsenal!

We really do need some rain!

[matt111]

Just now, General Cluster said:

We really do need some rain!

Looks like you might have to hope to get some showers tomorrow if this evenings output is anything to go by. 

Has anyone found Thomasz after his disappearance on this evenings forecast? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Eyes down for the mean.. Its largely a settled outlook, perhaps that High building in a little more by day 10..that poor old Atlantic being blown away at present.. How long can it last! 

[East Lancs Rain]

2 hours ago, MATT said:

Pretty bizarre, my netweather just crashed exactly at the same time Thomas schafernaker Was cut off as he mentioned temps next week into the high 20s..also to add quite an interesting GFS control run especially in fi.. But just look at that High Pressure.. 

Ahhhhhh... Good old Tomaz Schafeernaker. Often making mistakes and messing up but always laughs it off afterwards. I remember watching a clip on YouTube where he puts the middle finger up at the news presenter, only to relalise it was on camera!! 

[mb018538]

 

ECM mean is down to 1015mb by day 8-10, so it’s reasonable to expect some sort of trough incursion going on tonight’s output, though maybe not much rain. There is a 15mb spread in outcomes though, so certainly not cut and dried. 00z hopefully more helpful!

Edited May 22, 2020 by mb018538

[Man With Beard]

Rather more sane raw temps on the ECM this evening (got a 32C this morning in East Anglia!), but still very decent numbers, maxing between 23C and 27C (higher towards next weekend), so, with it usually being possible to add a couple of degrees to raw temps, it looks like many days next week getting to 25C and above, once again. Notably, any proper cool down has been pushed right back deep into FI. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM mean is down to 1015mb by day 8-10, so it’s reasonable to expect some sort of trough incursion going on tonight’s output, though maybe not much rain. There is a 15mb spread in outcomes though, so certainly not cut and dried. 00z hopefully more helpful!

I reckon tomorrows 12z more helpful!  I suggest ignore each and every run when these summer settled patterns tend to evolve more slowly than other patterns do in winter,  or what we are seeing in the difference between them is just noise, it is why I am only mainly commenting on the 12z suite at the moment.

[Northernlights]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I was thinking, just the other day, that all the trees are in full-leaf...That's hardly surprising in itself, these days, I know...But, way back in the early 1970s, I'd check the ashes, on my way to school (sad, I know!) and they always came into leaf on or around the late May bank holiday; this year, however, they've already been green for weeks!

And aye, the dust-storms along the A96 can be really weird...I doubt many of my fellow Sassenachs will know just what it means to be marooned due to sand drifts, here in the UK?

FWIW, I've spent the last few days weeding the Agretti...And, no, he doesn't play for Arsenal!

We really do need some rain!

Yes the ash  up here were always the latest to  come into leaf  in mid June in the 70s and would keep them until November when the first hard frosts occurred. Nowadays they are in leaf before the end of May (Just breaking into leaf today) and keep them until late November now especially if there are no frosts.

[RichmondWeather]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Well, from where I'm sitting (a book, a bottle of vodka, Netweather and Creedence Clearwater playing on the stereo) all the current runs look like stonkers!

And, no guys (and I am one of the Ancients!) I've never seen a better spring than this one!

Don't post here often but I have to agree, this spring has been like a better 2018 (which was rather good) so far, watching the models with great anticipation.....

[shaky]

Astonishing 18z!!dry and sunny out to 192 hours so far!!

[Djdazzle]

Everyone sleeping-in this morning?

Without looking in detail, the 0z runs seem to continue the warm and settled theme.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mb018538]

36 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Everyone sleeping-in this morning?

Without looking in detail, the 0z runs seem to continue the warm and settled theme.

ECM in particular looks like a rinse and repeat job. Pick of the pack again today, looks very warm by next weekend!

[johnholmes]

Saturday 23 May looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts for how the weather may turn out in the 6-10 day period

Ec and gfs and both show a flattish westerly into the uk with +ve heights to the south; the trough shape north of this differs between them but not by that much flow over the uk itself, so possibly a nw-se split with any frontal activity mainly in the nw. How warm would depend on what shape and position any surfave high may take up in the 6-10 day period.

Turning to noaa and it is quite similar to the pattern shown on the other two. Thus we can have a reasonable degree of confidence that the 6-10 day 500 mb charts will generally be pretty similar. So the comments on ec-gfs cover noaa as well.

for charts see the other thread

[Methuselah]

Nothing exceptional on today's GFS 00Z run; but I do find the prospect of a continuing lack of any useful rainfall a tad worrying:

    

    

    

Les ensembles:

    

    

Edited May 23, 2020 by General Cluster

[snowray]

It is Les Droughtville already around this way, my poor veg need watering every evening, may get a shower today if I'm lucky and that's it for another ten days or so. Northern Britain a different matter.

More in the way of  coming up for the southern half of the country.

GFS 0z 10 day accu rainfall...

 

 

BTW..I'm down in the SE where you can see 0mm.

Edited May 23, 2020 by snowray