Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem at 126hrs , where do we go from here .

 

Edit - Here is 144 looks fine and dandy

GFS at T+231...Everywhere, from the Shetlands to the Scilly Isles, would be basking in that!

    

                                

Edited May 22, 2020 by General Cluster

[Allseasons-Si]

Gone is that trough to our N/NE at day ten so a marked improvement in the extended.

240 v's 246 06z.

 Pffft!!! and that's me pushing it at day ten lol

enjoy the rest of your day folks

laters.

[mb018538]

GEM much more progressive tonight. The 00z was cracking, 12z opens the doors to the Atlantic. No thanks!

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I was wondering if it would follow this afternoon after this mornings run . good news all around if you want fine and dry weather .

That’s nothing new! Not really seeing any wow factor about the output the ECM 00z however well, it had a bit too much to drink, I’m just largely seeing a continuation of what we have been experiencing  

T144 UKMO and GFS pretty much identical 

 

Day 8 less inspiring you have two things going on the U.K. high slipping away to east which UKMO could well follow with too, and then you have some ridging in mid Atlantic with U.K. stuck between two regions of higher pressure. It seems what’s favoured is for pressure to fall a little day 8-10+ from NW not necessarily unsettled especially further se but cooler. A blazing start to June I’m not sure. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Daniel*

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM much more progressive tonight. The 00z was cracking, 12z opens the doors to the Atlantic. No thanks!

It could be a thundery one so i would take that

 

[Mike Poole]

Good 12z runs so for to the reliable and semi-reliable, but it is really only what we saw on yesterday's afternoon runs.  Our experience from winter also suggests that the 0z suite tend to be more mobile and progressive, and the same seems true here the last few days.  The background signals, AAM and SSTs in particular do support the kind of rinse and repeat high pressure systems moving ENE shown in most of the model output, so I'm certainly not getting hung up on the odd run, or even suite that briefly shows otherwise.  

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM much more progressive tonight. The 00z was cracking, 12z opens the doors to the Atlantic. No thanks!

It is hardly terrible? Not sure what some in here are expecting... start of a blockbuster 2018 summer? If some of you had your way, it would never rain again lol! There are people among us, like myself who like some variety in the weather, I’ve had 0.4mm this month I’d take rain, my garden would be thankful.

[Mark wheeler]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s nothing new! Not really seeing any wow factor about the output the ECM 00z however well, it had a bit too much to drink, I’m just largely seeing a continuation of what we have been experiencing  

T144 UKMO and GFS pretty much identical 

 

Day 8 less inspiring you have two things going on the U.K. high slipping away to east which UKMO could well follow with too, and then you have some ridging in mid Atlantic with U.K. stuck between two regions of higher pressure. It seems what’s favoured is for pressure to fall a little day 8-10+ from NW not necessarily unsettled especially further se but cooler. A blazing start to June I’m not sure. 

Your right it’s not anything new but I’m glad for now it’s continuing, I’ve just heard thomas schafenacker say on the beeb high 20s next week very likely in central and southern areas next week  ( what has he done ) for May that’s damn good in my opinion , prefer the UKMO and GFS output to Gem it seems I jumped the gun a little although it’s still ok .

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Mark wheeler]

Gem in its latter stages , 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s nothing new! Not really seeing any wow factor about the output the ECM 00z however well, it had a bit too much to drink, I’m just largely seeing a continuation of what we have been experiencing  

T144 UKMO and GFS pretty much identical 

 

Day 8 less inspiring you have two things going on the U.K. high slipping away to east which UKMO could well follow with too, and then you have some ridging in mid Atlantic with U.K. stuck between two regions of higher pressure. It seems what’s favoured is for pressure to fall a little day 8-10+ from NW not necessarily unsettled especially further se but cooler. A blazing start to June I’m not sure. 

Wow factor.. Its hardly been poor conditions.. The way I see it is for many weeks we have have many blue skies and warm sunshine on a regular basis.. Yesterday it was best part of 27c..still May also.. I can't see any signs of anything resembling zonality.. The occasional break down perhaps but I feel the conditions just lately are fab. We don't need 30+c for days on end for it to be gr8.. Obviously your idea of uninspiring and mine probably differ, and we all have our own agendas and I respect everyone for that. This spell of conditions is a million miles away from where we stood this time last year. 

GFS still going strong at T300hrs.. Lovely jubiley

Edited May 22, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Your right it’s not anything new but I’m glad for now it’s continuing, I’ve just heard thomas schafenacker say on the beeb high 20s next week very likely in central and southern areas next week  ( what has he done ) for May that’s damn good in my opinion , prefer the UKMO and GFS output to Gem it seems I jumped the gun a little although it’s still ok .

I think he may have had a peep at ECM 00z a cool 32°C next Sunday near north Norfolk coast.

earlier in week may not be particularly warm looks very finely balanced high centred a bit too west on GFS 12z allowing a much cooler flow off North Sea does quite quickly push east cutting it off.

 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, MATT said:

Wow factor.. Its hardly been poor conditions.. The way I see it is for many weeks we have have many blue skies and warm sunshine on a regular basis.. Yesterday it was best part of 27c..still May also.. I can't see any signs of anything resembling zonality.. The occasional break down perhaps but I feel the conditions just lately are fab. We don't need 30+c for days on end for it to be gr8.. Obviously your idea of uninspiring and mine probably differ, and we all have our own agendas and I respect everyone for that. This spell of conditions is a million miles away from where we stood this time last year. 

GFS still going strong at T300hrs.. Lovely jubiley

The spring has been very exceptional here in London, I’m just curious by the reaction some output is generating considering it’s not really anything new! The chart you posted is very knife edge esp for E it is settled but much cooler air lurking nearby, not that it’s worth going into detail. I don’t really see any hint of unsettled westerly winds, but I do however see potential for cooler plunge in longer range.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty bizarre, my netweather just crashed exactly at the same time Thomas schafernaker Was cut off as he mentioned temps next week into the high 20s..also to add quite an interesting GFS control run especially in fi.. But just look at that High Pressure.. 

[Methuselah]

And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the GFS 12Z op is all alone in falling off a cliff, come early June...A David Davis among runs, perhaps?

    

A max of only 11C!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM at 120...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Incoming warmth at 144hrs...boooyaka shakka

[Mike Poole]

Big four at T144:

ECM more amplified maybe.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, MATT said:

Incoming warmth at 144hrs...boooyaka shakka

Yes MATT,still looking good out to day 6 but i am a bit curious as to the progression of the Atlantic there

[mb018538]

I don’t like the ecm - flatter and less amplified. UKMO looks best at day 6 tonight. 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Big four at T144:

ECM more amplified maybe.

 

I would say that the ECM is the least amplified there Mike to be honest,unless you mean more amplified in to Scandi

168 shows that.

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I would say that the ECM is the least amplified there Mike to be honest.

 

Maybe, mb said something similar, am in a virtual pub session atm, but look upstream, isn't ECM digging the trough deepest?  But accept my attention is elsewhere...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Had to laugh at @Mike Poole, virtual drinking game, probably online with others around the world.. ECM shoving some heights into scandy.. Bring on the dry heat... Its all good.. Its all good.,

[Allseasons-Si]

At 192 i sense a disturbance...

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 192 i sense a disturbance...

 

I think 216 is OK si, still no real sign of any Atlantic persuasion..

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

Looks good to me.