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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

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Interesting slow moving slack low in sub minus 5 air over central southern England around 168-192 so just outside the semi reliable but something to keep an eye on going forward. 

It should be no surprise to see the models oscillating between spring warmth and winters last hurrah as the seasonal wavelengths become more meridional. 

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Here we go, the Icon 12z goes for the northerly plunge and a lovely Greenland high, this would be exceptionally cold for early April with sleet and snow showers turning up almost anywhere, (not just the old wishbone effect). Quite a cold windchill I would imagine too.??

 

iconeu-0-162.png

iconeu-0-180.png

iconeu-1-165.png

iconeu-1-180.png

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And gfs already a complete opposite to 6 hours ago after t144 no consistency whatsoever from this model. 

Ukmo looks prime for a very cold Northerly to develop. 

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29 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Lovely cross-polar flow on day 6 UKMO.

 

UN144-21.thumb.GIF.28dc781915034a27c6b2e21db4cca850.GIF

I will match that with the ICON,stunning!!!

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.66310898e06e168550210176b7357d06.pngiconnh-1-180.thumb.png.3e99f2731d8721cd1ce855f5b38ddafe.png

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And gfs already a complete opposite to 6 hours ago after t144 no consistency whatsoever from this model. 

Ukmo looks prime for a very cold Northerly to develop. 

Yes,the gfs looks totally wrong at 144,or is it!!!

love the UKMO/ICON to be right

UKMO,ICON and GFS at 144

UN144-21.thumb.gif.1ad2e2d1dad3c48d7730d48321847aa6.gificonnh-0-144.thumb.png.6e007b8f98a3e073b76a9d055a2e3b04.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.131bb7566944f04574efbb5ba28dcd3d.png

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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The GEM just about gets there with the cold northerly blast.. 

image.thumb.png.d88a1fc74ad87f2a4d1055f8286303b4.pngimage.thumb.png.fa9cf05e69f4429b936be83397284e2e.png

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Posted (edited)

And the control at day ten gives us this,a runner low that could give heavy snow on it's northern flank,look at the temp gradient:shok:

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.2f83df022a0c28fb77454dca3a15368b.pnggens-0-2-240.thumb.png.cbdb48ba51c7bd013ab4c917cc424cde.pnggens-0-0-240.thumb.png.abc7cea32fcceecf7248b4aff495cfd1.png

and the gefs ens from the 4th.....

graphe3_1000_263_30___.thumb.png.3df135d4d06bbebfee2b468836b47edc.pngdownload.thumb.jpg.b5f2070b86e1ea8148388a35435f4f85.jpg

take your pick?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of an "all-or-nothing" with this possible northerly. GFS has turned winter into summer over the last 24 hours, and the latest 12Z will certainly get the roses out. Dry and increasingly warm.

gfs-0-222.png?12

They need to make their minds up. 

I need to know whether I'll need to pack away me thermals and long John's :nonono:

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And the control at day ten gives us this,a runner low that could give heavy snow on it's northern flank,look at the temp gradient:shok:

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.2f83df022a0c28fb77454dca3a15368b.pnggens-0-2-240.thumb.png.cbdb48ba51c7bd013ab4c917cc424cde.pnggens-0-0-240.thumb.png.abc7cea32fcceecf7248b4aff495cfd1.png

and the gefs ens from the 4th

graphe3_1000_263_30___.thumb.png.3df135d4d06bbebfee2b468836b47edc.pngdownload.thumb.jpg.b5f2070b86e1ea8148388a35435f4f85.jpg

,take your pick?

No thanks.. I'd hate to be stuck under horrible rain whilst the rest of the country is snowing.

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Gfs struggling big time,only a 20c spread in the ensembles and at the top of the ensemble pack at the t144 timeframe where it had the Northerly missing mostly to the east,whilst UKMO  and icon have a direct Northerly approaching at  t1444,thinks it’s game over for gfs if ECM follows the other two models.

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52 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs struggling big time,only a 20c spread in the ensembles and at the top of the ensemble pack at the t144 timeframe where it had the Northerly missing mostly to the east,whilst UKMO  and icon have a direct Northerly approaching at  t1444,thinks it’s game over for gfs if ECM follows the other two models.

Any news on ecm!!!!has it joined the hideous gfs!!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any news on ecm!!!!has it joined the hideous gfs!!!

It has and it's rubbish.

image.thumb.png.1df94e2b34de33cc12a8bf9158d625ca.png

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on ecm!!!!has it joined the hideous gfs!!!

Yes but it's developed west biased -NAO so still some model drama,the JMA  is the same.

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.07a7c13c52152dd3a2836051f468138c.gifJN168-21.thumb.gif.127f21a2e650b129debc1c8f7f2c2d11.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

No but it's developed west biased -NAO so still some model drama.

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.07a7c13c52152dd3a2836051f468138c.gif

I think that could be it buddy!!dont see a turn around from here!!!i hope it does bring back the northerly but i doubt it!!the west based nao has been a threat for a couple of days now!!!at least we shall get a ridge coming from the south and prolong this dry period we are having!!

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Just now, shaky said:

I think that could be it buddy!!dont see a turn around from here!!!i hope it does bring back the northerly but i doubt it!!the west based nao has been a threat for a couple of days now!!!at least we shall get a ridge coming from the south and prolong this dry period we are having!!

Yes,screw this northerly now because i am sick of chasing cold charts,it was a lovely day again today to get out in the garden and get the lawns cut,love that smell of freshly cut grass?

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Ecm looks suspect to me at t44 ,another mild run at that timeframe,or are we just chasing shadows all the time.

 

Getting tired of this now,the next ukmo run should seal it one way or the other

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15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Way hay, if si is calling it a day.... Its all over ? I love the smell of freshly cut grass as well, only thing is it causes reactions like a cough and scratchy throat, and I end up thinking I'm coming down with that dam virus. ? Just noticed the latter stages of ECM brings a SWtly.. And some very warm air encroaching from the South... If we can't get that proper cold blast, let's at least keep it settled and warm... With all the flooding and this pandemic we are dealing with, I think we deserve a break... Anyway folks the last few weeks as learned me to take a completely different view of life!! The time I used to get stressed and argue with people on here all because I wasn't getting the weather I wanted, as long gone... Each day is precious, and as long as we look after ourselves and the ones closest to us.... That's all that matters.. And whatever time we have to spare... A little help for those much more unfortunate than ourselves... Whatever the weather may bring.... Do take care.. 

ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

Guaranteed blizzard then if the hunt is over! 

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Well we have had seven cloudless days down here on the Hampshire Riviera, let’s hope for another seven next week. 

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Yep. It was a lovely day today, quite a lot of people were outside. 

If only this would verify ? it has a high dominating the UK for 7 days straight, with temps into the high teens, and even low 20s... as seen around the London area!

More weather like this is very welcome, especially in the upcoming summer months.

ukmaxtemp (8).png

A very pleasant Easter according to the GFS 12z.  Obviously too far out for anything other than viewing at this stage.

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