Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

Here's the GFS 00Z's take on things:

    

    

    

    

    

    

And, as the ensembles show, not only do things gradually warm up, post blip, the GFS 00Z op is very much on the cooler side of the pack:

    

    

And there's no sign of anything like 100mm of rain!

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Here's the GFS 00Z's take on things:

    

    

    

    

    

    

And, as the ensembles show, not only do things gradually warm up, post blip, the GFS 00Z op is very much on the cooler side of the pack:

    

    

And there's no sign of anything like 100mm of rain!

You insist on mocking but again here is the accumulated precip, and I did say while the Ops run for GFS was poor it wasn't without some support from the ensembles, which is entirely accurate. 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You insist on mocking but again here is the accumulated precip, and I did say while the Ops run for GFS was poor it wasn't without some support from the ensembles, which is entirely accurate. 

Good morning, Chris; point taken.

It's nae you I'm mocking, it's the GFS's accumulation charts...I'd love to see 100mm of rain (so long as it's reasonably well spread out!); the farmland I've been working on is either like concrete or like dust, depending on the bedrock...And our entire agrarian system is predicated on changeable weather...?

[Polar Maritime]

Morning all, A new thread will be opened up for the start of Summer sometime today.

[mb018538]

ECM ensembles still have no real appetite for high pressure moving in like the GEM 00z shows. A slow improvement from the weekend.

[ChannelThunder]

RE flooding potential; I don't see that being an issue, as that rainfall accumulation chart clearly seems to be over-exaggerating things compared to the general model output. A week or two of spread-out rainfall events shouldn't lead to any problems, then summer can (and I'm sure will) resume 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Lance M

[sheikhy]

Gfs an outlier in terms of pressure from the 10th!!so those ridiculous wet charts might nit be that bad closer to the time!!not to say its wrong cos it could wellbe right!!

[Leo97t]

The BBC mostly this morning is really positive but I'm not sure how seriously it should be taken

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[Methuselah]

Good to see that, by Monday (if the GFS 06Z is right) things should be settling down, thundery showers permitting, and warming up to comfortable levels:

    

I also think that the MetO's latest update is an oddball!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM and GFS seem to be suffering from split personality Disorder these days.. GEM most definitely leads the way... Its a cracker. I'm expecting gradual improvements from the main models before much longer. 

[Guest]

I was going to say to T+168 GFS 06z appears to be better, but the secondary trough sinks down over the UK bringing alot of cloud and rain. But certainly better near term.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I was going to say to T+168 GFS 06z appears to be better, but the secondary trough sinks down over the UK bringing alot of cloud and rain. But certainly better near term.

And, next Friday looks being a cracker, with that there onshore wind:

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6Z looks much better by day 10,and much warmer also... It needs to hurry up, I seem to be suffering from SAD today.. I'm not used to grey skies and rain..

[StretfordEnd1996]

Some lovely-looking uppers are showing their face in the 06z GFS run - it's a long way off but nonetheless nice to see as a possibility

 

In the much nearer term it's somewhat clear to me we're heading into (or have headed into) a much more unsettled spell with cooler temperatures and LP often making an appearance in the next 7 days

HP moves back in up towards D10 (as per first image) but that's a long way off

 

It seems as though some are almost 'confused' or surprised that this less settled spell is arriving on our shores - almost as if to suggest it's unusual or very surprising at this time of year (perhaps more so too because of the Spring we've just had). To me this upcoming spell looks completely normal and one of a number of possibilities the great British weather can bring in the (early) Summer period. We've had an absolutely cracking spell of weather, and we've had some cracking hot spells in recent Summers - but sometimes these types of scenarios such as the one in the next 7 days or so in my opinion are still always an entirely plausible possibility (and perhaps a welcome one too). There's nothing to suggest in the shorter range models that this pattern is going to materialize for the long term - as these models only go out to 14 days or so anyway. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

And, next Friday looks being a cracker, with that there onshore wind:

    

GFS 06Z really drags in some much warmer conditions as the trough really sinks much further south west which is exactly what we wanted, the air is super juicy with DP's getting close to 20C (they'll be overdone loads) Its such an unusual and finely balanced set-up it'll be very interesting to see were this sits in the ensembles.

[Guest]

The rest of the run is troublesome as high pressure reasserts itself strongly in the Atlantic and opens up the doors to another northerly incursion. 

[mb018538]

Looks like the sinking low is the preferred option. Could drag in some warmer air around the low as some runs are now showing. Depends how far it can sink away from the UK as to what we’d get here.

[Man With Beard]

Just to add to @mb018538 above, the D15 chart shows a lot of ridging to the NE

Though there is the danger of remaining stuck under a euro trough, the odds of things warming up will be pretty good if a NE ridge takes hold - it will force weather to get to us via the continent rather than the Atlantic (unless troughs sneak underneath at the right angle, which surely cannot go on indefinitely)

[Methuselah]

Well, the GFS 06Z ends on a bit of a high:

    

[mb018538]

Not sure I agree with Marcos optimism here. Funny that a tweet from Laura Ellam (Deputy Chief Meteorologist @ MetO) below his tweet basically says no too!

[Daniel*]

14 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly. That sort of post isn’t really necessary. You can pick any chart to suit your narrative if you really want to. Like me picking the clusters from a day later that show 70% of members having high pressure dominating. Not so clear cut now is it? 

Overall that was noise still largely advertised a pattern change of sorts with main blocking ebbing west of UK the more unsettled aspect was firmed up later but there was good grounds for something cooler and something dissimilar to what we had been experiencing. It seems some only choose to accept it when it become blindingly obvious, all the while the signal was progressively growing in strength. Perhaps shows why people shouldn’t be relying so much on op runs. Personally I believe the EC clusters offer the most insight and the best guidance. As for reasons explained by Tamara and Singularity there was also teleconnection support, which underpinned change in forecast. Ignorance is bliss? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Allseasons-si and @Zak M just for fun and for you guys too, this chart would surely be hot and potentially stormy conditions with a big boom.. One of many options on the table from the ens.. But perhaps signs of a pressure build again later next week in the mid term..wouldnt mind seeing a few pyro lightening storms myself, although I'm not as hardcore as you and many others on here..

Edited June 3, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, MATT said:

@Allseasons-si and @Zak M just for fun and for you guys too, this chart would surely be hot and potentially stormy conditions with a big boom.. One of many options on the table from the ens.. But perhaps signs of a pressure build again later next week in the mid term..wouldnt mind seeing a few pyro lightening storms myself, although I'm not as hardcore as you and many others on here..

Yes Matt, P1, P6 and a few other perturbations are going for a hot, humid and stormy round of weather in mid June.

   

Here's me hoping that they actually come off!

[matt111]

29 minutes ago, MATT said:

@Allseasons-si and @Zak M just for fun and for you guys too, this chart would surely be hot and potentially stormy conditions with a big boom.. One of many options on the table from the ens.. But perhaps signs of a pressure build again later next week in the mid term..wouldnt mind seeing a few pyro lightening storms myself, although I'm not as hardcore as you and many others on here..

Seems it’s as likely as anything else at the moment with the large range of options on the table. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by matt111

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure I agree with Marcos optimism here. Funny that a tweet from Laura Ellam (Deputy Chief Meteorologist @ MetO) below his tweet basically says no too!

I'd agree he is being a touch optimistic, at least in terms of any marked rise in temperatures