Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Allseasons-Si]

@Mike Poole^

i am glad that you posted the NH views,i usually do...in winter

What i see there is that the hp cell to the east looks like flexing it's bulging red hot muscles

...and sorry if i keep on banging on the same drum but if this trough/low drops to the SW/S then you have to look east/SE for the warmth

the gfs op/control and some of the gefs ens have been showing this for the past few days if not several days now

blimey it's like the winter model thread in here at the moment it's been that busy ha! ha!

only the select few only usually post in here in summer,i suppose that we have been very lucky with this prolonged warm/hot spell that there was plenty to talk about,not to forget the lock down as well of which i think that it has brought us closer together in this nice friendly environment

so cheers gang and have a few on me

 

 

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I have zero enthusiasm towards ECM 12z only at day 10 it looks good.. it is very poor for us in the southeast very suppressed temperatures, cloudy and a fair bit of rain over 40mm in places. The totals are trending upwards for our region and drier for N/W.

 

It was atleast 26c here in Dartford today (nearest location is London City airport) that 23c looks wrong but still as you say a cool down

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, MATT said:

 

I loved the ECM op... Here is the mean, not quite as good as the op, but I still feel a return to Higher Pressure towards mid next week looks a decent call. 

This is the ECM op late next week. Doesn’t look great to me? 

[bluearmy]

the eps clusters - if you look at an isolated run then you can write your own script - if you follow all the runs then you realise where the direction of travel is most likely ....that’s not to say that the op won’t discover a new route days 7-10 but  that doesn’t happen too often. 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It was atleast 26c here in Dartford today (nearest location is London City airport) that 23c looks wrong but still as you say a cool down

Normal in warm weather for ECM to be 2°C under it was 25°C at London city today, it’s not usually too cold I’m afraid! Saturday is looking particularly cool with slow moving showery rain. London should be seeing maxes in the 20s now, it looks like we will just scrape teens a poor weekend in general. We seem to have a tendency for weekends to not be so great, recent weeks it has all been great however. 

[Alexis]

Would be nice to have a new thread for the start of summer. And maybe with a better title than this one had, since 'heading into April' dated just a tad quickly? 

[Man With Beard]

Some really fascinating charts after D8. GFS 18Z remarkably sees a ridge from the east pushing the trough right back across the Atlantic! 

The main story D8-D15 is this very unusual idea of linking up the Azores High and a Russian High via a route to the north of the UK. There's a remarkable number of ECM ensembles going for this considering the timeframe:

And the north-based ridge doesn't go too far on many members over the following days

But is anyone else noticing more of a tendency to push the euro trough further west? This scenario is knife-edged in summer. For W Scotland, it could be glorious and even hot, but there will be a dividing line where everything to the south is at risk of gloom and rain. However, pull the trough south, and you extend the area that could experience a "back door" heatwave from the east. Pull the trough south and west, and you could even get a draw from France and Spain. 

After a cool/unsettled 7 days ahead, all to play for in mid-June, then, with heat possible from unlikely sources. 

[Zak M]

18z GEFS (p2) looks remarkable to say the least, with a cut-off low bringing a plume of warm air our way.

      

A few other perturbations have been quite remarkable tonight too. If only they would verify!

[Eugene]

Very cool spell ahead from today until next Tuesday at least, a 6 day period with temps in Central England 15C or lower, potentially very cold on Saturday with 10C/11C Max's possible. So much for the one day of 15C some were very confident of just a few days ago.

[MikeC53]

30 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Very cool spell ahead from today until next Tuesday at least, a 6 day period with temps in Central England 15C or lower, potentially very cold on Saturday with 10C/11C Max's possible. So much for the one day of 15C some were very confident of just a few days ago.

Certainly a very poor GFS this morning, no doubt Alderc and the Cambridge bloke wlll be all over it later with their apocolyptic predictions. I fancy ECM will be better.

[Weather-history]

That could be the largest rainfall accumulation 384hrs GFS chart  since early March 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Weather-history

[Guest]

Only a few days back even today looked ok and like we might sneak another 22-24c in the south, looks as though it could well rain for most of the day, so clearly models are all over the place but wow where did GFS produce that one from, utterly vile output that should probably come with an 18 certificate with the trough in situ for the entire run, probably bringing flooding rain to some areas, there’s certainly support from some ensembles, so it’s by no means an outlier and ICON appears to going down the same route. Fortunately there’s some disagreement from GEM (the best by a mile this morning) and UKMO seems slightly better @144 but clear no evidence to suggest where it’ll go post day 6. 

Payback weather with a lockdown lifting multiplier thrown in for good measure

Edited June 3, 2020 by Guest

[ChannelThunder]

42 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That could be the largest rainfall accumulation 384hrs GFS chart  since early March 

Good. It's so needed.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Good. It's so needed.

No flooding is not needed.....

[Frosty.]

Yet again there is some great potential for summery weather to return during the mid June period as shown here on this small sample from the GEFS 0z and a number of other close shaves with continental heat, even the op showed hot weather just to the east!...in the meantime, a much cooler and unsettled spell to come compared to recently followed by a gradual improvement next week which wouldn’t be difficult!

[Guest]

Thankfully ECM seems to be going down the GEM route @T144 As high ridges in more strongly however need to keep an eye to northwest, hopefully that low near Iceland won’t dive down over U.K. and take us down the gfs route. 

[Astral Goat Juice]

30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No flooding is not needed.....

That's not remotely anything like what he said was needed. @Lance M implied a good amount of rainfall was needed, which it is. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

That's not remotely anything like what he said was needed. @Lance M implied a good amount of rainfall was needed, which it is. 

And I agree however with over 100mm in parts of east anglia that chart would no doubt cause flooding. 

[northwestsnow]

An unusual EC with the trough to the SW and a warm easterly...

With the warm uppers and slack pressure i wonder if EC would produce something for the storm hunters?

My concern is the signal for high latitude blocking, a signal that seems to be gathering momentum..

Edited June 3, 2020 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

That's not remotely anything like what he said was needed. @Lance M implied a good amount of rainfall was needed, which it is. 

He said good, it’s needed to that ppn chart....of which there is 100mm plus in a number of places in 12 days. That would mean flooding!

Back to this morning - GFS is crud and a wet and unsettled outlier anyway. GEM somehow builds an Azores high in by day 10, which looks fanciful. ECM looks quite odd to me with low pressure going N-S through the UK. All very messy.

[Guest]

ECM pattern is slightly more optimistic however we still don’t see a recovery of temps to 20c until day ten. Huge differences again between gfs and ecm, given some of the other models I’d suspect ecm is sitting towards the top of the of ensembles!

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, Alexis said:

Would be nice to have a new thread for the start of summer. And maybe with a better title than this one had, since 'heading into April' dated just a tad quickly? 

Lot of rain to come. Let’s hope nobody gets flooded out of their homes like they were earlier in the year.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[MikeC53]

48 minutes ago, Azazel said:

 Lot of rain to come. Let’s hope nobody gets flooded out of their homes like they were earlier in the year.

No guarantee of that at all this morning from the output.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Polar Maritime
Snipped quote.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

He said good, it’s needed to that ppn chart....of which there is 100mm plus in a number of places in 12 days. That would mean flooding!

Back to this morning - GFS is crud and a wet and unsettled outlier anyway. GEM somehow builds an Azores high in by day 10, which looks fanciful. ECM looks quite odd to me with low pressure going N-S through the UK. All very messy.

The reality is the jet is moving south and northern blocking is rearing its ugly head,its pin a tail on the donkey time insofar as to where the green circle ends up but i would take a stab and say initially at least, the further north you are,the better chance of drier weather.

 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The reality is the jet is moving south and northern blocking is rearing its ugly head,its pin a tail on the donkey time insofar as to where the green circle ends up but i would take a stab and say initially at least, the further north you are,the better chance of drier weather.

 

I agree @northwestsnow. West too. The east looks most at risk at the moment for wetter weather.