Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mb018538]

CFS weekly update is out (image from Simon Lee) and shows northern blocking dominating through June. Doesn’t look great!

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

CFS weekly update is out (image from Simon Lee) and shows northern blocking dominating through June. Doesn’t look great!

There were 6 consecutive months of -NAO last year from May-Oct followed by (of course, of course) 5 months of solid +NAO from Nov-Mar.

This April went negative again (May has yet to be updated).

Hmm. 

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

But the point is with so many members producing spikes, or even just a mm or two it’s going to stay mostly cool and damp through the entire period.

Exeter are certainly in agreement as their long ranger is going for rain or showers throughout most of June with below average temperatures. Models firming up on that idea now too. Maybe we have already had our summer. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

What a Chart....!!!!!

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Mid Month.

Maybe some pyrotechnics from this? 

NW Archive

I will never forget staying out all night back in 1982 - the same date an impressive weekend.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

According to icon, Saturday is a naff day.. And that's putting it mildly.. Beyond that N/E areas are likely to be quite showery in nature with more Western and Southern areas seeing better conditions overall with plenty of sunny spells. The chart is slack by 180hrs..so sunny spells and showers look a good call. I've noticed the Exeter update has been tweaked somewhat too... Plenty of settled Conditions away from Northern and Eastern parts.. Temps a touch above average for most of the month, and widely more settled beyond mid month... It doesn't seem a great prognosis for those North and East locations though for the next 10 day's.. I would imagine a fair amount of rainfall totting up, but much less in Southern and Western areas.. So depending on where you live it's either not to bad... Or pretty grim in the mid term.. But to finish Saturday does look a particularly crappy day. 

[Methuselah]

Friday looks like being a great day, for working outside...One can only take so much unbroken sunshine!

    

[Guest]

The output again deteriorates, some utterly dreadful weather coming on Saturday as we revert to mid March, low teens 40-60kmh gusts, no thanks. 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO looks quite good at T144:

Compare GFS at same time:

i recall these two runs were at odds yesterday afternoon too.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks an improvement this evening...

Azores high attempting to dry things out by 120..

Saturday looks a poor day in fairness but after the driest May for many years it is to be expected.I mentioned perspective the other day,we don't live in Spain guys!! 

Edited June 2, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

Well, I'll take the GFS 12Z, for next Monday; none too cold, sunny intervals, no wind, and the chance of catching a heavy, thundery shower!

    

And maybe a Cb tall enough for Zak to see!

[northwestsnow]

GFS also looks an improvement with some warm continental air being pulled west off the continent mid term...

[049balt]

It has been fascinating reading the thread over the past week, we have become so used to Summer weather that we seem unable to accept what is just around the corner. This is the model discussion thread and suddenly we won't believe what those same models are telling us, that Summer is over, and possibly for some time. Of course the "Oracles" are here to hold our hand and claim there is no need to worry, Summer will be back in a jiffy. Lets wait and see..

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS also looks an improvement with some warm continental air being pulled west off the continent mid term...

Indeed NWS; at Day 10, the GFS 12Z is turning into a stonker:

    

[Cheshire Freeze]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks an improvement this evening...

Azores high attempting to dry things out by 120..

Saturday looks a poor day in fairness but after the driest May for many years it is to be expected.I mentioned perspective the other day,we don't live in Spain guys!! 

We need some rain anyway. Who wants the grass to be completely scorched off and nature to look ragged this early in the summer?

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We need some rain anyway. Who wants the grass to be completely scorched off and nature to look ragged this early in the summer?

I quite like the parched look! Up to a point, of course.

[Zak M]

Day 10 looking quite warm on the 12z GFS

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We need some rain anyway. Who wants the grass to be completely scorched off and nature to look ragged this early in the summer?

Agreed..

Some rain wont do any harm, even in the good old soggy NW of England its approaching drought!

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Zak M said:

Day 10 looking quite warm on the 12z GFS

Yes, quite slack and warm, thunderstorm potential perhaps.

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS also looks an improvement with some warm continental air being pulled west off the continent mid term...

Yes, although my inclination is to go with the UKMO at the earlier time, GFS does look promising at T240:

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We need some rain anyway. Who wants the grass to be completely scorched off and nature to look ragged this early in the summer?

You'd be surprised...

Back O/T, I like the outputs for the end of the wek for my area - possible rainfall where we need it, and less in areas that are still OK?

[Mike Poole]

GEM out to T150 and also looks more positive, I would say.

Models swinging back now tonight anyway, as the MO extended outlook seems to go in the other direction.  Mind you, that will be based on earlier output of course.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just to take a look at where we are come day 6 into 7..UKMO is encouraging, the icon is kinda know man's land, with GFS take a while to improve things.. Gem seems to be slowly but surely getting there by day 7...and you can see the reasoning behind plenty of decent Conditions away from the East.. 

[Methuselah]

Retrogression is a two-side coin: a wee bit, and we're open to a nasty northerly; a big bit, and the backdoor to European warmth opens?

    

[Guest]

Let's have the best of both worlds, eh? GFS 12z hints at it and I'm sure several members of the suite will ramp up the heat towards mid-month as they align us for a continental feed 'just right'. Speculation aside, we can write off the rest of this week as cool and unsettled, I hope many, or all of us can cop some much needed rain for the gardens in that time. By next week the trough fills out and we see increasingly slack conditions as temperatures return to near normal and heavy showers spark up inland. A bit of a half-way house to what many of us want...

With lower pressure over the Bay of Biscay, not quite as pronounced on the 12z op compared to the 06z, there are wafts of continental air not too far away. The GFS is a bit of a tease on that front with the warmest air (at 850hPa level) never quite making it but even so we'd likely see temperatures edging back into the low 20s with the risk of a few thunderstorms especially further south.

My hope is we all get a good top up of rain this week before we transition next week into something warmer and perhaps more thundery from the continent. Not too much to wish for?