Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

So, the GEFS 12Z ensembles paint a similar picture to what they have been, over the last few days: a sharp dip, followed by a steady improvement:

    

    

And there's some rain, too!Because we all know who'll be the first to start whining, should food-prices skyrocket, come Autumn?

[Mike Poole]

Big three at T120:

ECM mid way at this point, I would say.  It often is.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

T144:

Again we see the ECM take the middle ground, I think we will just have to wait a couple more runs to see how this pans out, before getting overly worried about longer range seasonal predictions.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Interesting. The mean goes above average from about the 11th, but the pressure mean for the same time is low (around 1010mb). Sounds like warm and thundery to me. For those crying out for a storm, that could be an option!

[Tim Bland]

Cool and unsettled from day 2 to 10 is the general theme from all models unfortunately. Ensembles agree, hopefully a return to summer day 10+

[Djdazzle]

Exactly. When differences occur at 120, caution is advised!

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Cool and unsettled from day 2 to 10 is the general theme from all models unfortunately. Ensembles agree, hopefully a return to summer day 10+

Question is, how much rain? There doesn’t look to be much at the moment.

[Zak M]

12z ECM @168

Interesting...

Edited June 1, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @168

That is surprisingly positive!  By the way, does anyone still have the link to the UKMO T168 chart?   It might be quite interesting today....

Edited June 1, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That is surprisingly positive!

Indeed it is.

That low to the W of Iceland could pose a thread and wash all the settled conditions away... let's hope not!

[Zak M]

Thought this would happen...

[mb018538]

ECM prevents a washout, but would just be sunshine and showers with temps probably 15-21c. UKMO best tonight, that 144 chart could just push low pressure far enough out of the way at day 6/7. Looks like with so much difference we await tomorrow.

[Zak M]

12z ECM @216

[Djdazzle]

ECM is certainly better than GFS tonight! Not brilliant, but compared to last June, it looks quite tame.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @216

Bounce back from T216 then on ECM.   But don't bet against it being faster based on UKMO...we will see.....

[Zak M]

Looks to be a north-south split at 240

The ECM has been better than the GFS this evening.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Zak M said:

Looks to be a north-south split at 240

The ECM has been better than the GFS this evening.

Although it looks unsettled, I’d take that chart over some of the mid Atlantic blocks that have been shown recently. A slight deviation north of the jet would soon have us back in business there.

[stodge]

Evening all

One final fine day tomorrow, it would seem, before the descent into proper summer weather begins but will it be a "blip" or is the pattern resetting but not necessarily to our advantage?

Looking at the 12Z output tonight, I'll take the line at T+216 so that's Wednesday June 10th:

While there are a couple of straws for fans of settled weather to clutch - GFS Control ridges the Azores HP encouragingly toward the south west of the British Isles. the problem is more prosaic.

Between heights to the NE and heights to the SW, the negatively-aligned trough is in charge with shallow areas of LP moving ESE through northern Britain and then down to the North Sea. Pressure remains low on the Continent as well so the outcome is traditional British summer fare - on the cool side, cloudy with rain or showers. Some brighter spells of course and we're hardly talking about ark-building quantities of rain but it will be disappointing after the anomalously sunny spring we have all enjoyed.

The Azores HP isn't in the wrong place but it's not oriented well for us at this time.

Further into FI, GFS OP keeps the weather very unsettled with more Atlantic LP sweeping in while Control is a little more optimistic but we see the prevailing pressure pattern and problem - the core of HP moves across the British Isles to Scandinavia but the European trough remains the dominant force and keeps the south in particular at risk of rain or showers - warm and humid though to compensate a little.

The CFS anomalies continue to suggest higher pressure to the north and lower to the south into July so I suspect the changed pattern may prove harder to shift then some think.

We'll see.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

One final fine day tomorrow, it would seem, before the descent into proper summer weather begins but will it be a "blip" or is the pattern resetting but not necessarily to our advantage?

Looking at the 12Z output tonight, I'll take the line at T+216 so that's Wednesday June 10th:

While there are a couple of straws for fans of settled weather to clutch - GFS Control ridges the Azores HP encouragingly toward the south west of the British Isles. the problem is more prosaic.

Between heights to the NE and heights to the SW, the negatively-aligned trough is in charge with shallow areas of LP moving ESE through northern Britain and then down to the North Sea. Pressure remains low on the Continent as well so the outcome is traditional British summer fare - on the cool side, cloudy with rain or showers. Some brighter spells of course and we're hardly talking about ark-building quantities of rain but it will be disappointing after the anomalously sunny spring we have all enjoyed.

The Azores HP isn't in the wrong place but it's not oriented well for us at this time.

Further into FI, GFS OP keeps the weather very unsettled with more Atlantic LP sweeping in while Control is a little more optimistic but we see the prevailing pressure pattern and problem - the core of HP moves across the British Isles to Scandinavia but the European trough remains the dominant force and keeps the south in particular at risk of rain or showers - warm and humid though to compensate a little.

The CFS anomalies continue to suggest higher pressure to the north and lower to the south into July so I suspect the changed pattern may prove harder to shift then some think.

We'll see.

Some of that is plausible, but we've already demonstrated earlier in the thread that T144 is already FI...and I would therefore factor in the UKMO at T144, lots of uncertainty in this one yet, I would say....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

57 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Because we all know who'll be the first to start whining, should food-prices skyrocket, come Autumn?

I resemble that remark!  Anyway, what's interesting about much of the input you've posted today is that most of the rain spikes appear after the pressure has already increased slightly.

[mb018538]

At least we didn’t see any silly ‘oh look it’s the June Monsoon’ comments about the ecm 240 chart. Hate that phrase with a passion. It’s not even a monsoon.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

At least we didn’t see any silly ‘oh look it’s the June Monsoon’ comments about the ecm 240 chart. Hate that phrase with a passion. It’s not even a monsoon.

Yes, that is a weird thing that has crept into the conversation in June, like 'return of the westerlies'. I've never seen evidence for either, obviously sometimes it does get more unsettled in June, just random noise. but to make a thing of it doesn't make any sense. 

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that is a weird thing that has crept into the conversation in June, like 'return of the westerlies'. I've never seen evidence for either, obviously sometimes it does get more unsettled in June, just random noise. but to make a thing of it doesn't make any sense. 

Exactly - it’s not consistent or reliable enough to be called a monsoon. It happens sometimes. Other times like 2018 it’s dry and hot. Or something in between. In other words, the typical mixed bag of UK weather we all love!

[Tim Bland]

Here comes the June monsoon, ️only a matter of time before we see a return of the westerlies ....

[Djdazzle]

In fact, the uptick in the Atlantic is probably more likely in mid to late May than June.