Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Mike Poole]

UKMO and ICON could not be more different at T144, UKMO first

Of course, one is the second best performing weather model.....and the other isn't.  I think the ICON is one for the bin, this afternoon.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Test 2

Yay!!!,i cleared my cache etc,now it works

sorry for this mods,i just wanted to find out what the problem was.

Judging by that run, I wish it would have stayed broke now mate..

[Guest]

GFS 12Z massively different from its 06Z predecessor, and not in a good way. Looks dodge that the low pressure just gets hung up on the north east of Scotland and just spins away for days. Also it starts dragging in a train of moisture from the Atlantic aimed at the south. 

At T180hrs the Jet position for GFS is pretty close to ICON's output. 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Guest

[Djdazzle]

There is such a difference at 144 between GFS and UKMO, it’s probably pointless worrying about what comes after! But we will, of course!

Edited June 1, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Guest]

Any ones tries to proclaim the GFS 12Z is anything other than summer garbage can I please have some of what you're own  

[Mike Poole]

No point looking at anything beyond T144 tonight, they are all so different, here's the GFS and GEM:

UKMO the best so far, with GEM second, don't like the look of GFS or ICON much.

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Any ones tries to proclaim the GFS 12Z is anything other than summer garbage can I please have some of what you're own  

Nope, it’s not great is it. But let’s see where we are in a couple of days when the low pressure is modelled better.

[Zak M]

12z GFS hinting something a bit settled, mainly for the south at 276 but after that it is back to unsettled conditions

Edited June 1, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

UKMO holds a faint scent of promise at 144 - bit more amplification than the others and a window of opportunity. Perhaps.

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO holds a faint scent of promise at 144 - bit more amplification than the others and a window of opportunity. Perhaps.

Just a little foothold can have huge impacts further down the line. Straw-clutching perhaps, but no worse than those who are writing June off!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'm pinning all my hopes on the GEFS 12Z 240hrs tonight...

[Djdazzle]

Yes, the GFS 12z mean looks nothing like the op.

[Mike Poole]

Will be important tonight if ECM backs the UKMO, I think.

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Will be important tonight if ECM backs the UKMO, I think.

True, but probably not critical yet. May take a few more runs to iron it out.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

True, but probably not critical yet. May take a few more runs to iron it out.

Aye, but watching the ECM - it's something to do, yes?  49 year olds aren't allowed to go back to school yet, unless I'm misinterpreting government decisions!

[Djdazzle]

Don’t get me wrong - I WILL be watching too!

Edited June 1, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO and ICON could not be more different at T144, UKMO first

Of course, one is the second best performing weather model.....and the other isn't.  I think the ICON is one for the bin, this afternoon.  

Couldn't be more different? They both show low pressure to the south east of the Uk with the Azores high held out west, average temps and chance of showers on both

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Couldn't be more different? They both show low pressure to the south east of the Uk with the Azores high held out west, average temps and chance of showers on both

Look at the angle of the Azores ridge and placement of low pressure to the NW.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Djdazzle

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The GFS mean is showing a gradual change towards more settled conditions from day 10..i can't see a great deal of low pressure on that chart.. And let's face it... How unsettled is this upcoming spell gonna be.. Cooler yes... Washout... Not a chance.. Some areas are infact gonna be disappointed by the lack of rain coming up.. If this a major unsettled spell, I will eat my sun bronzer we can ride this out folks.. We have ridden a lockdown out... This is nothing in comparison.. 

[Methuselah]

So the GFS 12Z has low pressure ending-up in the Atlantic...Nothing too unpleasant, when rainfall is the #1 priority:

    

    

    

    

That ought to slow down the tumbleweed!

[Djdazzle]

Of slight interest is that the last 2 GFS op runs have had HP to our east in FI. A Scandi high on the 6z, and a Euro high on the 12z.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Couldn't be more different? They both show low pressure to the south east of the Uk with the Azores high held out west, average temps and chance of showers on both

UKMO is positively tilted, ICON negatively tilted - massive difference!

[Zak M]

The 12z GEM at 240 shows HP starting to build back in

[Tim Bland]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO is positively tilted, ICON negatively tilted - massive difference!

SO there’s a differences in tilt ...I was replying to “couldn’t be more different “. Overall the synoptic pattern Is very similar

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

SO there’s a differences in tilt ...I was replying to “couldn’t be more different “. Overall the synoptic pattern Is very similar

In terms of the possible evolution over the next couple of frames, it’s a big difference. It may look similar at a quick glance.