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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel?

gfseuw-0-246.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GEM run finishes with a low over UK, but an impressive wedge of high pressure looking to move in, it will do, it is a question of how fast...

image.thumb.jpg.a929eb754ac668b7db09a8a516308a2d.jpg

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM run finishes with a low over UK, but an impressive wedge of high pressure looking to move in, it will do, it is a question of how fast...

image.thumb.jpg.a929eb754ac668b7db09a8a516308a2d.jpg

Those sort of set ups don’t usually move quickly. Hope that’s wrong, the low would just get stuck for days on end, the high probably builds from the NW and ends in an easterly. Hoping that’s an outlier. My hopes for June are a bit depressed tonight, and will be reflected in my CET guess!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Agree strong agreement from the GFS 12Z ensembles of a long cooler spell ahead again with the risk of further northerlies. Rather bizarrely GFS shows some higher temperatures as more favourable uppers topple over the UK from the Atlantic however I am becoming concerned that it looks like there is an increasing chance we are going to get locked in on the wrong side of a block through a portion of June. The thought is thoroughly depressing especially as typing this currently eating dinner outside in the warm sun!!! Hopefully holidays will be back on the cards soon. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM run finishes with a low over UK, but an impressive wedge of high pressure looking to move in, it will do, it is a question of how fast...

image.thumb.jpg.a929eb754ac668b7db09a8a516308a2d.jpg

A slightly odd chart, but possible. General ensemble guidance through week 2 places a strong upper ridge both to the west and east of the U.K. with a trough over western and Central Europe. There is the chance that the two ridges could link up and eventually the low heights will sink and fill to bring improving conditions. However these types of sets ups have the habit of seeing areas of low pressure feed into these troughs so the risk of cool and unsettled conditions is also possible.

next weekend has the potential to be an absolute stinker....

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

We can probably stomach an unsettled spell before we warm up for the second half of June. I’d rather put my faith in somebody like @Tamara than a few model runs which are unlikely to pick up on the expected improvements. A wholly unsettled and cool June is still a very outside bet, as is a repeat of June 2019.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

We can probably stomach an unsettled spell before we warm up for the second half of June. I’d rather put my faith in somebody like @Tamara than a few model runs which are unlikely to pick up on the expected improvements. A wholly unsettled and cool June is still a very outside bet, as is a repeat of June 2019.

Agree 100%

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Look at the gefs ens for the middle of the month and esp the mean

BAM!!!

my local and London

graphe3_1000_266_30___.thumb.png.e50ead34e5e2a2b535bbe9e74d42cd4f.pnggraphe3_1000_309_144___.thumb.png.b0db86cc2fd9423f2d8a5f04d7b359cf.png

gefs mean NH view,i like

anim_ikz4.thumb.gif.19cc26ae62bdecf89c4f678b9ed731e5.gif

lets hope these keep on showing up over the coming days.

 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Just imagine if this came off...

It would be perfect after this unsettled spell!

12_270_2mtmpmax.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The GFS ensembles for Warsaw and Moscow make concerning viewing. Possible heat dome setting up over far eastern Europe. Hot patterns there are nearly always bad for us

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DR(S)NO Community Regular

DR(S)NO

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
Posted
37 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just imagine if this came off...

It would be perfect after this unsettled spell!

12_270_2mtmpmax.png

Lol Zak, I’m guessing you stay in the reddish/orange zone then?

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Alexis Seasoned

Alexis

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS ensembles for Warsaw and Moscow make concerning viewing. Possible heat dome setting up over far eastern Europe. Hot patterns there are nearly always bad for us

Poland had a very hot July last year. As did we!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T120 and T144:

image.thumb.jpg.fb197de622292e0fc6786a3a9b6182d7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ad6cb843d5c36becb88642b210f5df02.jpg

Horror show for time of year, but might be a short shock rather than prolonged pain?  

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

We still have 2 or 3 more fine and warm days before a change to cooler conditions, with some rain around. This most likely in N/NE locations.. Perhaps by day 8 the first signs of a recovery of pressure towards the West.. All is not lost, I still feel this could be only a sevaral day unsettled spell.

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-180.png

Indeed, Matt; and there could be more to come, eventually, should high pressure become re-established: the overall trajectory, of the GEFS (12Z) ensembles remains the same as before:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

Having said that, I'm nae entirely convinced by any of the models, just now...:unsure2:

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Lol Zak, I’m guessing you stay in the reddish/orange zone then?

Hahaha I didn't look at the north! Yes, I do... 

Edited by Zak M
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 216 shows HP lurking, although I suspect it won’t make it here on this run.

Give it time, things are more relaxed in summer!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, wayhay!

image.thumb.jpg.0ecd0ce73c1c5f6806f3244f5511c826.jpg

 Too many charts posted without considering the surface conditions, maybe wayhey if you like mid teens and rain in June.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Here it comes...

ECM1-216.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 Too many charts posted without considering the surface conditions, maybe wayhey if you like mid teens and rain in June.

Wayhey in the contest of current runs only.  Goodbye to the low we didn't want to stick  around....  There will be plenty of time to celebrate hot summery times, but we need to get through this spell first, I think 

T240 looks good even if it looks like a fish:

image.thumb.jpg.2bb7a0312f678794d41e3a545ea08f46.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

And at day ten,finally we see the Azores hp cell move in,a lot better than this mornings run.

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.ea7d727032a20fd9cf41090557376aff.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 Too many charts posted without considering the surface conditions, maybe wayhey if you like mid teens and rain in June.

I think he was looking more at the HP to the west. Think you may need to top up your half empty glass!

Edited by Djdazzle
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Don't know what people are seeing at days 9/10 on the ECM but there isn't an Azores high ridging in. It's a N Atlantic HP barreling about, with weak fronts moving around the top of it. 

Not a washout, but all very average. 

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