Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

30 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup dont think we done and dusted yet!!latest cfs on meteociel is atlantic high and western european trough domination throughout the next month!!most certainly dont want that to come reality!

The same CFS which was showing the opposite a week or so ago!

[Guest]

Well some positives to take from this mornings run are that including today if you're in the south you've probably still four decent days to come. Arpege has 28/29C in places on Tuesday so could be the warmest day of the year. GFS temps look hopeless, only going for a max here of 20-21C today which we've already reached, looks to be 4-5C out which is really very poor.

Further out its a real scattergun of options, I starting looking and there's so much divergence I couldn't even be bother to think about it so I'm going to go top up the tan and come back in 12hrs. 

 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well some positives to take from this mornings run are that including today if you're in the south you've probably still four decent days to come. Arpege has 28/29C in places on Tuesday so could be the warmest day of the year. GFS temps look hopeless, only going for a max here of 20-21C today which we've already reached, looks to be 4-5C out which is really very poor.

Further out its a real scattergun of options, I starting looking and there's so much divergence I couldn't even be bother to think about it so I'm going to go top up the tan and come back in 12hrs. 

 

Agree. You may as well spin a roulette wheel when trying to predict beyond Wednesday.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

42 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS and GEM not too bad.

ICON and ECM awful.

UKMO not great, but we don’t know where it will go next.

But still a high chance that the northerly will be further east. Maybe the overnight runs have overdone it?

The ECM op is awful but it's not really backed up by the mean.. I don't know why we even bother viewing these operationals, because they are completely cut off from there means.. The op is way to progressive with falling heights, I expect a recovery after a 5 day downturn..

Edited May 31, 2020 by MATT☀️

[damianslaw]

Important to look at timescales 96-120 hr timeframes, at all times.. a sharpening of a pattern at such timescales, usually points to the general direction of travel thereafter, this more so when pattern changes come into the fore.

With this in mind, the models this morning have significantly sharpened a synoptical evolution towards a northerly, with heights anchored out further west, No surprise then to see the likes of the ECM sustaining the northerly airflow for a few days thereafter -notably chilly uppers shown for the weekend. UKMO looks like heading in the same direction, GFS does for a couple of days but backs everything slightly further east.

The pivotal factor is how far west heights in the atlantic settle themselves, and the orientation of heights, a more direct northerly influence will create the classic ridge/trough scenario, with warm air advection on the west side of the heights, elongating heights in a N-S position, which would sustain the northerly for a few days,before a probable topple effect then its a case of seeing how much energy there is in the atlantic to overide them. A more eastwards pattern and its a brief northerly shot and back to the ridge dominating. The other scenario is disturbances in the flow from the NW, this would have the effect of sinking mid atlantic heights south and into the UK, but has the added risk of allowing the atlantic to ride in over the top and we end up with a westerly/north westerly pattern albeit from a source further south so not a cool one.

In the very short time, three more summery days ahead. Will we get as good a run of weather as the last 10 days this summer? Some years no..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

wherever you are today, enjoy the conditions.. Its literally glorious countrywide.. Paddling pool at the ready.. All the essentials at the ready. 

[Andy Bown]

1995 often gets mentioned as being a hot summer but wasn’t there a cool Northerly in June. I have recollections of doing A Levels with it being sunny but having seen tv forecasts showing 10c.

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

 

 

    

    

So, to sum up: one day below 15C and the chance of seeing some rain...I've seen worse!

That's 15 'GFS' C as well. Consider it is suggesting a max 2m temperature here of 20C today and we are already nudging 23C I would view the 15C with caution. I don't see anything horrific on the horizon, just a cooling down to more normal conditions.

[Djdazzle]

25 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

1995 often gets mentioned as being a hot summer but wasn’t there a cool Northerly in June. I have recollections of doing A Levels with it being sunny but having seen tv forecasts showing 10c.

There was a cool northerly spell for around 10 days in June. Cloudy and cool, although dry. I was starting to despair about the summer ahead. Then, around the 20th, the HP out west nudged across the U.K, and the rest is history!

[mushymanrob]

33 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

1995 often gets mentioned as being a hot summer but wasn’t there a cool Northerly in June. I have recollections of doing A Levels with it being sunny but having seen tv forecasts showing 10c.

Yes, 95 wasnt hot and sunny all the way, it gets its reputation mainly from an 11 odd day heatwave in early august after a patchyish summer.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Yes, 95 wasnt hot and sunny all the way, it gets its reputation mainly from an 11 odd day heatwave in early august after a patchyish summer.

Are you serious? July was one of the hottest on record and August was the hottest on record! Not to mention it was a drier summer than 76. Last 8-9 days of June were lovely too. 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, MATT said:

The ECM op is awful but it's not really backed up by the mean.. I don't know why we even bother viewing these operationals!

You’re so right Matt.. as always

Sure things are going to nose-dive compared to the current unbroken sunshine and mid 20’s c but let’s face it, most of May has been like summer (very dry and warmer than average with much higher sunshine totals than average!!) so we can’t really complain about a cooler less settled spell during early June and I’m certainly not writing off June!..sure, the first half looks mixed but still some ridging at times, at least further south but I continue to believe the second half of June will be much better, no guarantee of course..Just my opinion!!!!!!

Edited May 31, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

No signs of a return to anything like April and May on the extended ECM this morning. High pressure staying out in the Atlantic, with low pressure close by in the east. West could be best for a while.

[Djdazzle]

Signs that the unsettled spell will be more than a blip. Even GFS is ditching the quick return to settled conditions.

[Djdazzle]

IF the GFS 6z is correct, it would make a mockery of the BBC long range forecast!

Hope it’s an outlier.

[mushymanrob]

50 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Are you serious? July was one of the hottest on record and August was the hottest on record! Not to mention it was a drier summer than 76. Last 8-9 days of June were lovely too. 

patchyest in terms of it wasnt non stop heat/sun all the way.  If it wasnt for the spell in august, then it would rank alongside 06 and 13... just look at the archive charts . Drier then 76?.... really?... it matters not, 95 was hot and dry, culminating in the long settled hot spell in early august.

[Methuselah]

Well, I for one, would take the 06Z at T+333!

    

Mustn't allow One Run Syndrome to spread; it's highly contagious!

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

IF the GFS 6z is correct, it would make a mockery of the BBC long range forecast!

Hope it’s an outlier.

the bbc long range isnt worth the paper or screen, its written on.

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

the bbc long range isnt worth the paper or screen, its written on.

I agree, 

I trust the netweather one first

then Met office, (as they have the synoptic charts) , bbc is just pants anyway and dumbed down. 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

IF the GFS 6z is correct, it would make a mockery of the BBC long range forecast!

Hope it’s an outlier.

It’s not an outlier, very tight agreement of a more lengthy well below average period post the 5th June. It’s really a poor outlook after the end of the week. Some rain would be useful however getting stuck under trough is really not what we need especially as it will be easy to get locked in over us!! Actually out the 11th that’s about as tight a grouping as I’ve seen in weeks for the gfs ensembles!!

Edited May 31, 2020 by Guest

[Methuselah]

Well, the GFS 06Z certainly ends well: I'm not interested in the day-to-day detail; but, assuming the upcoming northerly to be the tPV's dying breath, the heat building over Europe gains in importance...And sub-5C uppers look about to go extinct!

    

[Man With Beard]

31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No signs of a return to anything like April and May on the extended ECM this morning. High pressure staying out in the Atlantic, with low pressure close by in the east. West could be best for a while.

It does look pretty cool at that point (D15) - however I still hold out slim hopes for something better based on cluster 2 on the D12 chart - these two clusters have been jostling to be the main cluster for a few days and, unfortunately, the trough dominated one has taken a leap into the ascendancy. 

So I think you're probably right, but not all over for mid-June just yet. 

Nearer to now, at last I think we can have certainty that the truly settled weather will disappear during Tuesday / Wednesday (North first, then south), and all areas likely to see at least showery spells by the weekend - no reprieve likely now. 

[MP-R]

This breakdown is reminding me a bit of earlier in May. Coming from the north, best chance of rain during that transition and then the hunt for rain continues despite it being rather cool. Looks like some showers for the south on Wednesday so let’s hope they’re widespread as after that it looks quite rainless.

[markw2680]

So we spend all winter predicting a cold northerly only for it to get shunted east and we end up with a really poor effort, so why is everyone panicking about a change towards the end of the week? We can’t have sunny warm weather all summer so it’s inevitable there will be some wet and cooler days.. so let’s relax and get out in the sun and enjoy it! Worry about later next week on Wednesday and see if it really is all that bad. Mmm I expect not but what do I know

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

You’re so right Matt.. as always

Sure things are going to nose-dive compared to the current unbroken sunshine and mid 20’s c but let’s face it, most of May has been like summer (very dry and warmer than average with much higher sunshine totals than average!!) so we can’t really complain about a cooler less settled spell during early June and I’m certainly not writing off June!..sure, the first half looks mixed but still some ridging at times, at least further south but I continue to believe the second half of June will be much better, no guarantee of course..Just my opinion!!!!!!

Cheers Karl.. I tell you what mate, I'm not buying into the 6z evolution... It literally at some point as all of Europe and Greenland under High Pressure, and the UK stuck under a trough... Everytime an unsettled spell approaches the GFS does what it does best... Namely blows up Low Pressure in our vicinity and keeps it there for a year.. If that was to come off it would not only make a Mockery of the beeb forecast for June, but the Met office prediction also! I have a feeling the pro guys don't take this model to seriously though. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a different prognosis come the 12z runs.... Enjoy your day..