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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's looking like there will be some very decent conditions in W/NW areas beyond day 10 also.. One thing for sure is the Atlantic is gonna have a problem breaking through. 

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-282.png

gfs-0-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Heatwave...

image.thumb.png.2dd08f191e46b3cd0b41c6e27a420b8e.png

...for Greenland

image.thumb.png.a67cdfa269e6a77e474f107d2c6fce76.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GEM evolution leads to this tonight, 

image.thumb.jpg.0c4587e45fb11654d146f8efa705239e.jpg

That was T240, we don't know where we are going now, as weather enthusiasts, as people, as beings....maybe we will watch the ECM, maybe not....does it matter anymore? 

Edit, I think the GEM evolution is a bit suspect....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM evolution leads to this tonight, 

image.thumb.jpg.0c4587e45fb11654d146f8efa705239e.jpg

That was T240, we don't know where we are going now, as weather enthusiasts, as people, as beings....maybe we will watch the ECM, maybe not....does it matter anymore? 

Edit, I think the GEM evolution is a bit suspect....

There could be a momentum lag. Or - it could be right, and the expected push from the way comes more around mid June.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM evolution leads to this tonight, 

image.thumb.jpg.0c4587e45fb11654d146f8efa705239e.jpg

That was T240, we don't know where we are going now, as weather enthusiasts, as people, as beings....maybe we will watch the ECM, maybe not....does it matter anymore? 

Edit, I think the GEM evolution is a bit suspect....

Yes Mike it does... Life goes on a mate, and we will all come out of this hopefully stronger.. I'm aware you had it tuff with this situation, and rest assured my lad you have plenty of kind and good people on here who would always be willing to help. Stay strong Mike. 

GEM still shows High Pressure beginning to feed into the West.. So we have Icon and GFS on board.. I'm hoping ECM rallys the party soon. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At least the GEFS 12Z ensembles head in the right direction (well, sort of!) after the cool snap:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

Methinks there's a long way to go, before the final destination becomes clear!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

That looks a bit extreme from ECM at T120

image.thumb.jpg.2ad3de64808c968a6bdb6b4e87d00e18.jpg

GFS and UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.da7772030dd3ef11b1c78a877ac573c9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.782f2b4fb6d0e2b8f30bc7beed949c57.jpg

One of these or another way,  we will see...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

From the north, it s coming on this run, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.93e4b4742bd478dd2afa2a9e7f01de3d.jpg

No support from the other models, so I expect it will happen then....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.gif.ad5b5fff73dca347fe929691b8b37f1d.gif

Looks more like April than the first week of June!  

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The models seem confused about what will happen after this warm and settled spell. They are all going for a blip of something unsettled but the 12z GEM looks to be the best of the bunch, with 12c uppers clipping the SE and bringing temps into the mid twenties in some places on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's also showing the northerly not as cold as some other models

12z ECM is a weird one tonight, likely an outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

I'm liking this ECM run which brings some welcome rain for my area - not that it's by any means that wet. It seems pretty out of step with the other models though, so I'm fully prepared for my hopes to be dashed on the next run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Size isn't always everything but, bloody hell, look at the size of the Azores High

image.thumb.png.cbd77f4564a157dde11a019f2f69def3.png

I know I bang on a lot about the tropical high pressure cells becoming bloated and placed in more northern latitudes but it never ceases to amaze me when I see charts like this. Although, as others have said, the evolution from 168-192 on the ECM looks strange

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It is kind of pointless watching the last few frames of the ECM, when you know, and I mean know, it has gone off the rails by T168.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Size isn't always everything but, bloody hell, look at the size of the Azores High

image.thumb.png.cbd77f4564a157dde11a019f2f69def3.png

I know I bang on a lot about the tropical high pressure cells becoming bloated and placed in more northern latitudes but it never ceases to amaze me when I see charts like this. Although, as others have said, the evolution from 168-192 on the ECM looks strange

That Azores HP is doing us no favours if it sits in that position! Negatively tilted too - bad news.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Ridging towards UK, much more evident on tonight's ECM ensemble mean, compared to recent days, here's the T240 chart:

image.thumb.jpg.b8d0743cecaddfc8532af56d2bebdfa1.jpg

Be safe everyone....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Ridging towards UK, much more evident on tonight's ECM ensemble mean, compared to recent days, here's the T240 chart:

image.thumb.jpg.b8d0743cecaddfc8532af56d2bebdfa1.jpg

Be safe everyone....

That’s this mornings 00z mean mike .

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That’s this mornings 00z mean mike .

Thanks, 2nd attempt to reply to this, you are of course correct,  it was the 0z,will post the 12z soon!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z ensemble mean,  the correct ones this time, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.1d8cba640942a3619e27889ea7f5db68.jpg

Edging towards the UK high situation! I think....

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The mean is certainly better than the op... What is it with ops this year!! I'm confident the High is getting ready invade our shores..

Enjoy your evenings, I'm off to fire up the burger bar..

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

graphe0_00_271_93___.png

graphe1_00_271_93___.png

anngut_th.jpg

Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

There’s nothing implausible about ECM 12z hopes for something significantly better will likely be seen in a little while. There’s no huge difference with GFS at day 5, you would expect ECM to do better with small synoptic features typically its GFS which overdoes lows, so I think it is interesting the opposite is true here.

A92BC499-8950-470C-A164-E1ADEC798983.thumb.png.ca617e86d750179a98a1093833036582.png59D3AFA0-A271-4DE3-8951-687F87559BAD.thumb.png.62f31288547cf6b60201a552ab34931a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Here is the problem - throughout D6 to D10, a number of runs refuse to bring the colder air all the way through the UK

graphe0_00_0_0_-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

This doesn't tell the whole story - another ECM ensemble chart for tonight shows that even if you knock out the top 10% of runs (the outliers), you still have runs left with uppers of 7C for London by next Saturday/Sunday. 

Whatever you see past Tuesday is not a done deal. However, if you want guaranteed sun/warmth, Tuesday is presently as far as you can be sure. 

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