Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Mike Poole]

26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 6z mean also supportive of a very limp northerly. It’s like winter all over again, except this time most folk will be pleased! Of more concern is that there is little or no rain after any showers this week, and even they look like being very hit-and-miss.

It is certainly possible given the model output today, that this blip may not produce much rain for many.  But given the amount we have had over the winter, that will not present a problem from a water resources point of view, the aquifers should have been pretty much full at the start of this dry spell.  

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is certainly possible given the model output today, that this blip may not produce much rain for many.  But given the amount we have had over the winter, that will not present a problem from a water resources point of view, the aquifers should have been pretty much full at the start of this dry spell.  

Yes, it’s more an issue with dry ground. Inconvenient for gardeners, but hopefully there shouldn’t be any hosepipe bans this year. If it’s like this in 2 months time, it may be a different story though.

[sheikhy]

Late to the party but 06z continues where 00z left off!!hardly any northerly and warm well into next week!!dry throughout the run

[Northern Sky]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, it’s more an issue with dry ground. Inconvenient for gardeners, but hopefully there shouldn’t be any hosepipe bans this year. If it’s like this in 2 months time, it may be a different story though.

Gardeners, farmers and nature. It's unusual to see brown grass and parched earth this early in the year. I like the countryside looking lush and green at this time but as you say hopefully the rain from over Winter should rule out hosepipe bans for now. 

If anything the GFS 06Z is even drier than the 0Z . 

[Mike Poole]

41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, it’s more an issue with dry ground. Inconvenient for gardeners, but hopefully there shouldn’t be any hosepipe bans this year. If it’s like this in 2 months time, it may be a different story though.

Yes, and that is also another positive feedback mechanism that given the spring we have had, could prove very relevant as we head into summer.  The drier the ground gets, the higher temperatures will be stoked up, bit like a kiln, meaning it won't just be urban areas that bake if this pattern really does set in for the long haul. I know the temperature record was only set last year, but I say it is a better than evens shot that is broken again!

[slater]

24 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Gardeners, farmers and nature. It's unusual to see brown grass and parched earth this early in the year. I like the countryside looking lush and green at this time but as you say hopefully the rain from over Winter should rule out hosepipe bans for now. 

If anything the GFS 06Z is even drier than the 0Z . 

Here in Mid Norfolk, last summer all the grass turned brown by early June and stayed liked it until the typical unsettled August...I was surprised how quick the green returned .

[Djdazzle]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and that is also another positive feedback mechanism that given the spring we have had, could prove very relevant as we head into summer.  The drier the ground gets, the higher temperatures will be stoked up, bit like a kiln, meaning it won't just be urban areas that bake if this pattern really does set in for the long haul. I know the temperature record was only set last year, but I say it is a better than evens shot that is broken again!

I suppose the sea temperatures must be warmer than usual too, after a mild winter and loads of spring sunshine. Also, North Africa seems to have a lot of heat, so a well directed plume will undoubtedly result in some high maxima. Pretty much a given that we will reach 90F (this one seems achievable without special synoptics.

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters for the following week fairly consistent with the last few runs - 2 of the 3 clusters see the Atlantic High nudging in again by the end of the week, possibility of inclement weather over Europe threatening the south, but essentially clusters 1 and 2 have shut out the Atlantic and should be on the warmer side. Cluster 3 is the only one suggesting westerlies but far from unsettled, perhaps a north/south split. I'd say odds current in favour of a return to summery conditions for many and in likely to be only localized rain risks. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Yes we do need rain it would be nice to get a four or five day downfall to replenish the drying agriculture but careful what you wish for as wet spells can linger for weeks if they fall into the wrong place, then you'll have something to moan about!!! Looking at models it good to see backtracks towards cold and wet have begun backing and HP quickly nosing back in. No real sign of anything flaming hot (yet) but to me it just looks like after this cooler blip it will be a return to the continuation of the pleasant weather we're seeing now (low to mid 20s)  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and that is also another positive feedback mechanism that given the spring we have had, could prove very relevant as we head into summer.  The drier the ground gets, the higher temperatures will be stoked up, bit like a kiln, meaning it won't just be urban areas that bake if this pattern really does set in for the long haul. I know the temperature record was only set last year, but I say it is a better than evens shot that is broken again!

I'm not so sure Mike.. This summer appears to be setting up completely differently to last year.. There was know duration in last year's hot spells.. We had 3 plume events dragging in exceptionally high uppers, followed by a quick breakdown.. This year seems to be setting up more like 95 and perhaps dare I say it 2018..with High Pressure areas dominating for considerable time spans. Probably meaning mid to high 20s on a regular basis. This type of set up is great if you want long warm settled spells, as opposed to the quick hot 3 day spell you tend to get with the Stly feeds. I'm already seeing similarities  with 2018...hope I ain't cursed it now... But If we are in this position come the final 3rd of June, then most definitely heading that way. 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, MATT said:

I'm not so sure Mike.. This summer appears to be setting up completely differently to last year.. There was know duration in last year's hot spells.. We had 3 plume events dragging in exceptionally high uppers, followed by a quick breakdown.. This year seems to be setting up more like 95 and perhaps dare I say it 2018..with High Pressure areas dominating for considerable time spans. Probably meaning mid to high 20s on a regular basis. This type of set up is great if you want long warm settled spells, as opposed to the quick hot 3 day spell you tend to get with the Stly feeds. I'm already seeing similarities  with 2018...hope I ain't cursed it now... But If we are in this position come the final 3rd of June, then most definitely heading that way. 

Yes. Fair point Matt.  I agree that the 2018 style Azores sourced high pressure is more likely than plumes this year, given modelling and evidence so far, but my point is the country is already primed for heatwaves in a way that it wasn't last year, because of the record breaking sunny spring.  In that scenario a 1976 style prolonged hot spell could break the record without the need for a southerly plume.  And, of course, we might get one anyway.  

One final point, in this current land of lockdown and boredom, at least we have had some weather genuinely interesting to talk about on here!  Better get back to the models though, 12z rolling soon...

[summer blizzard]

Uppers in western North Africa are nothing unusual and indeed for once Spain is enjoying something closer to 30C rather than 40C. While low soil moisture would indeed allow maximum potential I don't think there's anything abnormal enough to suggest an evens chance of the record.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just a quick one on the GFS 6z mean, it shows the improvements coming through by day 9..and pressure looks relatively high to the end of the run... What a bizarre year we are experiencing on all fronts!! 

@Mike Poole I agree with you there mate... Hopefully some Stella 12z runs..

Edited May 30, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Uppers in western North Africa are nothing unusual and indeed for once Spain is enjoying something closer to 30C rather than 40C. While low soil moisture would indeed allow maximum potential I don't think there's anything abnormal enough to suggest an evens chance of the record.

True, but there is a very long way to go, and my recollection of the 2003 record is it wasn't from a brief plume scenario, it was a long build up of heat.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Even at day 6 we still have really warm uppers on the Icon. 

Edited May 30, 2020 by MATT☀️

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nothing like a bit hype on a warm summers day... I think Icon wants to settle us down again by day 8...its being brought forward.. Usually on a saturday when a goal goes in... Its get in there  my son, or boom...

[Mike Poole]

ICON run:

Shows the unsettled spell, and the recovery, and, all importantly, this is all within the next 7 and a half days.  Will the other models agree, I think so given the morning output, the models are getting a grip on this now, and should fall into line.

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON run:

Shows the unsettled spell, and the recovery, and, all importantly, this is all within the next 7 and a half days.  Will the other models agree, I think so given the morning output, the models are getting a grip on this now, and should fall into line.

Wow!!icon keeps us pretty much in warm air throughtout and the dry weather continues

[summer blizzard]

35 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

True, but there is a very long way to go, and my recollection of the 2003 record is it wasn't from a brief plume scenario, it was a long build up of heat.

Yes, as were the 06 and 90 spells however 1990 had 17C uppers and the most perfect synoptic setup seen while the 03 and 06 events still had uppers of 19/20C.

It is still incredibly rare to get a sustained build, synoptics and uppers all at the same time. Neither 13 or 18 managed it for example.

Edited May 30, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Yes, as were the 06 and 90 spells however 1990 had 17C uppers and the most perfect synoptic setup seen while the 03 and 06 events still had uppers of 19/20C.

It is still incredibly rare to get a sustained build, synoptics and uppers all at the same time. Neither 13 or 18 managed it for example.

Yep, tends to be either a long settled spell which can still become hot (low 30's), or a do-or-die plume which can achieve mid to high 30's. 2003 was one of those which just built and built, and France / Spain really suffered.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Djdazzle]

Just adding to my last post, if a settled pattern persists for long enough and the ground is dry enough, it is still possible to push the mid 30's. This happened in 1976 and 2018.

 

Back on topic, GFS 12z 120 chart:

Looks like another decent day for most.

[sheikhy]

Good gfs again!!!ukmo gone slightly backwards compared to 00z but nothing like ecm which is good!!over to ecm!!

[Methuselah]

Almost back till Saturday, now?

    

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z to T192:

Wobble, actually quite slight, high pressure nosing back in, what's not to like?

[Djdazzle]

GFS 12z cuts off the northerly very quickly. Need to see ECM now!