Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Wonder what it would take to ruin and crumble this magnificent spell of long dry weather? Could a hurricane do it or would a hurricane enhance and boost it further in our favour?? 

[sheikhy]

50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You know, you remind me of someone....!!!!

Im his twin brother!!!!!only joking its still good old sheikhy here!!!gfs 18z still no meaningfull rainfall!!although a lot cooler from middle of next week!!

[Mike Poole]

 

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I had my sixth birthday in dec 1984 and know most of June and July 76 was in the 30s..

 

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

June 76 had a hot start. It then cooled off before hotting up for the final 8 days. There was the run of 15 32C+ days and  something like 25 consecutive days above 80F. The second half of July was a bit cooler. There was another hot spell in August.

This was the hottest summer ever, it now pretty much draws with 2018,  I think.   But in those days it was an absolute outlier, but it was coming on the back of another hot summer in 1975, and dry winter in between that caused the infamous drought.  

Even at the longest range of the GFS today , this was what on the cards in 1976:

Fast forward a couple of weeks:

We already have the Azores ridging to us this year. If anyone has any science based arguments why this won't be one of the hottest summers yet, please let us know....

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

 

This was the hottest summer ever, it now pretty much draws with 2018,  I think.   But in those days it was an absolute outlier, but it was coming on the back of another hot summer in 1975, and dry winter in between that caused the infamous drought.  

Even at the longest range of the GFS today , this was what on the cards in 1976:

Fast forward a couple of weeks:

We already have the Azores ridging to us this year. If anyone has any science based arguments why this won't be one of the hottest summers yet, please let us know....

The truth is that nobody can say, regardless of the background signals.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The truth is that nobody can say, regardless of the background signals.

Yes, lots of uncertainty, but that is what interests me, if I had to bet on which this year might follow, it is 2018 not 1976.  Split the difference re weather on the ground!!

[Mapantz]

Posts removed.

Can we get back on topic, please? 
 

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile the pub run has the high pressure back firmly in charge by T276:

Bank that!  It is what we are expecting, and the end of the unsettled incursion.  What's not to like?

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey!!!,what happened to the 12z gfs op earlier...,lack of balloon data maybe!

anyway,the 18z seems to go down the same path but look at this beauty setting up shop for the middle of the month,similar to where we are in a couple of days.

i will take this temporary blip if the subsequent outputs turn out like this

blip and you will miss it 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Don, this is the new world of persistent patterns, you saw it with winter, endless rain, and mild...glad that's over now, but now the coin is flipped, and it is constant dry weather, and in  my opinion that is not going to change any time soon, despite the models showing a cooler unsettled spell early June, that won't last, and another hot one is on the cards for summer.  Hey ho!

I think patterns have stuck around lately purely because ENSO has most bobbed a fraction either side of neutral for what seems an eternity. Very little to force pattern changes away from repeated Azores high incursions.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think patterns have stuck around lately purely because ENSO has most bobbed a fraction either side of neutral for what seems an eternity. Very little to force pattern changes away from repeated Azores high incursions.

I think there's more to it than that, CC, ENSO doesn't affect UK as much as other parts of the world, AAM does, and they are related, of course, but nothing to suggest anything is going to change in next few weeks. Eyes on La Niña causing AAM to tank, but not until August now in my opinion.  

[Yarmy]

Can’t speak for the rest of the country, but round here it’s baked dry and the latest top dog ECM suggests little relief in the near future. If this carries on we will be in Californian mega drought territory come August.

[Zak M]

18z GFS is starting to show high pressure dominating after the cold plunge

[Robbie Garrett]

23 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Can’t speak for the rest of the country, but round here it’s baked dry and the latest top dog ECM suggests little relief in the near future. If this carries on we will be in Californian mega drought territory come August.

Not particularly what you want during a Pandemic. Slightly worrying really.   Then there's the issue of when the rains come, the surface will flood again.

[sheikhy]

Well well well!!!gone is the rain on the gfs 00z for next week!!showers for a time south of england on wednesday but thats bout it!!looks warmer as well!!ukmo looks just as good!!could turn back again next run but all in all a good start this morning with the following northerly shoved slightly east as well!

[swfc]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Well well well!!!gone is the rain on the gfs 00z for next week!!showers for a time south of england on wednesday but thats bout it!!looks warmer as well!!ukmo looks just as good!!could turn back again next run but all in all a good start this morning with the following northerly shoved slightly east as well!ye

Yes could be a rogue run but given the last 8 weeks of weather etc woudnt be a suprise for the improvement to carry on today 

[Man With Beard]

Looks like a very difficult forecast towards the end of next week

You'd think for all the world, the Atlantic ridge would force a potent northerly down the UK, but this morning the UKMO sends the first disturbance south to join the Iberian trough and somehow the Atlantic ridge noses in to cut off the cold flow and let continental air in through the back door, again. You'll need more than a PhD to work out where the warm/cold, rain/sun will be based on the differing charts we see at the moment. 

[Man With Beard]

and then you get this from the ECM 

Far too much variation in charts to call the end of the week, but I doubt it will be what you can call "settled". 

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

and then you get this from the ECM 

Far too much variation in charts to call the end of the week, but I doubt it will be what you can call "settled". 

Yeh pretty bad that but not really much rain again lol!!i think it will end up further east than what ecm is showing but you never know!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh pretty bad that but not really much rain again lol!!i think it will end up further east than what ecm is showing but you never know!!

U the old shaky? new account

[Djdazzle]

These features nearly always end up further east. What a mess!

[Northern Sky]

Chasing rain really has become like chasing snow for me - always seems to fade away when the charts get into the reliable. The GEM is awful in that respect this morning and has gone from a soaking yesterday to bone dry today!

The ECM is the best of the bunch rain wise but even that's no washout. So much uncertainty in the models at the moment but the default seems to be dry weather. 

 

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Chasing rain really has become like chasing snow for me - always seems to fade away when the charts get into the reliable. The GEM is awful in that respect this morning and has gone from a soaking yesterday to bone dry today!

The ECM is the best of the bunch rain wise but even that's no washout. So much uncertainty in the models at the moment but the default seems to be dry weather. 

 

Ecm is most certainly no washout!i just checked the precipitation charts and its in the form of showers but there are not many!!and most certainly wont make up for the lack of rain so far!!

[sheikhy]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

U the old shaky? new account

Yes buddy!!!forgot my password on my other account as i clicked the "keep me signed in always button" when i first signed up which was years ago!!got a new phone the other day so had to start a fresh!!i could have clicked the forgotten password button but problem is i forgot my password to my hotmail account as well as i kept that signed in always so created a fresh email account as well!!!too many passwords to remember!!hard to keep up with em!! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yes buddy!!!forgot my password on my other account as i clicked the "keep me signed in always button" when i first signed up which was years ago!!got a new phone the other day so had to start a fresh!!i could have clicked the forgotten password button but problem is i forgot my password to my hotmail account as well as i kept that signed in always so created a fresh email account as well!!!too many passwords to remember!!hard to keep up with em!! 

haven't a clue at my password or log in! I stay logged in, or log in with facebook

[Methuselah]

Looks as if only us folks living in Danelaw will be affected by the cooler air, before the Saxons send it back into Europe:

    

    

    

    

And GEFS ensembles also show a much truncated and watered-down 'cold blast' now than was previously the case:

    

    

Good to see you back @sheikhy...Did your exclamation-mark button stop working?

PS: I don't think it's ENSO that's causing our weather-patterns to get 'stuck'; I think it's other, more local, effects caused by the ocean-atmosphere circulation-patterns trying to adjust to ever-increasing poleward heat-transport...?

Edited May 30, 2020 by General Cluster