Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[cyclonic happiness]

this prolonged spell cannot surely last?  We are being spoilt to the enth degree? 

I fear summer, we will pay the price

[sundog]

13 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

this prolonged spell cannot surely last?  We are being spoilt to the enth degree? 

I fear summer, we will pay the price

It's been a very decent /decent spring overall and I wouldnt  be surprised if we do indeed pay the price over the coming summer. Time will tell........

[Ben Sainsbury]

ECM is probably the ideal run if you want a return back to drier warmer weather. 4 or 5 days of cooler, wetter weather at most!

[mb018538]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM is probably the ideal run if you want a return back to drier warmer weather. 4 or 5 days of cooler, wetter weather at most!

ECM has barely any ppn at all. I’d expect it to be a bit of an outlier the other way to be honest. It’s pretty good.

[Mike Poole]

Business as usual resuming at T240 on ECM, so it's 10 days, TEN DAYS, and the first five are perfect summer weather anyway, it's not like being under house arrest for 2 weeks because we've unwittingly sat next to some one with COVID-19 and have no symptoms. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

this prolonged spell cannot surely last?  We are being spoilt to the enth degree? 

I fear summer, we will pay the price

Remember 76, never prolonged high temperatures but prolonged sunshine...I know we had a high of 35.9c but mainly mid 20’s if I remember

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Remember 76, never prolonged high temperatures but prolonged sunshine...I know we had a high of 35.9c but mainly mid 20’s if I remember

Only 16 consecutive days at 32C or higher?

Anywho, the GFS 12Z op is bordering on outlier status. Again!

    

    

Edited May 29, 2020 by General Cluster

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Only 16 consecutive days at 32C or higher?

Anywho, the GFS 12Z is bordering on outlier status. Again!

    

    

Sorry I was only 6’ish  years old at the time ...it was probably the mean, it seem it lol 

[Daniel*]

ECM dumps a lot of rain across a relatively narrow corridor in SE corner Wednesday into Thursday, 20mm in my neck of woods. Fingers crossed for some decent rain parched here.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Sorry I was only 6’ish  years old at the time ...it was probably the mean, it seem it lol 

No worries. I had my sixth birthday in January 1963!

[stodge]

Evening all

Is a pattern change coming or simply a blip, a mere interlude, in the general progression of summer 2020? Will those of us with allergic rhinitis be sniffing and sneezing for the next few weeks or will the weather provide some much-needed relief?

Looking into the medium term this evening and away with us to T+240 on the 12Z output suite - ECM GEM GFS OP and GFS Control:

Encouraging for those looking for a rapid return to more settled conditions but it all looks very half-hearted to this observer. ECM has moved away from its "nightmare" scenario of three nights ago to something which many will find more acceptable but this ins't a long fetch S'ly but a WNW'ly so probably quite cloudy and while warm never hot. GFS OP has the HP in the wrong place to we end up with a NW'ly. GEM keeps a slack NE'ly over most of the British Isles with fantastic weather for the Hebrides and a risk of showers elsewhere.

Oddly enough, Control ends up much better in far FI than the OP so the journey to the middle of June may well have a number of twists and turns yet.

 

[Zak M]

35 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM dumps a lot of rain across a relatively narrow corridor in SE corner Wednesday into Thursday, 20mm in my neck of woods. Fingers crossed for some decent rain parched here.

Thundery rain?

[Djdazzle]

37 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM dumps a lot of rain across a relatively narrow corridor in SE corner Wednesday into Thursday, 20mm in my neck of woods. Fingers crossed for some decent rain parched here.

No thanks!

Are the ECM precipitation charts better than GFS?

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No thanks!

Are the ECM precipitation charts better than GFS?

Yes much better resolution. As for thundery rain ECM has very little CAPE skirting south coast and that's all, mostly plain heavy dynamic rain I'd assume moving northeastward.

[Mike Poole]

Here's the CFS plots for z500 anomalies for June, I know I said that the last time I showed them was the last one, but it is worth looking at these, the last 8 runs:

Anything strike you, looking at those?  Ridging from the Azores to UK maybe, albeit favouring more northern areas first, because of what we know about the upcoming trough....potential for thunderstorms in June with that too, but the longer term a signal for a hot settled summer is sound, I think....we will see...

Edited May 29, 2020 by Mike Poole

[BlueHedgehog074]

The 12Z NAVGEM would have been a nice chart if it was Winter. Going for the Northerly to North-Westerly scenario over the UK:

Pretty chilly for early June. Personally though, not as welcome now (despite liking Northerlies), although a few days of cooler and perhaps unsettled weather wouldn’t hurt. Plants, especially the grass, begging for the wet stuff. So do feel like the Low Pressure systems could do with lobbing explosives towards the various UK rain shields and allow some wet weather to break through.

I don’t think either that looking at the NOAA  8 to 14 day 500mb chart tonight their would probably be any major washout conditions.

Though considering those large ECMWF rainfall totals someone posted above for South-Eastern UK, you couldn’t locally rule out some heavy areas of rain or showers in some places. Perhaps more so towards Eastern UK.

However, as has been covered in the thread, It does look like a few more fine and bright days to come for the UK - High Pressure close to the North-East of the UK over Scandinavia pumping out some further settled weather. And still warm too. But the Easterly breeze may make it feel a little cooler along some Eastern coasts at times. 

 

Then a chance for High Pressure to go on a party in the Atlantic out West with a possibility of some cooler, more changeable, weather occurring. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Don]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

this prolonged spell cannot surely last?  We are being spoilt to the enth degree? 

I fear summer, we will pay the price

A few years ago I would have agreed.  However, not so sure now!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

A few years ago I would have agreed.  However, not so sure now!

Yes, Don, this is the new world of persistent patterns, you saw it with winter, endless rain, and mild...glad that's over now, but now the coin is flipped, and it is constant dry weather, and in  my opinion that is not going to change any time soon, despite the models showing a cooler unsettled spell early June, that won't last, and another hot one is on the cards for summer.  Hey ho!

[stodge]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's the CFS plots for z500 anomalies for June, I know I said that the last time I showed them was the last one, but it is worth looking at these, the last 8 runs:

Anything strike you, looking at those?  Ridging from the Azores to UK maybe, albeit favouring more northern areas first, because of what we know about the upcoming trough....potential for thunderstorms in June with that too, but the longer term a signal for a hot settled summer is sound, I think....we will see...

Not sure I'm as convinced. There seems a strong signal for lower heights over NW Europe which would suggest more unsettled conditions with thundery showers or rain moving up from the south. I agree for Scotland and the north it looks much better and I'm certainly seeing nothing cold or cool - warm, perhaps very warm and often humid in the south perhaps.

We'll see - the CFS anomaly for January next year may interest a few:

With our luck we'll get heights over Greenland and a west-based negative NAO through December and January !!

[sheikhy]

18z icon out!!mainly dry again and warmer air across england at 120 hours with a shortwave further west and south of ireland compared to the 12z!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Tell you what.. Icon ain't to bad out till next Thursday, and even at that stage it's very warm... Ntly!! What Ntly... They ain't even cold in Winter..

If your having a barbi this weekend, do take care.. The couple a few doors up from me set fire to there fence tonight with one.. And here was me thinking that was a lovely smell of Burgers, when infact it was Wood..

Edited May 29, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Don]

27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Don, this is the new world of persistent patterns, you saw it with winter, endless rain, and mild...glad that's over now, but now the coin is flipped, and it is constant dry weather, and in  my opinion that is not going to change any time soon, despite the models showing a cooler unsettled spell early June, that won't last, and another hot one is on the cards for summer.  Hey ho!

Lets just hope we can hit the jackpot for once and lock into a cold pattern next winter!  If that's the case, this summer can be as hot as it likes!

Edited May 29, 2020 by Don

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

18z icon out!!mainly dry again and warmer air across england at 120 hours with a shortwave further west and south of ireland compared to the 12z!!

You know, you remind me of someone....!!!!

[Guest]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

No worries. I had my sixth birthday in January 1963!

I had my sixth birthday in dec 1984 and know most of June and July 76 was in the 30s..

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I had my sixth birthday in dec 1984 and know most of June and July 76 was in the 30s..

June 76 had a hot start. It then cooled off before hotting up for the final 8 days. There was the run of 15 32C+ days and  something like 25 consecutive days above 80F. The second half of July was a bit cooler. There was another hot spell in August.