Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[sheikhy]

Not the best of starts this morning gota say!!ecm and especially ukmo less settled compared to yesterday much earlier on!!differences as early as 96 hours!!gfs looks settled today but i just dont have much trust in that model anymore!!in terms of rainfall the ukmo looks to have the most but ecm and gfs dry  for most of the run so thats not good news for gardeners!!still warm for next 6 days though!!

[CheesepuffScott]

I don’t think the synoptics are the same but it reminds me of the nice start to June last year (sunny and warm for the first 2/3 days) before turning wet and cool, dire and only in the low teens on 10th/11th/13th here.. with temperatures not reaching 20°C again IMBY until the 17th. Hoping anything less settled doesn’t stick too long, or it’s not a washout.

Edited May 29, 2020 by CheesepuffScott

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

I’m  for this chart to verify...absolutely stunning!!!!

That would certainly put an end to the June 13th enigma.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The conditions look good for the next 5 days, we do experience a breakdown beyond this point.. Most definitely much cooler with some rain around, still not sure how much and where and when.. ECM goes on to show signs of recovery by day 10...High Pressure looks to be building in again.. Its usually not a good sign to see everything out at day 10..but I feel this Summer could be different.. Enjoy the grand weather we have this Weekend folks.

Edited May 29, 2020 by MATT☀️

[jules216]

Seasonals have completely missed out on this huge cold pool to the East and NE,they have such a warm bias that gets exposed from time to time,there is hope they will once miss out on it in winter aka January 2017

[mb018538]

Just seen this on the BBC weather pages today about the dry and sunny spring. Dry and warm to continue to dominate? Do they have access to a secret model run that is mere mortals and the Met office don’t? What a strange statement to put out.

[Guest]

Hard to grasp given the current conditions that we'll likely be entering the second half of June with potentially a notable negative anomaly on the CET. I'm hoping the tropical disturbance potentially forming in the mid-Atlantic might shake things up a little, if not have to hope high pressure topples over us. Either way with a large trough over central Europe its going to take a decent period of time everything to warm back up again.    

[Djdazzle]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just seen this on the BBC weather pages today about the dry and sunny spring. Dry and warm to continue to dominate? Do they have access to a secret model run that is mere mortals and the Met office don’t? What a strange statement to put out.

Simple explanation : they are useless. Amazing to think that we had a better quality of forecast in the 90s.

Edited May 29, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Met4Cast]

50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just seen this on the BBC weather pages today about the dry and sunny spring. Dry and warm to continue to dominate? Do they have access to a secret model run that is mere mortals and the Met office don’t? What a strange statement to put out.

Sounds about right to me?

The pattern will relax slightly next week & it'll turn cooler, perhaps showery at times from the north but certainly nothing on the models to suggest a washout or anything other than a continuation of below average rainfall. The EC46 has the UK/NW Europe under high pressure until the end of the run with a Scandi > Atlantic high combination. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

The downgrade of the cool spell begins. High looks a lot stronger out west to me. Just more of a 1 day blip. But could all change by this evening. FI IS DEFO FROM MONDAY NEXT WEEK. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed pic

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just checked short ensemble(can you believe it) the op is a cold outlier even with its downgrade of the cool spell from the 00z. Mean goes back above +5 850hap after the 4th June. A lot more runs needed I tell thee. 

[Paceyboy]

 

10 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Just checked short ensemble(can you believe it) the op is a cold outlier even with its downgrade of the cool spell from the 00z. Mean goes back above +5 850hap after the 4th June. A lot more runs needed I tell thee. 

Again like my earlier post people not really looking at the broad spectrum outputs to see that certain operationals are the only ones shown cold unsettled whereas more muggy unsettled may be the reality (low pressure bringing drift of above average airmass from the east)

NB. My preference is for dry hot weather however if we must have an unsettled spell it shouldnt have to be bone chilling northeasterlies does my head in!

Edited May 29, 2020 by Paceyboy

[Frosty.]

If I was a betting man (which I’m not!)...I would bet on a much cooler plunge from the north going by this run from the ECM 0z ensemble mean..but not only this run..also from the Gfs / Ecm 0z op and Gefs 0z mean!...and yesterday’s output too!..hope it doesn’t last long and hope we see a return to the current glorious conditions when it ends..Amen!

 

 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

53 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Sounds about right to me?

The pattern will relax slightly next week & it'll turn cooler, perhaps showery at times from the north but certainly nothing on the models to suggest a washout or anything other than a continuation of below average rainfall. The EC46 has the UK/NW Europe under high pressure until the end of the run with a Scandi > Atlantic high combination. 

I’ll see. I remain sceptical for the moment that June will continue where April and May have blazed a trail. Time well tell!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Simple explanation : they are useless. Amazing to think that we had a better quality of forecast in the 90s.

I couldn't disagree more mate.. When all the talk was of a severe Winter the other year.. Met office included.. They were about the only organisation playing it down! And I think ec46 tends to agree with that scenario... Most likely Glosea also. 

[Tamara]

On 27/05/2020 at 14:03, Tamara said:

NWP will be anticipating the wind-flow inertia switch at this time, but as previously, they may over-egg the fall in momentum budget tendency based on global overall parity of momentum. This means they may either overdo the degree of retrogression/ fall of pressure close to the UK and/or the time period any such indicated switch of pattern lasts.

As long as heat content across the tropics as a whole, and irrespective of the cooling in the Pacific, remains anomalously warm, this is conducive to further downstream summertime sub tropical ridging and the upstream pattern allowing the ridging to adjust back towards Western Europe.

As a brief update, this is still the case    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

         

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing

 

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

         

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing

 

Yeah..and the relative members cfsv2 index reflective of other bystanding outs..of a quick return to HP domination (of sorts) thereafter...GO

so a blip....and even that has *somewhat* resolve for complete fruition atm...

 

[Djdazzle]

31 minutes ago, MATT said:

I couldn't disagree more mate.. When all the talk was of a severe Winter the other year.. Met office included.. They were about the only organisation playing it down! And I think ec46 tends to agree with that scenario... Most likely Glosea also. 

Maybe I was a bit harsh, and I’m not disagreeing with the long term prognosis. It’s just that they put out these headlines which people then take as gospel!

[Zak M]

GEFS 06z perturbation 7

Edited May 29, 2020 by Zak M

[BlueHedgehog074]

40 minutes ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

         

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing

 

Great post Tamara!

(Thought it might be worth pointing out that the EC weekly chart you posted is from 2 runs ago. At least according to a message we’ve had). 

I always feel so horrible when I point things  out though as I always feel like I’m being rude or something. Sorry

[Northwest NI]

13 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Great post Tamara!

(Thought it might be worth pointing out that the EC weekly chart you posted is from 2 runs ago. At least according to a message we’ve had). 

I always feel so horrible when I point things  out though as I always feel like I’m being rude or something. Sorry

How rude

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

GEFS 06z perturbation 7

I’d buy that for a dollar..or at least 50-cent!..anyway, some kind of bounce back from the upcoming cool plunge shown on the 0z and to a lesser extent 6z output is quite logical when you think about it!!

Edited May 29, 2020 by JON SNOW

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

         

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing

 

Thanks for the update Tamara

So good to see you posting again ..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Tamara you are like a nurse, always good at numbing headaches and pains that these model runs create. 
. So yes i feel this is may just be a short lived cool blip after all. Blink and you'll miss it . 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Tamara you are like a nurse, always good at numbing headaches and pains that these model runs create. 
. So yes i feel this is may just be a short lived cool blip after all. Blink and you'll miss it . 

She’s worked wonders on you it seems; the other day you were full of doom!

Edited May 29, 2020 by Djdazzle