Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Frost HoIIow]

42 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That's the whole point- the original poster was suggesting there were similarities to 2012 and that this year was going to descend into something similar in June. 

He or she could be right or they could be wrong. I wouldn't make that prediction myself but at the same time won't slap someone down for it. But the ignore function is there, if it's still available, if people get wound up. It's looking warm & settled in the reliable though.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I wonder if the CFS is onto something! I've noticed Exeter are saying the 2nd half of June is more likely to be warmer and drier than average in the South.. CFS tends to agree, and looks glorious for the final 3rd..will be keeping an eye on this model at range, sometimes it's onto something... Others... Its way out.. Good to see either way.. 

Anyway that's enough of me blabbing... Enjoy the sun if you can, it's glorious out there folks..

Edited May 28, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Guest]

No doubting the GFS 06z output is really poor. The ops run post the 4th June is one of the better outcomes within the ensembles which now almost universally support a very rapid decline in temps which struggle at times to reach double figures at the end of next week. Can’t imagine what some of the colder ensemble members look like. Could do with something tropical to budge that high over a bit as it looks like it fancies staying in the mid Atlantic for a while

[Frosty.]

Only got 1 more post left today so would be a shame to waste it!!!!!!!...anyway, looking at the GEFS 6z some sort of cool plunge is the form horse beyond the next 7 days or so but there is hope that a good warm up could occur towards mid June..my message is, enjoy this beautiful summery late spring weather because it looks like a change to cooler & more changeable ( by definition unsettled) will follow..for a time at least!

 

 

[MP-R]

It would be fitting for a significant northerly to interrupt the fine and settled outlook. It happened in late March, again on Easter Monday, and most notably in May. Round 4? 

Although the frequency of summer wavelengths later in June is erratic at best, earlier June often still behaves like the spring months synoptically so a northerly isn’t out of the question.

My expectation is that if it stays a straight northerly, there’ll be more input from high pressure than is currently showing and it’ll quickly topple. Or, if a low forms, winds will veer more northwesterly. 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No doubting the GFS 06z output is really poor. The ops run post the 4th June is one of the better outcomes within the ensembles which now almost universally support a very rapid decline in temps which struggle at times to reach double figures at the end of next week. Can’t imagine what some of the colder ensemble members look like. Could do with something tropical to budge that high over a bit as it looks like it fancies staying in the mid Atlantic for a while

Now that's an exaggeration, Alderc: it mightn't be the best synoptic pattern of this spring (it does indicate a few days having below-average temperatures) but it's nae all that bad:

    

    

But, I guess, if you expect 50C maxes, day in and day out, you might have to wait a wee while?

[MKN]

Seen the words Cold plunge, Cool, Changeable and unsettled. Yet ive just viewed the GFS and barring a blip next week its largely high pressure dominated throughout. We lose some of the warmth we have right now Thurs through till Sat but places in the South would probably see a return to high teens low twenties from Sunday onwards with plenty of sunshine. And just to add that blip is in the form of a North Easterly. How many times when we see them a week out do they not materialise in winter months. The same can happen during summer to so it may remain warmer/drier by the time it comes round.

[Daniel*]

32 minutes ago, MKN said:

Seen the words Cold plunge, Cool, Changeable and unsettled. Yet ive just viewed the GFS and barring a blip next week its largely high pressure dominated throughout. We lose some of the warmth we have right now Thurs through till Sat but places in the South would probably see a return to high teens low twenties from Sunday onwards with plenty of sunshine. And just to add that blip is in the form of a North Easterly. How many times when we see them a week out do they not materialise in winter months. The same can happen during summer to so it may remain warmer/drier by the time it comes round.

It’s not really high pressure in between ‘col’ which supports showery weather. There’s a large different between winter and summer state no boisterous Atlantic and no PV. GFS 06z looks extremely poor for warm weather going into early June, so I think your interpretation is a bit wrong there. But, it is just one run nonetheless the trend is strengthening further it may be a few weeks till we see notable warmth again.

[mb018538]

No signs (at the moment) of anything on the warm to hot side in the ECM ensembles:



Right out to day 16 it has the high sat out to the west, which would allow some cooler air to spill over the top. Cluster 3 is full on unsettled. A lot can, and will, change before then.

[Djdazzle]

There is nothing to suggest this will be a long term change. It may be cooler and a bit more unsettled, but I think we will recover just after mid June.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon brings something a bit more unsettled beyond day 5..what I have noticed is those uppers are less cold than the 6z runs.. If anything its warming up again come day 8..this upcoming spell is certainly not a write off, but a chance to give the reservoirs a top up.. 

[Zak M]

12z UKMO @120

Good start...

[sheikhy]

Pretty good ukmo and gfs so far!!drier gfs again between 120 and 144 hours!!few showers in the south for a time but still warm and sunny up to 144 hours!!got this feeling the northerly gona get flattened closer to the time and we gona end up back to square one again!!whatever happens no rain it seems for sometime even if it does turn cooler!!

[NorthernRab]

Very unusual for me to cheer the downgrade over a northerly, but there's a significant move away from the potency of any incursion between the 6z and the 12z.

6z

12z

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty good ukmo and gfs so far!!drier gfs again between 120 and 144 hours!!few showers in the south for a time but still warm and sunny up to 144 hours!!got this feeling the northerly gona get flattened closer to the time and we gona end up back to square one again!!whatever happens no rain it seems for sometime even if it does turn cooler!!

Are we seeing another run? It’s utterly abysmal next Wednesday!

Very evocative to June 10th 2019 this was a big washout, 40mm of rain fell in S/SE England I remember right.

 

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Very unusual for me to cheer the downgrade over a northerly, but there's a significant move away from the potency of any incursion between the 6z and the 12z.

6z

12z

Yup most certainly!!whoever wants that northerly to come reality will be dissapointed maybe!!regardless there is no rainfall and i think thats what most people want for their gardens!!

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Are we seeing another run? It’s utterly abysmal next Wednesday!

Very evocative to June 10th 2019 this was a big washout, 40mm of rain fell in S/SE England I remember right.

 

Nope u aint and its these small details people miss out on!!gfs 06z had more of a low pressure influence!!what are the chances that we see more higher pressure come the time!!big ecm this evening!

[Ben Sainsbury]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Are we seeing another run? It’s utterly abysmal next Wednesday!

Very evocative to June 10th 2019 this was a big washout, 40mm of rain fell in S/SE England I remember right.

 

Not quite as abysmal as it appears since the GFS has a bias on over-egging precipitation due to resolution, also the rain shown will most likely be in the form of showers and/or thunderstorms. So it definitely won't be a washout for the majority of areas but will be a cloudy day regardless.

[Djdazzle]

GFS precipitation charts are as much use as a chocolate fireguard! Even in the reliable timeframe they are pretty naff.

[Methuselah]

Is that a 'potent northerly' I see there at Day 10?

    

Aaaannnddd, do I, going by other posts, detect a slight whiff of virtual petrichor?

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Not quite as abysmal as it appears since the GFS has a bias on over-egging precipitation due to resolution, also the rain shown will most likely be in the form of showers and/or thunderstorms. So it definitely won't be a washout for the majority of areas but will be a cloudy day regardless.

It’s a wavering weather front... there would be longer spells of rain and quite a lot of rain in SE if that turns out. Very poor, I doubt there would be any thunderstorms. It’s over egging 2m temps that’s for sure.

[Ben Sainsbury]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s a wavering weather front... there would be longer spells of rain and quite a lot of rain in SE if that turns out. Very poor, I doubt there would be any thunderstorms. It’s over egging 2m temps that’s for sure.

Can't say I agree with you for the most part unfortunately, but there we have it, understand your take on it though. The low pressure system appears to become shallower through the day and since it's not that deep in the first place then the fronts won't be particularly active. Coupled with a warmish flow off the near-continent along with I feel like we could see a few weakly-electrified storms. Can agree however on the 2m temps but then again this is a week away so looking into the details is quite unnecessary.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mike Poole]

Looking across the models at T144, we so far have two scenarios, first from ICON and GEM:

In this scenario, the high retreats sufficiently that quite an unsettled spell results coming from a northerly direction.  Compare UKMO and GFS:

Here, the ridge remains sufficiently present to block off a very unsettled picture developing.  I'm slightly more persuaded by this evolution at T144, but both are definitely possible at this stage, interesting to see which way ECM goes...

[Mike Poole]

Looking at life after this brief or otherwise unsettled incursion, the second half of the GFS is actually what I'm expecting to see in terms of the bounce back, given the background signals re AAM and SSTs...

Need to get the T144 situation resolved first though!

Edited May 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[stodge]

Evening all

A real sense yesterday of enjoying the next few glorious days with a clear decline later next week to something much less pleasant.

Where are we this evening? Let;s roll forward just one week so T+168 on the 12Z:

That's GEM, GFS Control and GFS OP.

Not much to get excited about if you want heat - GEM is just plain awful and while the GFS runs are slightly better that's only by degree. 

To be fair, the GFS OP is better in FI finally buiding the ridge across northern Britain to Scandinavia though as that declines the shallow European trough is wating to spread warm thundery conditions across the south. Control goes in a different direction ending with the HP to the south west though not well oriented.

As for ECM, the morning's chart showed a vicious but brief N'ly and illustrated the passage of the LP is vital. IF it misses the UK and then heads ESE toward Denmark and the North Sea the net effect is still far from pleasant.