Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Frost HoIIow]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

One of the most dramatic posts I've ever read on this forum and that's saying something. 2018 wasn't warm all the way through by any means.

I distinctly remember a much cooler spell around the middle of June in 2018. 

This spring has been totally different to 2012 with very few parallels- so how you've come up with that comparison I have no idea.

Are you sure? March 2012 was one of the warmest on record if not the warmest in some areas. I remember it being completely bonkers with people in shorts & t-shirts. May was also good especially the 2nd half being stunning. It was Spring 2013 that was poor - chilly throughout with virtually no warmth.

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst the trend is for pressure to drop, its a slow and slack process and it will be a question just how much troughing the UK actually gets. 

Also remember June 2019 started poor with wet weather and Greenland heights, the 2nd half of the month bought in that very warm spell which actually led to uppers of 25C hitting the UK! Of course ground temperatures was tempered by the easterly breeze off the sea but it shows how weather patterns can change quickly. 

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Are you sure? March 2012 was one of the warmest on record if not the warmest in some areas. I remember it being completely bonkers with people in shorts & t-shirts. May was also good especially the 2nd half being stunning. It was Spring 2013 that was poor - chilly throughout with virtually no warmth.

There are very few parallels with 2012- April was a cold and very wet month. April this year and 2012 are basically total opposites.

The March spell, while exceptional, was actually fairly brief. And the May warm spell towards the end of the month rescued what had been a cold month up to that point.

At the mid point of May 2012 I remember comparisons were being made with 1996 due to the lack of warmth.

There was nothing like the high pressure dominance we've seen so far this spring and it was far, far wetter. There was also no consistent warmth as we've seen this year so far.

[Frosty.]

The remarkable FI cold plunge (especially northern u k) with snow for the higher hills / mountains in Scotland shown on the Gfs 0z operational is strongly supported by the ensembles as the mean shows and the  u k does become a slow moving trough magnet for a time with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers but the general improvement later in the run is also well supported...but that’s all well into the future, there is still a lot of very summery / settled / warm / very warm weather to enjoy before then for the rest of this week into early next week!

 

[mb018538]

UKMO and ECM holding the tide back until the middle of next week. GFS turns more unsettled by the weeks end, but is again at the bottom of the ensembles so probably a bit harsh.

[mb018538]

Cold end to the ecm - but not disastrous. The low is far enough out of the way to prevent a washout, so just chilly instead. 850s at 0 to -5, very unusual for June!

 

For people worrying about a 2019 repeat....it doesn't look the same. At all.

Edited May 28, 2020 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Good morning, folks.

It now looks like, by this time next week, we'll all be either already in, or soon to be in, a much cooler weather-pattern, with daily maxima in the region of 14-17C:

    

Slow-moving heavy, thundery showers?

    

But, by Day 16, Elvis has left the building!

    

And the 00Z op looks quite typical, if a tad on the cooler side of the ensemble:

    

    

Can't see where any much-needed appreciable rainfall is going to come from, however.

[sheikhy]

Dry weather continues till the end on the 00s!!18z went crazy early  on once again!!ukmo big improvement at 144 hours with a renewed ridge of high pressure plonking itself over the uk again!!northerly pushing east again?

[Leo97t]

Icon 06z is actually very different to the 00z

 

[Faronstream]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Dry weather continues till the end on the 00s!!18z went crazy early  on once again!!ukmo big improvement at 144 hours with a renewed ridge of high pressure plonking itself over the uk again!!northerly pushing east again?

ECM 0Z half-long range is slightly colder than yesterdays 12Z and same low over scandi, also it's good mentioning which model you are reffering to

[Frosty.]

I think it’s fair to say the ECM 0z op is on the same page ( or at least a similar page) as the Gfs / Gefs 0z regarding the unseasonably cool plunge but since we are talking a week away + there is time for modification in intensity / longevity and to be honest, who cares about the unreliable timeframe?.. Ok..everybody screams.. I care!!..stuff that.. the reliable looks Epic..and it ain’t even summer yet!!!!

Edited May 28, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The icon 6z seemed to be heading in a different direction to the 0z..that shallow low coming into play around the same time frame, seems to be missing... Probably sums up the current uncertainty... I said a couple of days ago, this won't be ironed out til the end of the week!! Could be the weekend at this rate. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Methuselah]

Looks like next Monday has STONKER written all over it!

    

And so does Tuesday!

    

Edited May 28, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

Rubbish GFS 6z - starts turning unsettled at day 5/6, much quicker than all the other models. Ignored it after then!

[Djdazzle]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Rubbish GFS 6z - starts turning unsettled at day 5/6, much quicker than all the other models. Ignored it after then!

What’s the betting it’s yet another outlier?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Rubbish GFS 6z - starts turning unsettled at day 5/6, much quicker than all the other models. Ignored it after then!

Fear not its building Heights back around day 10..i think this model requires bipolar drugs.. 

Lord only knows where this model is heading beyond day 10... It doesnt seem to know itself.. There's another 10 minutes of me life I won't get back.. I'll wait for the mean..

Edited May 28, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Frost HoIIow]

4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

There are very few parallels with 2012- April was a cold and very wet month. April this year and 2012 are basically total opposites.

The March spell, while exceptional, was actually fairly brief. And the May warm spell towards the end of the month rescued what had been a cold month up to that point.

At the mid point of May 2012 I remember comparisons were being made with 1996 due to the lack of warmth.

There was nothing like the high pressure dominance we've seen so far this spring and it was far, far wetter. There was also no consistent warmth as we've seen this year so far.

You can't compare this Spring to 2012 because this year has been quite exceptional. But overall 2012 certainly wasn't as bad as you are making out. Admitedly April wasn't great but 2 out of 3 Spring months with good warmth & sunshine isn't to be sniffed at. Could be a lot worse. Like 2013.

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

You can't compare this Spring to 2012 because this year has been quite exceptional. But overall 2012 certainly wasn't as bad as you are making out. Admitedly April wasn't great but 2 out of 3 Spring months with good warmth & sunshine isn't to be sniffed at. Could be a lot worse. Like 2013.

That's the whole point- the original poster was suggesting there were similarities to 2012 and that this year was going to descend into something similar in June. My whole point was that you can't possibly compare this year so far to 2012 as the springs are polar opposites in many ways. I think our memories of spring 2012 are rather different- April was one of the worst months I can remember and May was mostly cool and unpleasant until the final third of the month- it certainly wasn't a warm month in its entirety.

That said, the March spell was very memorable indeed- such a shame possibly the worst April in living memory followed it.

[sheikhy]

Noticed last few days gfs 18z and 06z seem to be the most unsettled runs and struggling with that icelandic low!!!expect a slightly more settled 12z maybe?

[carinthian]

The chart below for the last day of Spring months continues to show a rather cool and disappointing picture for much of Eastern/Central Europe including the Alpine Region of Austria. Total lack of sunshine and warmth over here for quite sometime. Even this morning snow mixed in the rain at 1650m. Seems so far, the warmth and sun this past few months reserved for you special folk in the British Isles. Nice to see some heat transferring up the west side into Scotland these coming few days. Enjoy ( while it lasts ) !

C

Edited May 28, 2020 by carinthian

[Frosty.]

No beating about / around the bush, the ECM 0z ensemble mean is also strongly supportive of a much cooler Northerly plunge in the extended range as per the Gfs / Ecm 0z op / Gefs 0z mean...don’t shoot the messenger, it’s only what the latest models show!!!

Edited May 28, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Metwatch]

i've noticed, ex storm Bertha could indirectly cause a northerly plunge maybe next thursday or friday and turn things unsettled. However thats unlikely for now i think.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Jacky

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That's the whole point- the original poster was suggesting there were similarities to 2012 and that this year was going to descend into something similar in June. My whole point was that you can't possibly compare this year so far to 2012 as the springs are polar opposites in many ways. I think our memories of spring 2012 are rather different- April was one of the worst months I can remember and May was mostly cool and unpleasant until the final third of the month- it certainly wasn't a warm month in its entirety.

That said, the March spell was very memorable indeed- such a shame possibly the worst April in living memory followed it.

I can think of one similarity: Spring 2012, just like all other springs, had precisely 92 days in it. And, boy, did I have to wrack my brain for that particular pearl of wisdom!

And, on Day 16 (yes, I know!) the 06Z couldn't be more different to 2012:

    

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by General Cluster

[Zak M]

Cold plunge is unfortunately looking likely now, unless there is a big shift east which could happen

N Scotland could just clip -6c uppers

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Cold plunge is unfortunately looking likely now, unless there is a big shift east which could happen

N Scotland could just clip -6c uppers

That would be an achievement in January Zak.. The mean does support a cooler plunge, but nothing going forward to suggest it will last very long. The control completely lost the plot.. The mean recovers also.. And I'm still not seeing much Atlantic mobility moving forward. I'm also still not convinced in the direction of travel we are heading in the mid term.

Edited May 28, 2020 by MATT☀️