Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Could we be seeing some flexing from the High out West, either way it's still lookin pretty good. 

[Allseasons-Si]

And bang!!! the dirt is gone...

192

i like this run a lot.

 

[mb018538]

ECM holds the warmer air in place throughout. Driest May on record isn’t far off now. 

[Djdazzle]

With a tiny bit of tweaking, this run could lead to a hot pattern, although on this run it probably won’t. Such fine margins.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

With a tiny bit of tweaking, this run could lead to a hot pattern, although on this run it probably won’t. Such fine margins.

Yes, I agree, I think the models might be telling a different story re the period currently in FI in as little as 2 days.  I'm taking a break from discussing the models in detail today, trying to do other things, to cope with the lockdown, have a good evening everyone. 

[Djdazzle]

Just highlights the fact that the transition to a cooler and unsettled pattern is not a done deal.

[shaky]

Aaannd anything unsettled virtually non existent now especially if u go according to ecm!even the embarrassing gfs does a u turn from the wet 06z!!

[Guest]

Seems like a decent set of results flicking through the 12'z, can't find any real horror shows before T+192hrs, maybe the UKMO looking most threatening @ T+144 with the trough ready to jump in a bit earlier than the rest. Clearly there's a background signal for the Azores high to link up with some Greeny heights at some point however any outcome is far from decided and it doesn't always lead to poor conditions over the UK. 

Have to say GFS temps look way off tomorrow, they rise in line with other models to 09Z to around 22C, then just stop with the exception of London which makes it to 24C @ 12Z. everywhere else stays low 20's while all the others have a pretty large area over 25C in the south west. 

BTW - Arpege has a tiny spot in NE Scot on Friday afternoon @ 29C.....although I don't believe there's any official weather stations there!

[MKN]

24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Seems like a decent set of results flicking through the 12'z, can't find any real horror shows before T+192hrs, maybe the UKMO looking most threatening @ T+144 with the trough ready to jump in a bit earlier than the rest. Clearly there's a background signal for the Azores high to link up with some Greeny heights at some point however any outcome is far from decided and it doesn't always lead to poor conditions over the UK. 

Have to say GFS temps look way off tomorrow, they rise in line with other models to 09Z to around 22C, then just stop with the exception of London which makes it to 24C @ 12Z. everywhere else stays low 20's while all the others have a pretty large area over 25C in the south west. 

BTW - Arpege has a tiny spot in NE Scot on Friday afternoon @ 29C.....although I don't believe there's any official weather stations there!

Not official but the owner of highlands and islands weather facebook page has a big network of decent weather stations so keep an eye on that

[stodge]

Evening all

Growing signs for an easing of the current settled conditions as we move further into June. 

Looking at four main model output at T+240:

So that's 12Z ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control

All keep the main cell of HP too far west and not well oriented to throw a meaningful ridge across the British Isles so the trough squeezes in from the north and east and introduces a much cooler air flow from the North or North West. The ECM is slowest of these to make the change and looks 24-36 hours "behind" GEM in its evolution but the net effect is the same. The extent of the new Scandinavian trough varies across the models.

Further into FI, GFS OP continues its theme of many days of moving the HP up toward Greenland and Iceland and even Control keeps heights to the north. 

I know many think we will have a fine and warm June but I'm far from convinced - the first half of the month looks a typical "flaming June" with plenty of rain and perhaps some quite cool conditions in marked contrast to what we are experiencing now and have done for several weeks.

[Man With Beard]

ECM tonight wants to keep the warmth right the way through to next Thursday for all, and even into next Friday in the south.

The warmth is pretty solid throughout in western areas, where for inland areas maximums of between 25C and 28C are likely day on day (yes I'm adding a couple of degrees onto raw temps   ) - the east sees the warmth tempered at the end of the week for a couple of days but then joins back in with the mid twenties afterwards (inland areas). Scotland likely to be at its warmest/hottest at the end of this week with the high twenties possible in favoured spots, but staying above average until the very end of next week.

Next to no rain to speak of for England/Wales

However - the ECM solution looks pretty much the best case scenario to keep things very warm and sunny throughout. It doesn't look that robust a set-up next week, so wouldn't be surprised to see a change, but it's certainly a strong possibility.

[viking_smb]

5 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Growing signs for an easing of the current settled conditions as we move further into June. 

Looking at four main model output at T+240:

So that's 12Z ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control

All keep the main cell of HP too far west and not well oriented to throw a meaningful ridge across the British Isles so the trough squeezes in from the north and east and introduces a much cooler air flow from the North or North West. The ECM is slowest of these to make the change and looks 24-36 hours "behind" GEM in its evolution but the net effect is the same. The extent of the new Scandinavian trough varies across the models.

Further into FI, GFS OP continues its theme of many days of moving the HP up toward Greenland and Iceland and even Control keeps heights to the north. 

I know many think we will have a fine and warm June but I'm far from convinced - the first half of the month looks a typical "flaming June" with plenty of rain and perhaps some quite cool conditions in marked contrast to what we are experiencing now and have done for several weeks.

hope so, i'm not a fan of this heat. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM mean still looks good folks up until day ten,but that is ten days away and i am certainly not worried at all yet.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

hope so, i'm not a fan of this heat. 

Its not even that warm and the air is incredibly dry, DP's are mostly in single figures. I know we are all different but always amazes me people struggle in just a couple of degrees warmer than room temperature. 

[Portsmouth Sun]

13 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

hope so, i'm not a fan of this heat. 

As it is not even hot, how will you cope in the summer?    

The weather looks set fair for the next 5 or six days, then the possibility of some showery weather with a slight cooling of temps. Obviously FI is not worth talking about as it's as reliable as a tabloid newspaper.  All in all a very good spell of spring weather. 

[viking_smb]

Just now, Portsmouth Sun said:

As it is not even hot, how will you cope in the summer?    

The weather looks set fair for the next 5 or six days, then the possibility of some showery weather with a slight cooling of temps. Obviously FI is not worth talking about as it's as reliable as a tabloid newspaper.  All in all a very good spell of spring weather. 

I do cope in summer and I enjoy the summer esp when on the water, just hate humidity and storms matey, 

[NorthernRab]

58 minutes ago, Alderc said:

BTW - Arpege has a tiny spot in NE Scot on Friday afternoon @ 29C.....although I don't believe there's any official weather stations there!

The Highlands and the North East (the Scottish one) quite often do very well in these set-ups, ARPEGE has 28'C for my neck of the woods on both Friday and Saturday so keep an eye on the Highlands and Islands Weather page on Facebook as @MKN says. You used to be able to access the weather stations (of which he has a lot) independently but I think that feature might now be removed. 

[Djdazzle]

37 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Growing signs for an easing of the current settled conditions as we move further into June. 

Looking at four main model output at T+240:

So that's 12Z ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control

All keep the main cell of HP too far west and not well oriented to throw a meaningful ridge across the British Isles so the trough squeezes in from the north and east and introduces a much cooler air flow from the North or North West. The ECM is slowest of these to make the change and looks 24-36 hours "behind" GEM in its evolution but the net effect is the same. The extent of the new Scandinavian trough varies across the models.

Further into FI, GFS OP continues its theme of many days of moving the HP up toward Greenland and Iceland and even Control keeps heights to the north. 

I know many think we will have a fine and warm June but I'm far from convinced - the first half of the month looks a typical "flaming June" with plenty of rain and perhaps some quite cool conditions in marked contrast to what we are experiencing now and have done for several weeks.

You may be right but we were told that the second half of May would be cool and unsettled, which didn’t happen. Let’s see where we are in a few days because at the moment, the cool and unsettled charts are still well into FI.

[LRD]

25 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You may be right but we were told that the second half of May would be cool and unsettled, which didn’t happen. Let’s see where we are in a few days because at the moment, the cool and unsettled charts are still well into FI.

Exactly right. Like you, I recall a fair few predictions that had the second half of May written off in early May. I also recall some posts predicting a wash-out May in late April. And dire forecasts for Easter after the early April warm spell! And we've ended up with a stunning April and May for sun, warmth and dry.

Now we're getting rain-ageddon predictions for early June that would somehow be 'typical' (not sure it is that typical these days, especially in the south of the country)

I get that some people want to make a prediction whether it be based on science, gut instinct or a combination of both. And that's fine. Nothing wrong with that - that's what we're all here for, right - but if an individual keeps on making the same prediction and it never really comes off, well, it just comes across as hopecasting. 

I actually wouldn't mind an unsettled June - we're still not going on holiday, there will be no sport and we really need the rain - as long as July and August are warm and sunny with some storms thrown in. So, I'd like it to turn wetter for 2 or 3 weeks but (gut instinct and looking at the models) I just can not see any real significant change aside from, perhaps, a two-day showery spell here and there in amongst the dust and drought

Edited May 26, 2020 by LRD

[damianslaw]

On 25/05/2020 at 20:44, Man With Beard said:

 

Models largely reflect yesterday's output, rest of May dry, sunny and warm, very warm for many - lovely weather, with humidity levels not very high, low-mid 20's, some spots might inch into the high 20's.

As we move into June, signs of a change, the trough squeezing through heights to our SW and NE, turning unsettled and cool with a northerly sourced air flow. One of those scenarios where high pressure is going to become more and more stretched, its weakest spot in the middle i.e. UK, until it snaps.

Looking at the synoptics later this week and weekend - oh if only Dec-Feb a superby positioned high pressure drawing in a long drawn NE flow, how cold lovers yearn for such charts in winter, but alas these are far more likely in late Spring/early Summer.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Growing signs for an easing of the current settled conditions as we move further into June. 

Looking at four main model output at T+240:

So that's 12Z ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control

All keep the main cell of HP too far west and not well oriented to throw a meaningful ridge across the British Isles so the trough squeezes in from the north and east and introduces a much cooler air flow from the North or North West. The ECM is slowest of these to make the change and looks 24-36 hours "behind" GEM in its evolution but the net effect is the same. The extent of the new Scandinavian trough varies across the models.

Further into FI, GFS OP continues its theme of many days of moving the HP up toward Greenland and Iceland and even Control keeps heights to the north. 

I know many think we will have a fine and warm June but I'm far from convinced - the first half of the month looks a typical "flaming June" with plenty of rain and perhaps some quite cool conditions in marked contrast to what we are experiencing now and have done for several weeks.

 

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM tonight wants to keep the warmth right the way through to next Thursday for all, and even into next Friday in the south.

The warmth is pretty solid throughout in western areas, where for inland areas maximums of between 25C and 28C are likely day on day (yes I'm adding a couple of degrees onto raw temps   ) - the east sees the warmth tempered at the end of the week for a couple of days but then joins back in with the mid twenties afterwards (inland areas). Scotland likely to be at its warmest/hottest at the end of this week with the high twenties possible in favoured spots, but staying above average until the very end of next week.

Next to no rain to speak of for England/Wales

However - the ECM solution looks pretty much the best case scenario to keep things very warm and sunny throughout. It doesn't look that robust a set-up next week, so wouldn't be surprised to see a change, but it's certainly a strong possibility.

Amazing how two knowledgeable people can view the same outouts and come to almost entirely different conclusions - not criticising, just remarking at how there is a fair degree of art in interpreting outputs.

[Scorcher]

28 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Amazing how two knowledgeable people can view the same outouts and come to almost entirely different conclusions - not criticising, just remarking at how there is a fair degree of art in interpreting outputs.

Yes true. But if you read the posts carefully you can see that one of them is focusing on the reliable time frame, and the other is speculating a lot about June- which is still outside the reliable.

[Mr Frost]

7 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Oh! @Mr Frost. Would you looks at that! It's a plume, methinks!

    

 

It was me Pete and I still don’t see a Spanish plume arriving this month. 

The big two for the remainder of the month:

ECM:

 

UKMO:

 

Just for reference: 

What is a Spanish plume?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

A 'Spanish plume' is a weather setup which brings an increased risk of thunderstorms within an air mass which travels north from Iberia.

When those red and orange 850hpa temps are sizzling over parts of the UK with thunderstorms breaking out...that is what I would class as a Spanish plume. (On the charts above the plume is well South of the UK - barely even reaches France)

Really looking forward to a few days in the low 20’s Celsius here - Thursday through to Monday at the very least! 

I will go with Kinloss, Moray to be the hottest place in the UK and Ireland on either Friday or Saturday! (26/27C)

Places like Southend-On-Sea are in for a bit of a shock after the heat of Monday, Tuesday and tomorrow - barely scraping the high teens from Thursday onwards with that Easterly breeze picking up. 

Anyways - warm/hot rest of the week for many of us! Always great to see a (pretty much) nationwide warm/sunny spell! As others have said...glorious end to Spring!

June model/chart discussion can sod off for now. 

Enjoy what is left of Spring and all the best to you all!

Cheers! 

Edit: Very warm night down South currently. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Amazing how two knowledgeable people can view the same outouts and come to almost entirely different conclusions - not criticising, just remarking at how there is a fair degree of art in interpreting outputs.

Sorry if I was not clear enough in my post - I actually agree with @stodge@stodge, the ECM is warm until D9 for all, D10 for the south, but thereafter it looks likely to introduce cooler weather and possibly less settled weather depending on how far away the Atlantic ridge is. D9/D10 look like the points of change, which I think is what Stodge is saying, and I also think the ECM pattern in the days before that looks vulnerable, so yes it could be that this change happens even earlier. Of course anything beyond D7 is beyond detailed reliable predictions, so plenty left to be resolved. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

No flaming June on the GFS 18z at the end of this run its nothing else but flaming cold and unsettled. Temps in single digits for Central parts & London, yes SINGLE digits at 12z on 11th June.