Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

Oh! @Mr Frost. Would you looks at that! It's a plume, methinks!

    

But, just in case the 'no plumes' prediction wasn't yours, David (and to avoid me getting an eggy face) should you know whose it was, please kindly forward them my sanctimonious, self-satisfied grin!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO is a good run, looks to be a tad more uncertainty by day 6,that low to the SW looks to be out of harms way for now, but there is one to watch over Iceland at the same time frame, either side we have heights sliced through the centre and out into scandy. This is probably why some of the pros are using the words low confidence next week.. Looks like it could be later this week before we know for sure the direction of travel next week is. Alot to like up to that point though. 

Wouldn't take much for a link up with these heights would it! I keep thinking of 95 here, there were a few occasions when unsettled spells looked locked in but never really got locked in before heights regained control... Wishful thinking I know, but I just can't get it out my head... Sounds like a love song doesn't it..

Edited May 26, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Daniel*]

No flaming June to be seen here, west is best! 

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No flaming June to be seen here, west is best! 

You seem to be obsessed with a potential breakdown, which is still in FI. Those charts that you've posted do look cooler, but still dry for most- no end in sight to the dry weather from what I can see.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

You seem to be obsessed with a potential breakdown, which is still in FI. Those charts that you've posted do look cooler, but still dry for most- no end in sight to the dry weather from what I can see.

I just don’t think he’s a fan of warm, settled weather, as he usually posts charts which show the opposite.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I just don’t think he’s a fan of warm, settled weather, as he usually posts charts which show the opposite.

Aye, DJ...Every year. End of May. Just like clockwork!

[Jamie M]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No flaming June to be seen here, west is best! 

A breakdown that is still in FL. No end in sight for the dry weather we are having. 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I just don’t think he’s a fan of warm, settled weather, as he usually posts charts which show the opposite.

Not true... I think there should be more balance in here, and maybe I’m being hypocritical. Unfavourable output doesn’t seem to be posted in here, it does look to turn cooler around 2nd, detail still uncertain with precip I think there will be showers, models don’t tend to pick up well on.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Daniel*

[Djdazzle]

Just for balance: 2nd June 1975

And 4 days later:

 

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not true... I think there should be more balance in here, and maybe I’m being hypocritical. Unfavourable output doesn’t seem to be posted in here, it does look to turn cooler around 2nd, detail still uncertain with precip I think there will be showers, models don’t tend to pick up well on.

And once again the gfs backs down from any meaningfull rainfall on the 12z!!dry spell continues into far fi land!!!ukmo 12z looks good as well!!

[Scorcher]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not true... I think there should be more balance in here, and maybe I’m being hypocritical. Unfavourable output doesn’t seem to be posted in here, it does look to turn cooler around 2nd, detail still uncertain with precip I think there will be showers, models don’t tend to pick up well on.

Balance is all well and good, but when you're focused solely on FI, is that balance at all?

People are quite right to be focusing on warm, settled conditions as that is what is being shown in the reliable time frame.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Scorcher

[Djdazzle]

GEM looking good out to 168. If anything, it looks warmer with more of a southerly component.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

And once again the gfs backs down from any meaningfull rainfall on the 12z!!dry spell continues into far fi land!!!ukmo 12z looks good as well!!

There is some useful rain for many areas within day 7. It may remain more dry with U.K. close to ridge esp in W but the pattern is dissimilar to now, for much of Europe further east doesn’t look too pretty.

 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Balance is all well and good, but when you're focused solely on FI, is that balance at all?

People are quite right to be focusing on warm, settled conditions as that is what is being shown in the reliable time frame.

The same is being done with warm output, talk of hot weather well into first half of June? No one can say that. You read this thread, and you scratch your head sometimes. Whether it’s FI or not all output should be able to be discussed, particularly when there is some support for it. No one is saying the Atlantic is going to come crashing through, that doesn’t appear to be on the table. But as we enter June we do appear to be in a more perilous position with cooler and showery weather close to our shores...

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The same is being done with warm output, talk of hot weather well into first half of June? No one can say that. You read this thread, and you scratch your head sometimes. Whether it’s FI or not all output should be able to be discussed, particularly when there is some support for it. No one is saying the Atlantic is going to come crashing through, that doesn’t appear to be on the table. But as we enter June we do appear to be in a more perilous position with cooler and showery weather close to our shores...

Based on current output, I have to agree - a ridge stuck in the Atlantic will eventually bring cooler weather with it. 

But based on what's happened between FI and the "reliable" time frame in the past two months, I would give an equal chance of the predicted Atlantic ridge being at least 500 miles further east by T0! 

[Allseasons-Si]

@Daniel* does have a point though and it does look to cool off next week and a bit more unsettled too...

gefs ens and gefs mean at day ten

from that mean it looks like the hp cell will migrate west to allow a cooler feed from a northerly quadrant but whether this materializes is anyone's guess,meanwhile we have plenty of fine warm dry weather to enjoy this week and we will worry about any breakdown nearer the time

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@Daniel* does have a point though and it does look to cool off next week and a bit more unsettled too...

gefs ens and gefs mean at day ten

from that mean it looks like the hp cell will migrate west to allow a cooler feed from a northerly quadrant but whether this materializes is anyone's guess,meanwhile we have plenty of fine warm dry weather to enjoy this week and we will worry about any breakdown nearer the time

 

Right on si... But just look at the mean and the op again, completely on a different page,you would think they were separate models.. GFS just seems to be getting more clueless with each passing day.

Edited May 26, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, MATT said:

Right on si... But just look at the mean and the op again, completely on a different page,you would think they were separate models.. GFS just seems to be getting more clueless with each passing day.

Yes, I think the models are fairly consistent until about day 7, after that model guidance becomes muddled at best. So best to enjoy the coming week, and although there is a signal after that for a cooler flow with the high moving west to a variable extent, depending on the model or run,  it is too far away yet to be sure.  

But towards the timescale when the individual runs start to paint an incoherent pattern, it is as well to remain cognisant of the longer term models and signals, and with respect to these, the MO contingency planners forecast favours heat, and to a lesser extent, dry.  We will see...

Edited May 26, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Zak M]

12z ECM @144

Looks like it has shunted that low more SW.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Zak M

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

It's evident from the ouputs that Entropy is high after around 7 days.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm is an improvement from this morning,look at this day 6 chart(smacks lips)

Edited May 26, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[viking_smb]

8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @144

Looks like it has shunted that low more SW.

if it goes like that, what do we get then? 

[Allseasons-Si]

And 168,the high looks to have more influence into Scandi,will this stop the trough coming down from the NW?

still looking fine and settled up to this point.

 

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

if it goes like that, what do we get then? 

Probably not thunderstorms unfortunately

[Kentspur]

4 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Apart from that late May spell, 2012, (after an exceptionally warm late March spell), was unremittingly cool/cold and unsettled from about 9th April through to late July IIRC. Nothing like this year.

This could be more akin to 1989 when after a fine May, June had a cool unsettled spell first half (my only 2 weeks off during the whole summer) before things turned generally fine and very warm again.

Exactly my thinking I'm off middle 2 weeks of June fully expecting a washout typically! Very frustrating as I'm a keyworker have had 0 time off work to enjoy this extended early summer. Fully hoping the showers are pushed back past this period

Edited May 26, 2020 by Kentspur