Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[shaky]

Aaaand gfs does what gfs does best and brings back a low for 2 or 3 days between 168 and 216 hours!really amazing stuff from this model!!expecting a bit of low pressure influence but not to the gfs extent!!

[summer blizzard]

Euro retains the pressure build until day 8 (just about) and has support to day 6 from the UKMO.

[Guest]

The GFS 06Z run is massive wet outlier for the Midlands suggesting its over doing the depth and longevity of the trough.. 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Guest

[Zak M]

06z GFS still showing 14c uppers in the SE

Edited May 26, 2020 by Zak M

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS 06Z run is massive wet outlier for the Midlands suggesting its over doing the depth and longevity of the trough.. 

 

 

What is making the gfs do this!!its getting really hard to even follow this model anymore!!!there use to be a time even if it was an outlier at least the outlier use to come true once in a blue moon!!!i mean now it just flaps around!!ecm is true king its right more than 70 percent of the time!!then ukmo!!!by the way gfs control much better as is the mean!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looks like GFS 6z will possibly overdo the rainfall amounts... Or will it! There are some signs of low pressure from the South having more influence over the weather next week, but confidence is low on this.. Will it stay South or nudge further North to bring a rash of showers! It looks to stay on the warm side throughout.. And I still feel any unsettled spell will be brief, but the risk is there of a little top up for the Gardens, and I'm sure some are crying out for a little of the wet stuff.. Pardon the pun.. Low resolution graphics from the GFS make it look like a monsoon... Can't see it being that bad but the chances of some rain next week do seem to be on the increase for now.. 

[Leo97t]

Contingency planner is out and is very good

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Edited May 26, 2020 by Leo97t

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Contingency planner is out and is very good

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Very positive read, saying la nina is less likely to have any dramatic affect on our conditions.. Warmer water around our vicinity likely to lead to warmer than average conditions to.. Maybe not quite 2018 territory but looking good all the same. 

[Leo97t]

1 minute ago, MATT said:

Very positive read, saying la nina is less likely to have any dramatic affect on our conditions.. Warmer water around our vicinity likely to lead to warmer than average conditions to.. Maybe not quite 2018 territory but looking good all the same. 

Worth remembering that for the same period in 2018 only a 30-35% chance of much above average was given 

[Daniel*]

You can’t hold back the tide forever GEFS resolute with large pressure drop, showers are likely to be seen going into June.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You can’t hold back the tide forever GEFS resolute with large pressure drop, showers are likely to be seen going into June.

When it’s showing that at 120, I’ll be more convinced!

[Northern Sky]

33 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

When it’s showing that at 120, I’ll be more convinced!

Me too! Chasing rain has become like chasing snow in Winter for me. The promise and hope always dashed as the charts move into the reliable.

[Daniel*]

I keep hearing it is being pushed back well looking at the last 4 GEFS earliest 06z to 12z of yesterday I’m not really observing this, the mean MSLP bottoming out has been consecutively dropping too and for a slower recovery. Things look less settled than they did 24 hours ago if anything. 

[MP-R]

And with that, the GFS northerly solution disappeared and the latest run shows a 'net slipper' type low crossing the UK with high pressure building back over the top. An odd solution for sure, but not out of the question. The warm uppers that follow from the east are pretty decent. ECM, on the other hand, not having anything of it with a slightly more plausible continuation of what we have this week.

All eyes on future runs to see if a showery trough becomes a trend. Could do with a brief spell of rain to give the plants a little drink.

[Djdazzle]

26 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I keep hearing it is being pushed back well looking at the last 4 GEFS earliest 06z to 12z of yesterday I’m not really observing this, the mean MSLP bottoming out has been consecutively dropping too and for a slower recovery. Things look less settled than they did 24 hours ago if anything. 

ECM and GEM have pushed it back from what I can see, compared to their runs from yesterday. The GFS needs a bit of support and to show this breakdown a lot closer to the reliable. I think it’s fair to say that there will be a relaxing of pressure. How that pans out for the UK is still to be decided.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

All this talk of troughing appearing in the models, I hope this isnt going to turn into a 2012 style pattern when, after a nationwide taste of hot summer at the end of May, Scandi heights quickly retrogressed to Greenland
with the whole British Isles left stuck inside a big blob of green snot for 3 months!!....Fingers crossed the current runs are just outliers!!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

All this talk of troughing appearing in the models, I hope this isnt going to turn into a 2012 style pattern when, after a nationwide taste of hot summer at the end of May, Scandi heights quickly retrogressed to Greenland
with the whole British Isles left stuck inside a big blob of green snot for 3 months!!....Fingers crossed the current runs are just outliers!!! 

Perhaps you should read the met office contingency planners forecast. Little sign of anything to resemble a repeat of 2012..a bit of troughing doesn't spell the end of summer, just like High pressure now, does not mean a 2018 repeat is likely. I can't see anything currently to suggest big heights over Greenland, and even if it does, that doesn't necessarily spell the end of summer. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

All this talk of troughing appearing in the models, I hope this isnt going to turn into a 2012 style pattern when, after a nationwide taste of hot summer at the end of May, Scandi heights quickly retrogressed to Greenland
with the whole British Isles left stuck inside a big blob of green snot for 3 months!!....Fingers crossed the current runs are just outliers!!! 

This is my concern, once the pattern flips does it flip and then stuck with the trough overhead. Personally I think given SST's we are unlikely to see a re-run of 2012....(I hope, with everything crossed)

[Uncle_Barty]

8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

All this talk of troughing appearing in the models, I hope this isnt going to turn into a 2012 style pattern when, after a nationwide taste of hot summer at the end of May, Scandi heights quickly retrogressed to Greenland
with the whole British Isles left stuck inside a big blob of green snot for 3 months!!....Fingers crossed the current runs are just outliers!!! 

Apart from that late May spell, 2012, (after an exceptionally warm late March spell), was unremittingly cool/cold and unsettled from about 9th April through to late July IIRC. Nothing like this year.

This could be more akin to 1989 when after a fine May, June had a cool unsettled spell first half (my only 2 weeks off during the whole summer) before things turned generally fine and very warm again.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Uncle_Barty

[Frosty.]

Well what can I say, the GEFS 6z mean looks preety good for the next 180 hours at least!.,and further ahead may be nice to...now I’m not denying there are likely to be some cooler more changeable spells beyond the next week or so but to be honest, for late spring this is a great week for many and it whets the appetite for the long summer ahead!

[Zak M]

12z ICON isn't showing any signs of any unsettled weather and looks settled all the way through.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Zak M

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ICON isn't showing any signs of any unsettled weather and looks settled all the way through.

Yes Zak... Looks a good prognosis... I will take that young man.

[Djdazzle]

Settled but a bit uninspiring in the longer term.

[Zak M]

12z UKMO @120 

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks warm, dry,and settled out to 144...

144 looks the point were things become less certain with the Scandy high sat to the NE and troughs becoming more noticeable across Europe and in the Atlantic.

All in all though  another week of warm settled weather looks favourite..