Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You really want to know...

i do hope that's not right come day ten,even the mean and ens drop the pressure.

 

 

A humongous outlier regardless of the pressure drop!!! At some point the pressure was gona drop lol!!expecting maybe a better last couple of frames from ecm on 00z!!

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, shaky said:

A humongous outlier regardless of the pressure drop!!! At some point the pressure was gona drop lol!!expecting maybe a better last couple of frames from ecm on 00z!!

One of the most outrageous outliers of recent times...and doesn't fit in *nearly*

 

 

with a whole range of outs!!!..

that I shall drop in later....

 

@summed continues.... 

Edited May 25, 2020 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Icon 18z continues the summer theme!!less of a disrupting low in the atlantic and more of a ridge!!!

[Zak M]

I really like the 18z GFS, even though it probably won't verify and will probably change in the next run.

Why, you ask?

Because a cut off low brings some welcome rain to the British Isles at the start of June. But, as that cut off low pushes further south, it allows warm air to drift up from the continent (14c uppers in the east). As a result, along with the high temperatures and humidity, this could produce thunderstorms in southern areas.

Obviously because of the lack of aircraft data, this could change dramatically in the next few runs!

[shaky]

Ludicrous gfs 18z!!storms for a couple days from 168 hours and then back to heatwave conditions!!highly doubt it will still be there on the 00z!!

[ChannelThunder]

17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ludicrous gfs 18z!!storms for a couple days from 168 hours and then back to heatwave conditions!!highly doubt it will still be there on the 00z!!

A crazy run! Pure storm porn!

[Methuselah]

Look as if the mighty, peerless GFS 00Z has come good, this morning? Or at least less bad!

    

    

    

    

    

And, just like this time last-year, the GEFS ensembles are flapping about a lot?

    

    

So, next question: Which way will the ECM flap!

[carinthian]

Morning all. Looks like models build up the heat by Friday, especially the west and north of the British Isles with some warm uppers showing up. Hot spot , Lancashire coast !  Meanwhile  on the other side of the high cell , cool conditions remain in the Eastern Alps and yes snowfall last night down to 1800m. Enjoy your sunshine and warmth this week in blighty.

C

Edited May 26, 2020 by carinthian

[Iceaxecrampon]

Flaming June?!?

Just had a quick look at the 00Z GFS now that the Summer and hopefully staycation (unfurloughed for some of us key workers) holidays are approaching (it the locals allow).

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

39 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Looks like models build up the heat by Friday, especially the west and north of the British Isles with some warm uppers showing up. Hot spot , Lancashire coast !  Meanwhile  on the other side of the high cell , cool conditions remain in the Eastern Alps and yes snowfall last night down to 1800m. Enjoy your sunshine and warmth this week in blighty.

C

Can't believe i've just read that.......

[northwestsnow]

EC keeps the warmth for another 10 days this morning.

Jury out longer term,in the meantime lots of warm settled weather for the UK..

The best April May combo ever for warm dry weather..

[Djdazzle]

The models have certainly pulled back from the unsettled and cool charts that were showing yesterday (albeit in FI).

[Griff]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The models have certainly pulled back from the unsettled and cool charts that were showing yesterday (albeit in FI)

Amusing to see the different daily runs produce such variation... Pick a run for your favoured outcome? 

Good for a bit of drama I suppose! 

[Faronstream]

13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The models have certainly pulled back from the unsettled and cool charts that were showing yesterday (albeit in FI).

It still shows the high pressure connecting to greenland and soon after northern winds from 4-5th of june and forward. It is already guaranteed now that  we will experience colder than average conditions for the start of june

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

It still shows the high pressure connecting to greenland and soon after northern winds from 4-5th of june and forward. It is already guaranteed now that  we will experience colder than average conditions for the start of june

It's been pushed back though; It keeps getting pushed back. I do think that we will see HP in the Atlantic for a time, but the ridging for Greenland seems to be an outside bet at the moment.

[cheshire snow]

13 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

It still shows the high pressure connecting to greenland and soon after northern winds from 4-5th of june and forward. It is already guaranteed now that  we will experience colder than average conditions for the start of june

Guaranteed?

The 4th June is 9 days away..

Blimey I dont post in here that often but if I declared in winter that it would turn colder and snow in 9 days time I would be ripped to pieces and quite right to.

C.S

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Guaranteed?

The 4th June is 9 days away..

Blimey I dont post in here that often but if I declared in winter that it would turn colder and snow in 9 days time I would be ripped to pieces and quite right to.

C.S

Yes undoubtedly, always around 10+ days away

[ribster]

33 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes undoubtedly, always around 10+ days away

As are promises of a warm/settled June which is 5-35 days away, but little fuss was made of that...

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, ribster said:

As are promises of a warm/settled June which is 5-35 days away, but little fuss was made of that...

Don't think anyone has promised that; just that some background signals indicate that it is a possibility. It is a fact, though, that the really cool and unsettled charts have consistently been at 10+ days, and remain so. They may come to fruition, but it seems unlikely at the moment.

[shaky]

As i said last night 18z went off one as the 00z has bactracked and is absolutely fantastic!and if that was not enough ecm is pretty darn good this morning as well!!better than last nights 12z!!long may this continue?

[snowblizzard]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC keeps the warmth for another 10 days this morning.

Jury out longer term,in the meantime lots of warm settled weather for the UK..

The best April May combo ever for warm dry weather..

Agree, especially down here in SE England

At times, we seem to have our own micro climate being so close to the continent!

[Frosty.]

Lots of positives to take from the output so far today if it’s predominantly settled and warm you’re looking for?..in the meantime, enjoy this very summery week!

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[Man With Beard]

EC clusters suggest any breakdown - if it happens - is unlikely until at least 4th/5th June - ridging is strong in the UK area until then.

    

Rather a confused picture in the D11-D15 - very much depends if troughing sets up to our north or to our south, and both scenarios look possible.

Overall, ridging looks a lot less in control by this period and it will be hard to avoid some sort of rainy period between 5th and 10th June, but the caveat is that, in the past two months, the ECM ensembles have rather underdone ridging between D11 and D15.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters suggest any breakdown - if it happens - is unlikely until at least 4th/5th June - ridging is strong in the UK area until then.

    

Rather a confused picture in the D11-D15 - very much depends if troughing sets up to our north or to our south, and both scenarios look possible.

Overall, ridging looks a lot less in control by this period and it will be hard to avoid some sort of rainy period between 5th and 10th June, but the caveat is that, in the past two months, the ECM ensembles have rather underdone ridging between D11 and D15.

Maybe just hanging on to the settled weather but losing some of the warmth with the high positioned that far out west. All very knife-edge, could be pleasant, ok, or terrible if things fall into the wrong place!

[Northern Sky]

Fairly small differences in the positioning of the low at around 144hrs on the GFS 00z and the 06z runs but the difference on the UK weather is striking. I'm really hoping the 06z is nearer the mark because we badly need some rain. 

It settles down again after so something for everyone