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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is in cuckoo land according to the gefs ens,if we keep that mean line above +5 then we are OK 

graphe3_1000_263_28___.thumb.png.d5f4d311674ac104b941e4ae3a6d715d.png

 

Surprise surprise. It didn’t take a genius to work this one out. Or maybe it did?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Interestingly, though it is an outlier in terms of temperature, it isn't in terms of ppn.

I would take the PPN if it's in the form of thunderstorms though mate

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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is in cuckoo land according to the gefs ens,if we keep that mean line above +5 then we are OK 

graphe3_1000_263_28___.thumb.png.d5f4d311674ac104b941e4ae3a6d715d.png

 

The OP does look curious but Control is not atypical and it keeps the HP to the north west so a prolonged NE'ly flow for southern Britain with any real heat kept a very long way to the south. The mid-Atlantic HP option (though perhaps without the full ridging to Greenland) not quite as much of an outlier as some seem to be suggesting.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted (edited)

Getting close to month end, so my final set of CFS z500 anomalies for June, here's the last 8:

image.thumb.jpg.d09f3afd6e8da7af87b9fa35cfb272bc.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.82abb13e760dbe1d63584ef7bd150ea0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6c49dbe3a512fbaac18011a9a32e5b91.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f8a6e385c4d9fae07f92af88889fba59.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.683b10220709f91ebdf1daac77f9b704.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.342c0d8aaaeb53fb2622bffad7bbde48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.72bb7ed5d35a87244aa18ef385bb0319.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.49a662ec200237f709981144ccba8675.jpg

The strength of the red anomalies on some of those are more representative of winter, usually summer gives weak signals.  Not this year, the future looks blocked, where those blocks set up and for how long will make a big difference to weather in the UK, of course...and differences for parts of the UK as well, but washout it definitely isn't.  

There's definitely an Azores -> Scandi high signal on 5 of those, maybe more...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
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Posted

Very good from the ECM 12z @120

ECM1-120.gif

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Here's 144, I would happily take that

ECM1-144 (1).gif

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

And at 144 also

ECM1-144.thumb.gif.f8c8d1dd9c187721db3f97a758ecb5aa.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Here's 144, I would happily take that

ECM1-144 (1).gif

Add in NH view to that Zak, the upstream wave pattern is looking quite important to me as these big anticyclones move west to east:

image.thumb.jpg.9d0aa280fea86465ad43e2d6d28b346b.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Here's 144, I would happily take that

ECM1-144 (1).gif

It's coming...Yes, yes yes. yeeeeeeesssssssss...Oh yesss!!:oldgrin:

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
Just now, General Cluster said:

It's coming...Yes, yes yes. yeeeeeeesssssssss...Oh yesss!!:oldgrin:

What is LOL?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What is LOL?

How am I supposed to know?:crazy:

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What is LOL?

Whatever it is, it is already here....

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.7df664e048322703b03de3dd6ba2257a.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.882c97a616a63d7551363d8fc21b9148.jpg

Should continue well from here...possible cut off low developing?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, MildCarlilse said:

‘Feels like 4c’...It does! We need high pressure here and soon.

95C04451-269C-4481-A85D-7C1CFF13BF3E.jpeg

A8629919-6553-4A4F-A22A-E31EC55E8006.jpeg

Try stepping a few paces, away from your fridge, MC? It can work wonders, you know...:oldlaugh:

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Messy T192, should recover though, and we do need the rain, so I'm told.  Here, we had enough in the winter, thanks!

image.thumb.jpg.33fac8bdab85159807cce3d9b5cb13fa.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Awful ECM from day 6 for the south but I suspect its a marginal position and will change 

Eh? This is an awful chart?

image.thumb.png.c1d4aab2e80ad30f6dada2c63322d0f3.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Awful ECM from day 6 for the south but I suspect its a marginal position and will change 

Looks nothing like the 00z or the GEM. One of those hard to resolve features which is giving very different runs as we go along. Might take a day or two more to really nail this one.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, Leo97t said:

Sorry Day 8 then...

Fair enough. But day 8, not worth fretting about  I doubt that it will be the same on the mean.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d56959caf109d8a1a910503dae463d98.jpg

Not sure what would happen next, but if the ridge did push over on top of the almost cut off low, then there could be some heat....pointless speculating at this stage, as FI is about T96 at this point, I think!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d56959caf109d8a1a910503dae463d98.jpg

Not sure what would happen next, but if the ridge did push over on top of the almost cut off low, then there could be some heat....pointless speculating at this stage, as FI is about T96 at this point, I think!

Those sort of set ups don’t tend to bring any heat. Looks showery and warm-ish to me. Be interested to see how that fits into the ecm ensemble given it’s so different to this mornings run!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those sort of set ups don’t tend to bring any heat. Looks showery and warm-ish to me. Be interested to see how that fits into the ecm ensemble given it’s so different to this mornings run!

Yeah, maybe, I knew there was a reason I gave up the frame by frame ECM commentary, it is because I'm crap at it.  24hrs between frames is often too difficult to predict.  So why am I doing it again, simple, boredom, it is something to do at 7pm every night, so expect more rubbish commentary from me, as it is part of my lockdown day now, maybe I'll try and do it in the style of a celebrity sports commentator tomorrow...

Edited by Mike Poole
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